Pollard sounds off on NIL, changing landscape of college athletics in interview on Murphy & Andy

[JUKEBOX]

I think it's most likely that the top 32 teams will split off and make their own NFL-lite league. Maybe conferences like the B1G and SEC will drop their dead weight if possible.

Then maybe the other teams can re-orient around delivering a more classic college football experience on a more level playing field.

At least this seems like it's the general direction things are going.

 

[VeloClone]

I think it's most likely that the top 32 teams will split off and make their own NFL-lite league. Maybe conferences like the B1G and SEC will drop their dead weight if possible.

Then maybe the other teams can re-orient around delivering a more classic college football experience on a more level playing field.

At least this seems like it's the general direction things are going.

I just don't see them dropping much. They might consider dropping the absolute bottom dwellers like Vanderbilt and Rutgers, but do you really see the Big 10 teams dropping Indiana who has been in the Big 10 since 1899? That league is so tied up in the history of the Big 10 being around and intact for so long that they are going to want to carry "Big 10" into whatever this new structure becomes. Also, and maybe most importantly, all of those teams are going to need wins and keeping the bottom half or at least most of the bottom half of those leagues builds in wins for the blue bloods.

 

[JUKEBOX]

I just don't see them dropping much. They might consider dropping the absolute bottom dwellers like Vanderbilt and Rutgers, but do you really see the Big 10 teams dropping Indiana who has been in the Big 10 since 1899? They are so tied up in the history of the Big 10 being around and intact for so long that they are going to want to carry "Big 10" into whatever this new structure becomes. Also, and maybe most importantly, all of those teams are going to need wins and keeping the bottom half or at least most of the bottom half of those leagues builds in wins for the blue bloods.

Yeah there might be too many legal obstacles too to remove some of those teams but who knows. I could also see the B1G + SEC just poaching a handful of the top brands in the Pac-12 and ACC and then splitting off (so it might be slightly >32).

If that happens, then maybe the rest of college football can fix the league to make it a bit more sensible.

 

[WhoISthis]

Yeah there might be too many legal obstacles too to remove some of those teams but who knows. I could also see the B1G + SEC just poaching a handful of the top brands in the Pac-12 and ACC and then splitting off (so it might be slightly >32).

If that happens, then maybe the rest of college football can fix the league to make it a bit more sensible.

It’ll be a top-40 or top-48 at least if there is a split.

The real risk to Iowa St is Big 12 dissolution before the ACC and PAC12 lose schools. That would jeopardize our chances of being in the “best of the rest” conference. Even then, it wound a tough position without rules changes on transfers.

 

[JUKEBOX]

It’ll be a top-40 or top-48 at least if there is a split.

The real risk to Iowa St is Big 12 dissolution before the ACC and PAC12 lose schools. That would jeopardize our chances of being in the “best of the rest” conference. Even then, it wound a tough position without rules changes on transfers.

The only thing with that is I feel like the Big 12 would have already gone through dissolution by now if it was going to happen.

I'm not that in-sync with current team valuations, but I would imagine there are only a handful of high-profile brands that the B1G and SEC think are worth adding that would raise their payouts.

 

[BCClone]

One thing to remember is that large donations generally don’t happen at once. Many times a 10MM donation is 1MM over ten years. This chews up some donors.

 

[JUKEBOX]

I thought I read that ESPN thinks an expanded college football post-season (extended playoff) would be huge $$$, so I think their thought process is if they can acquire the most-valuable brands and have the flexibility to create this extended playoff (by breaking off the NCAA), they can make a lot of money.

However, I think they're under the assumption that the fans of the teams left-out will care about this NFL-lite league (I won't). But maybe the casual fans make up a far larger demographic, so they won't lose much.

Edit: Saw this from a quick search:

One informed source said the CFP's revenue in expansion could hit as much as $1.4 billion per year. It currently averages $600 million per year.

 

[VeloClone]

One thing to remember is that large donations generally don’t happen at once. Many times a 10MM donation is 1MM over ten years. This chews up some donors.

Yeah, I like to have my annual $1M donation taken out of my first paycheck of the fiscal year.

 

[WhoISthis]

The only thing with that is I feel like the Big 12 would have already gone through dissolution by now if it was going to happen.

I'm not that in-sync with current team valuations, but I would imagine there are only a handful of high-profile brands that the B1G and SEC think are worth adding that would raise their payouts.

Let’s hope so.

The P12 and ACC are more unstable than the Big 12.

Do B12 presidents think the most valuable brands in those conferences will accept making $50 million/year less than the P2? While also increasingly being viewed as in an inferior conference? Things like geography and tradition tend to get overcome when it’s at least $500 million at stake every decade.

Why would B12 schools want to become satellite or orphans for marginally more revenue, making it much harder for the Big 12 to be the base of the best of the rest? The only R8 that benefits is WVU, who likely would be okay with 2 years in the current ACC, followed by the ACC leftovers being the base of best rest.

