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***Unofficial Confidence Check: Will We Make the NCAA Tourney 12/15/21**

Cyclad said:
Hope you are right.
I significantly question wins at TT, WV and OU. Quite optimistic
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Understood. Which is why I stated the part at the bottom. Even if we split and go 9-9 we are still in good shape. Even if we still lose to KU, BU, UT at home that's 6 - 12 conference, so 19 wins before the B12 tournament. I think we make it with 20 wins.
 
Cyclad said:
Hope you are right.
I significantly question wins at TT, WV and OU. Quite optimistic
Click to expand...
OK, who has better quality wins than we do? Villanova? Purdue? USC? UCLA? Why some of our fans don’t give enough credit to this team for what they have accomplished thus far. Alabama was manhandled by Memphis. What is Alabama’s chance of making to the tournamen?
 
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I don't think many fans appreciate how well we're set up based on the quantitative NET rankings. Every B12 team except KSU is ranked in the top 75, and KSU is 91 (there's TWENTY P5 teams ranked below KSU). Which means as of now, we'll play 11 QUAD 1 games in the b12, and every other game except KSU at home will be quad 2. That is insane - so while wins will be tough to come back, there will be zero bad losses (other than KSU at home).

Also, why do so many fans mention the NIT? This always seems to be a popular prediction, and yet we've played in the NIT 3 times in 40+ years.

I don't care who the wins are against, if we're 7-11 in the b12 this year, we're a lock for the tourney.

Put me down for 85% chance of making it.
 
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Should be 13-0 in non-con (Missouri is.... not good). Something about this team really seems to resonate with the Hilton Crowd. Cyclones will be no worse than 6-3 at home , including some some monster, signature wins. They should be able to steal a couple on the road. That would put them at 8-10 in conference, 21-10 overall with some really nice, resume building victories. With that record, Big 12 conference tournament could very well turn into Hilton South again. 90% likelihood of making the Big Dance.
 
brokenloginagain said:
I don't care who the wins are against, if we're 7-11 in the b12 this year, we're a lock for the tourney.

Put me down for 85% chance of making it.
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Of the ~35 teams that are not auto-bids, typically only a handful have losing conference records. But think 9-11 or 8-10. 4 games under .500, maybe one or 2 a year TOPS. It would totally depend on the bubble this year, how deep it is or isn't.

I would just say, it's possible, anything but a lock.
 
My heart says 99% but my head says 60%.

I mean what was the preseason O/U? I'm excited as the next guy, but we've only played a handful of decent teams.
 
According to an informative post earlier in this thread. Only one team in the last 18 seasons, that was ranked 11th at this point in the season, did not make the NCAA Tournament.

Therefore, I am 94.4% confident we will be dancing come March. Also, agree with many others, start 2 and 4 in the conference and we are looking at 8 to 10 wins in the Big 12; as long as we don't have multiple injuries.
 
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CascadeClone said:
Of the ~35 teams that are not auto-bids, typically only a handful have losing conference records. But think 9-11 or 8-10. 4 games under .500, maybe one or 2 a year TOPS. It would totally depend on the bubble this year, how deep it is or isn't.

I would just say, it's possible, anything but a lock.
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Historically speaking - the Big12 is nearly an annual 7-bid league. And, almost annually a team with a losing record is continuing to the big dance. In recent history, of the 7-11 teams one has made it and one has not.
2020-21 - 7 Big12 teams made tournament, all with winning conference records (9W-8L or better thanks to ISU going 0-18)
2019-20 - no NCAA tournament
2018-19 - 7 Big12 teams made tournament, one was 7-11 in the league and made 2nd round. The other 7-11 team (8th in Big 12) made NIT Final 4
2017-18 - 7 Big12 teams made tournament, 6th-9th tied at 8W-10L. Two made big dance and ended the year 19-15 and 18-14. The other two made NIT
2016-17 - 6 Big12 teams made tournament, 7th&8th were 6W-12L, including TCU who won NIT after ending conference play on a 7-game losing streak
2015-16 - 7 Big12 teams made tournament

It all depends on the top of the conference. If the top 2 teams finish something like 16-2, then 7-11 could finish 7th or even 6th in the league. The opposite happened a year ago, ISU finished 0-18 and 7 teams finished the year with winning records.

If we pair 13-0 non-conf with a 7-11 Big12 season, and a couple of those 7 being the ranked Big12 teams at Hilton, it will be enough. If we sweep the bottom 3 teams to get 6 wins, and only get one win from the top 6, then it isn't enough.
 
100%. The same percentage of the swing set that guy just put up today tumbles over in the wind.
 
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