Perspective from the Big Ten and some much needed clarifications

[BCClone]

My apologies for the wall of text.

TL/DR Version.
Greed and hypocrisy of the way things are going is killing off what makes college athletics special and driving away fans.

Best way to change course is to implement an 8 team playoff of only conference champions. From each of the remaining 8 FBS conferences. Each of the remaining P4 carve up the Big XII and go to 16 teams with four pods of four teams. Best two teams in the conference play in the CCG.

Gives it a march madness feal where the champion is determined by a scoreboard an not some rigged arbitrary ever changing opinion of a select few insiders.

That also preserves the integrity of the bowl system that gives fans of lesser programs something to look forward too while absorbing losses that prop up the so called brand schools.

p.s. It's also the best way to screw over OUT, the SEC and E$PN.

I would say take all FBS champs, and you can do the march madness deal where they boost the payouts for each round. You get 40MM for each round that you have a team there. It pays for the extra game and rewards the conference for better teams and not just getting there.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

There is absolutely no way the PAC 12 should stand pat and do nothing here. I would have to question the sanity of their commissioner in that case.

Their TV deal is awful (33 MM per school compared to B1G's 54 MM) — lowest of all the P5.

How do you think Southern Cal, steeped in tradition, likes making over 20 MM less in TV revenue per than Northwestern?

If the PAC does nothing, its worth won't magically go up in any meaningful way for the next round of TV deals. They'll be left in the dust by the SEC & B1G, and really they already have been lapped a couple times here.

They need to get into the central time zone desperately.

Here's the thing: no P5 conference is going to telegraph any expansion plan right now. Of course they're going to say they're not interested in expanding.

There are also wild cards out there who could turn this whole thing on its head; namely the streaming services who might decide now is the time to jump in. If that happens, all bets are off.

The "alliance" is nothing more than the B1G, Pac, and ACC working together to block the SEC from stacking the playoff deck in their favor. This whole deal caught the SEC with their pants down and they are going to block the current 12 team playoff expansion plan until they can agree on a fair setup. Of course these three want the Big 12 to fall apart, that opens up an auto bid that could eventually be an at large for their conference. The end goal here will be for the B1G and Pac to pick up remaining B1g 12 teams but they can't say that right now. There is NO way the Pac can afford to sit this round out or they will be financially screwed. The whole Amazon deal needs to be factored in here as well. Either way it's all moot, I don't see either one of those schools breaking the GOR and leaving the ACC.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

To me, this is all about the big 10 wanting acc schools / ND... can't have them now due to the grant of rights. But no need to expand now. They also want to keep ou/tx out of the sec for as long as possible...

So, my take on the big ten's moves

1) Delay ou/tx departures to keep them out of the sec for as long as possible (keep status quo); so, make sure acc, pac do not add any b12 teams, if none of the "Big 8" teams get p4 invites, they will keep the big 12 intact for as long as possible.

The three conferences have zero control over this. It will literally boil down to OU and Texas breaking the contract and writing a check. It really boils down to when does that number hit a point both schools are comfortable with and they will be gone. You won't convince me that the Pac and B1G aren't having offline conversations with the Big 12 or the hateful 8.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

UNC might be worth more if one considers their basketball tradition and IF Mack Brown can build their FB program into a perennial top 10-15 team. Plus with their academics- UNC would be very attractive to the Big10. Would be willing to bet the Big10 will be all over UNC and Virginia- more so than USC & Oregon.

Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, UNC & Virginia would give the Big10 a solid east coast presence.

Depends on what your definition of "presence" is. Adding Rutgers and Maryland was a bust since cable subscriptions are dying at a rapid pace and UNC and UVA don't care about football. You can slice it and dice it any way you like but this whole deal is 100% about football, just ask KU... Sure, Mack could build something long term but he's also old AF and this could all end up being a flash in the pan.

 

[cygrads]

The three conferences have zero control over this. It will literally boil down to OU and Texas breaking the contract and writing a check. It really boils down to when does that number hit a point both schools are comfortable with and they will be gone. You won't convince me that the Pac and B1G aren't having offline conversations with the Big 12 or the hateful 8.