I hope the B12 presidents consider that If the P12 is open to abandoning tradition, adding Midwest brands they have for decades said were unworthy, for little material gain compared to P2, they’re just waiting for the BIG invite. Which would come eventually to preserve the Rose Bowl via a Pac12 division in the BIG

 

[SCNCY]

I thought I read that ESPN thinks an expanded college football post-season (extended playoff) would be huge $$$, so I think their thought process is if they can acquire the most-valuable brands and have the flexibility to create this extended playoff (by breaking off the NCAA), they can make a lot of money.

However, I think they're under the assumption that the fans of the teams left-out will care about this NFL-lite league (I won't). But maybe the casual fans make up a far larger demographic, so they won't lose much.

Edit: Saw this from a quick search:

On one side, I agree with you. What makes college sports great is the connection people have with the university. I only became an ISU fan when I started attending college. If the top brands leave, that's fine, I think there will still be enough interest among those left over to have a solid product through that personal connection. Thus, why I think it can be a struggle for a break off league to survive

However, for those brands that do break off, I think the increase in sports betting will keep non-connected fans interested in those schools, thus driving up viewership. Look at college gameday now with Bear, making predictions on sports bets and such along with other various shows on espn that review sports betting.

 

[WhoISthis]

On one side, I agree with you. What makes college sports great is the connection people have with the university. I only became an ISU fan when I started attending college. If the top brands leave, that's fine, I think there will still be enough interest among those left over to have a solid product through that personal connection. Thus, why I think it can be a struggle for a break off league to survive

However, for those brands that do break off, I think the increase in sports betting will keep non-connected fans interested in those schools, thus driving up viewership. Look at college gameday now with Bear, making predictions on sports bets and such along with other various shows on espn that review sports betting.

On your last point, a top 40 or top 48 is a big tent. It’s the networks serving as commissioner to make the sport more national at the top level. Better product identification and organization of a P2 north-south split of the biggest brands in all the current markets

 

[JUKEBOX]

Let’s hope so.

The P12 and ACC are more unstable than the Big 12.

Do B12 presidents think the most valuable brands in those conferences will accept making $50 million/year less than the P2? While also increasingly being viewed as in an inferior conference? Things like geography and tradition tend to get overcome when it’s at least $500 million at stake every decade.

Why would B12 schools want to become satellite or orphans for marginally more revenue, making it much harder for the Big 12 to be the base of the best of the rest? The only R8 that benefits is WVU, who likely would be okay with 2 years in the current ACC, followed by the ACC leftovers being the base of best rest.

I hope the B12 presidents consider that If the P12 is open to abandoning tradition, adding Midwest brands they have for decades said were unworthy, for little material gain compared to P2, they’re just waiting for the BIG invite. Which would come eventually to preserve the Rose Bowl via a Pac12 division in the BIG

I don't think anyone would be happy about being relegated to what would be considered by the media a tier-2 league, but if adding an Oklahoma State/Iowa State or whoever is left in the Big 12 doesn't raise the payouts for everyone else in the SEC/B1G, they're not getting added IMO.

 

[CascadeClone]

On your last point, a top 40 or top 48 is a big tent. It’s the networks serving as commissioner to make the sport more national at the top level. Better product identification and organization of a P2 north-south split of the biggest brands in all the current markets

I don't think its that many teams. I think it is closer to 20 than 40. Just not that many schools with enough big money donors. It won't be whole conferences; it will be the biggest money teams in each conference.

Although... if schools spin off their football teams to independent license holding companies... then those companies would make for good investment opportunities. That will attract money not just from existing donors but also just from people with money to invest in something. Then yeah, I could see 40-60 teams in a big tent. It could all operate more like English soccer; maybe there would even be relegation. And maybe we WILL have a Russian billionaire owning the Iowa State Cyclone football franchise...

As we all kind of "rosterbate" about the different possible outcomes, the thing that strikes me is that almost EVERY outcome is better for the sport than the current status of no salary caps, unlimited tampering, and zero competitive balance.

 

[cykadelic2]

Let’s hope so.

The P12 and ACC are more unstable than the Big 12.

Do B12 presidents think the most valuable brands in those conferences will accept making $50 million/year less than the P2? While also increasingly being viewed as in an inferior conference? Things like geography and tradition tend to get overcome when it’s at least $500 million at stake every decade.

Why would B12 schools want to become satellite or orphans for marginally more revenue, making it much harder for the Big 12 to be the base of the best of the rest? The only R8 that benefits is WVU, who likely would be okay with 2 years in the current ACC, followed by the ACC leftovers being the base of best rest.

I hope the B12 presidents consider that If the P12 is open to abandoning tradition, adding Midwest brands they have for decades said were unworthy, for little material gain compared to P2, they’re just waiting for the BIG invite. Which would come eventually to preserve the Rose Bowl via a Pac12 division in the BIG

Not sure how you ascertain the ACC is more unstable than the B12 given their GOR runs through 2036. Now their contract sucks but that doesn't equate to instability.

