***Unofficial Confidence Check: Will We Make the NCAA Tourney 12/15/21**

[TXCyclones]

SE Louisiana - W
Chicago State - W
Baylor - L
Texas Tech - W
@Oklahoma - W
@Kansas - L
Texas - W
@texas Tech - W
TCU - W
@OSU - L
Missouri - W
Kansas - L
@texas - L
@WVU - W
KSU - W
@TCU - W
OU - W
WVU - W
@KSU - W
OSU - W
@BU - L

25 - 6 Heading into the B12 Tourney. But let's say we split every series that puts us at 22 - 9, before the B12. If we win the first round that gives us another to 23-9. We make the NCAA easily.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I'd put it at about 70-75% confident. I can kind of see a future where we start conference play at 12-0, then go 7-11 in Big 12 play, or 6-12 with a win in the Big 12 Tourney and get put on the 11 seed play-in line.

 

[madguy30]

If we win 2 of our first 6 big12 games I’ll feel pretty confident.

I'm probably 60ish% now but if that happens move me into the 70s/80s.

 

[1961Cylones]

If we can stay healthy and manage a .500 or better finish going into the Big12 tourney, and we don't lose in the first round in KC, I'm gonna say we're in.

Team health is the huge key. Playing the kind of defense these guys are playing takes extreme discipline and can wear you out, mentally and physically, especially come tourney time with 2 games in 3 days every week as long as you're still in it...

No matter what, I'm thrilled with the dedication all our players have shown. Everybody has to be on the same page for for the traps and switches to be effective and not just open the door for someone else...

Defense is truly the great equalizer, it just might keep us in enough games to make some noise in March.

 

[madguy30]

If we go 3-3 through the first 6 games we are a lock. 8-10 is in and frankly 7-11 is probably in this year. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded and the Big 10 and ACC are down. 2-4 is going to be really good and 1-5 is still decent.

I'd think 7-11 would have to depend on who the 7 wins was like steal one at Texas or something.

 

[Stangguy]

25%

 

[Cyinthenorth]

25%

Crazy to think the current #11 team in the country only has a 25% shot at making the tournament

 

[NorthCyd]

69%

 

[kevdiv48]

Crazy to think the current #11 team in the country only has a 25% shot at making the tournament

Oklahoma in the 03-04 season was the most recent team to be ranked 11th at this point of the season and not make the tournament.

 

[cymac2408]

91%, I’m all in. Wait make that 100% then.

 

[RonBurgundy]

 

[DSM4Cy]

75%. I think we should get to at least 7-11 in the league but it's such a tough conference that it's impossible to guarantee this right now.

 

[davegilbertson]

Going to try to make this a weekly thread for the next 10-11 weeks and track results.

What percent confidence do you have that we will make the tournament?

why no poll?

 

[Stangguy]

Crazy to think the current #11 team in the country only has a 25% shot at making the tournament

That’s 25% higher than I gave them a month ago.

 

[DoctorZ]

20%. Too many kicks to the groin in my 60+ years associated with the Cyclones to believe otherwise.

 

[davegilbertson]

I think we make it, but we’re going to have like a 8 game stretch where we go 2-6 and people will freak out and start questioning the TJ hire again.

I feel like this team would have to go full Hyde and completely reverse all progress to lose the good will they've built up.

They can go 2-6, but if they continue to hustle, play D and keep things close I don't think people will turn and freak out.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I feel like this team would have to go full Hyde and completely reverse all progress to lose the good will they've built up.

They can go 2-6, but if they continue to hustle, play D and keep things close I don't think people will turn and freak out.

I was speaking specifically the people of CF

 

[davegilbertson]

I was speaking specifically the people of CF

I guess I'm likely giving CF too much credit. I forgot I try not to venture into gameday threads anymore.

 

[Cyclad]

Going to try to make this a weekly thread for the next 10-11 weeks and track results.

What percent confidence do you have that we will make the tournament?

50%
Love TJ
LOVE this team
We are good. Not sure how good yet. Quality win at Creighton, Xavier win was big time, but they were not at full strength, Memphis was bad when we played them, iowa mid B10 team. Oregon State has proven to be bad this year. Other games - should have won and did.
Conference looking super tough. Wins will come hard, and lots of time for people to figure out what we do. That said, we will play many competitive games. Just depends on how they split - for or against us.
Need Quad 1 and 2 wins. Most of those opportunities yet to be played.

 

[Cyclad]

SE Louisiana - W
Chicago State - W
Baylor - L
Texas Tech - W
@Oklahoma - W
@Kansas - L
Texas - W
@texas Tech - W
TCU - W
@OSU - L
Missouri - W
Kansas - L
@texas - L
@WVU - W
KSU - W
@TCU - W
OU - W
WVU - W
@KSU - W
OSU - W
@BU - L

25 - 6 Heading into the B12 Tourney. But let's say we split every series that puts us at 22 - 9, before the B12. If we win the first round that gives us another to 23-9. We make the NCAA easily.

Hope you are right.
I significantly question wins at TT, WV and OU. Quite optimistic