Can we please stop referring to the 8 remaining schools as 'hateful 8' - instead can we just refer to ourselves as the Big 8?

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Can we please stop referring to the 8 remaining schools as 'hateful 8' - instead can we just refer to ourselves as the Big 8?

Oh lighten up, hateful 8 is used in jest and the Big 8 got ol yellerd back in the md 90's.

 

[cymonw1980]

The three conferences have zero control over this. It will literally boil down to OU and Texas breaking the contract and writing a check. It really boils down to when does that number hit a point both schools are comfortable with and they will be gone. You won't convince me that the Pac and B1G aren't having offline conversations with the Big 12 or the hateful 8.

The issue is not leaving the conference and the 75M (or whatever the exact exit fee is per school). Sure they can pay the fee and leave.... but the GOR means the league owns their TV rights until 2025. That is the reason they need the B12 dissolved. As long as the B12 exists, the B12 owns their TV rights until 2025.

Now, exactly what that means is more difficult to determine and would be fought over in court. All of the ACC schools and ND are looking at this because if tx/ou can get out early and what they need to pay, etc is going to be interesting to watch (clemson, fsu, unc, etc. can make a lot more money than what they are making in the ACC but their GOR is preventing them from leaving)..

But it is not just pay exit fee and leave. If they do, they can't get any tv money until 2025... or at least they will need to go to court in order to try to get their tv rights back before 2025... That is a much bigger deal than the $75M exit fee.


So...

That is why espn is trying to move teams out of the B12. Find homes for 4-6 more schools and those members can vote to dissolve the conference. Again, this is NOT ABOUT THE EXIT FEES... those can be solved. But if B12 exists the schools that leave, leave their TV rights behind until 2025 (same for ISU if they got an invite). This is why there is a chance that B12 lasts a little while longer.. Could be as long as 4 yrs. That means P5 status for another 4 yrs or so and then once tx/ou are gone, you have had 4 yrs to find a landing spot build your plan...

So, b10 wants to keep B12 together as long as they can... by forming an "alliance" with the pac, acc and all of them agreeing not to take any of the remaining teams, means the best option for the 8 is to stay in the B12 and keep it together until GOR expires.

 

[BCClone]

On GoRs, does the conference own just their home games or all games? Can the SEC televise their away games? I think we got rid of the one game for tier 3s so we can keep all their home games off TV (do a pay per view so we take even more money from them).

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Depends on what your definition of "presence" is. Adding Rutgers and Maryland was a bust since cable subscriptions are dying at a rapid pace and UNC and UVA don't care about football. You can slice it and dice it any way you like but this whole deal is 100% about football, just ask KU... Sure, Mack could build something long term but he's also old AF and this could all end up being a flash in the pan.

I think you might be wrong that cable subscriptions are a dying breed. Unless you are one of the top 10 or 15 schools with a large following and are willing to pay for streaming services, it's not the way to go. Streaming services alone won't earn teams the money they earn from cable subscriptions. I believe there will be a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services going forward as conferences strike new deals. FYI: Hulu, YouTube TV, Fubo, Sling, etc., are streaming services that look very much like cable TV in how they deliver programs. Also, we are reaching the saturation point of streaming services as everyone wants a piece of the pie at ever-increasing prices. When is it enough?

The B1G is the first up for renewal in 2025. If what former Commissioner Delany said shortly before retiring is true, the B1G will have a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services for its new deal. The last year of the FOX (cable) deal with the B1G has it paying each member $62 million. Even before the Texas/OU to the SEC news, there have been former FOX and B1G people saying the new B1G deal could be in the area of $78-$ 80 million per team. The B1G is not going to add any team until after the new deal is signed. I'm sure the B1G will have clauses built in to add teams, then renegotiate for more money per team so that the B1G can stay up with the Joneses.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I think you might be wrong that cable subscriptions are a dying breed. Unless you are one of the top 10 or 15 schools with a large following and are willing to pay for streaming services, it's not the way to go. Streaming services alone won't earn teams the money they earn from cable subscriptions. I believe there will be a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services going forward as conferences strike new deals. FYI: Hulu, YouTube TV, Fubo, Sling, etc., are streaming services that look very much like cable TV in how they deliver programs. Also, we are reaching the saturation point of streaming services as everyone wants a piece of the pie at ever-increasing prices. When is it enough?