With the exception of yourself, anybody else can also see that new TV deal payouts for all or part of the R8 (minus WV) would be higher by affiliation in some aspect with the P12 than by remaining in the currently projected B12 and any perceived instability issues would be erased with a P12/R7 GOR through the mid 2030s.

 

[WhoISthis]

I don't think anyone would be happy about being relegated to what would be considered by the media a tier-2 league, but if adding an Oklahoma State/Iowa State or whoever is left in the Big 12 doesn't raise the payouts for everyone else in the SEC/B1G, they're not getting added IMO.

We already are, and have been, relegated to a second tier brand conference.

OUT just helped the P12 and ACC not be at risk of being 3rd tier.

There’s no need to talk about R8 to P2. Not happening.

It’s whether the R8 foolishly disband for 4-6 schools to join the ACC and Pac12. Possible, but it doesn’t change being in the 2nd tier, and recent ratings suggest the gap in pay between the 3 weak P5s won’t be large enough to matter.

For Iowa St, particularly without AAU, the most viable long term outcome is hoping the more valuable R8 don’t chase the short term satisfaction of thinking they are moving up by fleeing to ACC or P12

 

[JUKEBOX]

We already are, and have been, relegated to a second tier brand conference.

OUT just helped the P12 and ACC not be at risk of being 3rd tier.

There’s no need to talk about R8 to P2. Not happening.

It’s whether the R8 foolishly disband for 4-6 schools to join the ACC and Pac12. Possible, but it doesn’t change being in the 2nd tier, and recent ratings suggest the gap in pay between the 3 weak P5s won’t be large enough to matter.

For Iowa St, particularly without AAU, the most viable long term outcome is hoping the more valuable R8 don’t chase the short term satisfaction of thinking they are moving up by fleeing to ACC or P12

Yes I would think those other conferences will be either the same or worse off than the Big 12 if their top brands leave for P2.

 

[WhoISthis]

Not sure how you ascertain the ACC is more unstable than the B12 given their GOR runs through 2036. Now their contract sucks but that doesn't equate to instability.

With the exception of yourself, anybody else can also see that new TV deal payouts for all or part of the R8 (minus WV) would be higher by affiliation in some aspect with the P12 than by remaining in the currently projected B12 and any perceived instability issues would be erased with a P12/R7 GOR through the mid 2030s.

The GOR is only as good as the vote count against dissolution.

Only about 4 schools want to be free agents come GOR expiration in 2036, particularly after over a decade of being 2nd class in the south. And those top schools are looking at $500 million reasons to not wait.

The only thing several ACC schools have to lock in parity to the current ACC contract is selling their dissolution vote to ESPN. The others will use the length of the GOR to get some concessions in the breakup.

Again, you keep struggling with a very basic concept.. It’s not that adding a few B12 schools to the P12 wouldn’t be higher, that’s not been claimed.

It is that risk-adjusted, it is not high enough. It doesn’t make the P12 anything but clear 2nd class, while ruining tradition and adding non-peer academics. For the Big 12, they’re volunteering to become the WVU for no material change, and likely an eventual inferior best of the rest conference.

You think the P12 is going to be good with traveling to Midwest mediocre schools for still 2nd tier money, but won’t work with the BIG to setup a mutually acceptable arrangement to preserve as much of the P12 as possible?

There is no chance the P12 is signing a GOR that long. The P12 has basically said as much. They blame some of their current predicament on the length of their last deal, but that’s likely a ruse for the fact the top brands have no desire be locked in as second class for that long.

 

[mwwbbfan]

Not sure if this has been posted but is an interesting read. ND AD Swarbrick lays out where in mid-2030 that a group breaks off that are associated with the universities in name only. Talks about whether school presidents would be willing to have a relationship like that. My thought is why would kids making 6-7 figures a year want to go to class.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick says total Division I realignment is ‘inevitable’ - Sports Illustrated

Wholesale change is unavoidable in college athletics. The Fighting Irish athletic director thinks a total realignment of Division I is coming with it.

www.si.com

 

[VeloClone]

Not sure if this has been posted but is an interesting read. ND AD Swarbrick lays out where in mid-2030 that a group breaks off that are associated with the universities in name only. Talks about whether school presidents would be willing to have a relationship like that. My thought is why would kids making 6-7 figures a year want to go to class.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick says total Division I realignment is ‘inevitable’ - Sports Illustrated

Wholesale change is unavoidable in college athletics. The Fighting Irish athletic director thinks a total realignment of Division I is coming with it.

www.si.com

I think a lot of the times it is a case of trying to talk something into existence.

 

[Gunnerclone]

So all we have to do is find a Russian billionaire who wants to rehabilitate his image. No problem.

We can even put his superyacht on Lake Panorama!

There are a few that could stretch waterline to waterline down at the Narrows.