The B1G is the first up for renewal in 2025. If what former Commissioner Delany said shortly before retiring is true, the B1G will have a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services for its new deal. The last year of the FOX (cable) deal with the B1G has it paying each member $62 million. Even before the Texas/OU to the SEC news, there have been former FOX and B1G people saying the new B1G deal could be in the area of $78-$ 80 million per team. The B1G is not going to add any team until after the new deal is signed. I'm sure the B1G will have clauses built in to add teams, then renegotiate for more money per team so that the B1G can stay up with the Joneses.

Cable subscriptions are dwindling at a rapid pace and that isn't speculation or an opinion. The numbers don't lie.

 

[RustShack]

I think you might be wrong that cable subscriptions are a dying breed. Unless you are one of the top 10 or 15 schools with a large following and are willing to pay for streaming services, it's not the way to go. Streaming services alone won't earn teams the money they earn from cable subscriptions. I believe there will be a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services going forward as conferences strike new deals. FYI: Hulu, YouTube TV, Fubo, Sling, etc., are streaming services that look very much like cable TV in how they deliver programs. Also, we are reaching the saturation point of streaming services as everyone wants a piece of the pie at ever-increasing prices. When is it enough?

The B1G is the first up for renewal in 2025. If what former Commissioner Delany said shortly before retiring is true, the B1G will have a combination of a cable subscription and streaming services for its new deal. The last year of the FOX (cable) deal with the B1G has it paying each member $62 million. Even before the Texas/OU to the SEC news, there have been former FOX and B1G people saying the new B1G deal could be in the area of $78-$ 80 million per team. The B1G is not going to add any team until after the new deal is signed. I'm sure the B1G will have clauses built in to add teams, then renegotiate for more money per team so that the B1G can stay up with the Joneses.

It’s a lot easier for Fox to say no to adding money for more teams after the deal is signed than it is before they are added. Especially when someone like CBS could be interested in rejoining the game. They didn’t want to overpay for the SEC, but they also didn’t know ESPN was getting Texas and Oklahoma over there.

 

[knowlesjam]

So it's about time we start telling the SEC and OUT to go to hell.

First step there is to keep the CFP at 4. This eliminates them from getting 4-6 teams in the CFP if it expands to 12. Addition of OU to the conference makes it more difficult for Alabama, A&M, LSU, Georgia, etc. to make it to the CFP and bumps the non-CFP bowl teams down a notch.

 

[knowlesjam]

Can we please stop referring to the 8 remaining schools as 'hateful 8' - instead can we just refer to ourselves as the Big 8?

Every time I hear the hateful 8 I think about Uma and the Crazy 88's...okay, maybe just Uma.

 

[SCNCY]

On GoRs, does the conference own just their home games or all games? Can the SEC televise their away games? I think we got rid of the one game for tier 3s so we can keep all their home games off TV (do a pay per view so we take even more money from them).

Pretty sure its home games. For non-conference games, its the homes teams media contract that is enabled.

So for Texas and OU, their away games in the SEC will be under the SEC contract. But home games for Texas and OU will be under the Big 12 contract.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Cable subscriptions are dwindling at a rapid pace and that isn't speculation or an opinion. The numbers don't lie.

I think you both are right in that cable subs are diminishing rapidly and that new deals will be a mix of both traditional cable and streaming services.

However one important thing to know is that the streaming services that offer live tv are operating very much like cable and the prices are almost the same to what cable costs were. For example every single person that has youtube tv has the big ten network. Just like with cable it doesn't matter if you watch or not they are still getting a cut. So to say that streaming is so different then cable is a bit of an overstatement.

Now could amazon or apple come in and disrupt everything? Of course but they have been very slow to get involved and noting on the immediate horizon says they will. The Thursday night NFL thing was a trial that didn't go to well for amazon but they do have cash to burn.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

First step there is to keep the CFP at 4. This eliminates them from getting 4-6 teams in the CFP if it expands to 12. Addition of OU to the conference makes it more difficult for Alabama, A&M, LSU, Georgia, etc. to make it to the CFP and bumps the non-CFP bowl teams down a notch.

Keeping the CFP at 4 without being sure of the Big 12 dissolving and us landing in a P4 league would be a disastrous move. If the Big 12 sticks around with UCF and BYU etc. then the best way to continue to be considered a power league is to expand the playoff, especially if the expansion guarantees X number of conference champions a spot. Otherwise the Big 12 will probably never make the CFP again and we are as good as G5.

 

[Cloneon]

To me, this is all about the big 10 wanting acc schools / ND... can't have them now due to the grant of rights. But no need to expand now. They also want to keep ou/tx out of the sec for as long as possible...

So, my take on the big ten's moves

1) Delay ou/tx departures to keep them out of the sec for as long as possible (keep status quo); so, make sure acc, pac do not add any b12 teams, if none of the "Big 8" teams get p4 invites, they will keep the big 12 intact for as long as possible.

2) Play the long game... they are already confident in short / mid term revenue, no need for them to add.

3) Keep pac / acc from making a move becoming a bigger player by forming an "aliance"; also helps them keep sec from gaining control - keep acc/pac on your side by painting sec as the bad guys

4) Once the GoR for UVA/UNC open up, take them and ND, maybe GT or another school (clemson? depends how important aau is).... plus in 10 yrs the gap between acc and b10 will be so big... may be realistic to buy out the last 5 yrs (acc deal is BAD).

Net, acc better be playing the b10... or they get crushed once gor expires. B12 teams may have a shot to join the PAC if they can keep up, make themselves attractive while the b10 waits out the acc GOR.. If Pac is not raided, they will need to make a move to keep up with 20 team sec/b10 leagues.

As someone already posted and as this post confirms, the first B8 flinch is going to blow a hole in the hull of this 'logical' strategy.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Now could amazon or apple come in and disrupt everything? Of course but they have been very slow to get involved and noting on the immediate horizon says they will. The Thursday night NFL thing was a trial that didn't go to well for amazon but they do have cash to burn.

Sounds like you don’t subscribe to the Patreon!

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Cable subscriptions are dwindling at a rapid pace and that isn't speculation or an opinion. The numbers don't lie.

In general, cable subscriptions are dwindling, but you have to put it into context. Are there enough sports fans (hardcore) willing to drop cable and subscribe to streaming services in the format ESPN wants with ESPN+? No, because lost in it is the casual fan who isn't willing to pay directly for services if they have no intention of watching outside of occasional viewing. A handful of teams can survive on streaming services alone, like Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State, to name a few. Not enough to create a super league everyone fears since the SEC grabbed UT and OU. Notre Dame sees pushback by some of their casual fans (subway fans) about some games appearing only on Peacock (subscription). Also, the majority of screaming services growth is non-sports-related. It's Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. ESPN+ is packaged with Disney+ and Hulu as a way into the viewers' peripherals, and that still hasn't translated into a major uptick for ESPN+.

The B1G, the Pac12, and the ACC fear losing control of schools in their conference because one entity (ESPN) is trying to become a monopoly. I wouldn't be surprised to see FOX, NBC, and CBS form an alliance, like the conferences, to bid for College Football Playoffs. The games (semi-finals & finals) could rotate yearly from network to network.

 

[Cloneon]

That's exactly what I said. That's also the reason why Texas and Oklahoma wanted to disassociate from the rest of the Big 12. My point is that the B1G is not going to ally in a meaningful way i.e. rights distribution or anything like that because it would split their pie more ways than it would grow it.

Everyone talks about 'splitting the pie'. That was the B12 argument for not adding teams and look where that got us. I look at it more as making the pie bigger and 'renegotiating' to compensate. Also, see how fragile the B12 was. To assume the B1G is any less fragile, I believe is a huge mistake. OSU leaves and either PSU or MU and that conference is hurting. The SEC (converted to a new division) would then cherry pick B1G to gain geographical exposure for 'brand' advertising and the dominos would fall similar to what we're seeing with the B12. Don't kid yourself. Brain trusts are strategizing all these possibilities.