***Official 2021 NCAA Tournament Thread***

[HoopsTournament]

Both Oregon State and Rutgers won tournament games on Friday to end long droughts. Oregon State won their first tournament game since 1982 and Rutgers won their first since 1983. Other than Nebraska, who has never won an NCAA Tournament game, those were the two longest droughts for major conference teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Tournament Droughts

Both Oregon State and Rutgers won tournament games on Friday to end long droughts. Oregon State won their first tournament game since 1982 ...

hoopstournament.blogspot.com

 

[HoopsTournament]

Four teams have ended tournament win droughts of 38 years or more so far in this year's tournament. All of those rank in the top 20 longest droughts snapped in tournament history.

Tournament Droughts - Part 2

Four teams have ended tournament win droughts of 38 years or more so far in this year's tournament. All of those rank in the top 20 longes...

hoopstournament.blogspot.com

 

[dafarmer]

You can't have a win drought if you have never won. We need a list of the teams who have never won in the tournament so that Nebraska would be on the list.

 

[HoopsTournament]

In 64-team era, Syracuse might be the most difficult to gauge when it comes tournament expectation. I need your guidance about the details on some of this ... it ranges from R64 upset losses as a 2/4 seed (Richmond, Vermont) , reaching Final Four as a 4 seed (twice?), national title as a 3; Elite 8 as a 10 seed (?) ... it's all over the map.

I calculated the avg wins by seed for Syracuse (not counting First Four) for each seed since 1985 and then compared that to the wins for Syracuse for each seed. Here is a comparison of how they have done vs. the expected number of wins.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	7​	-0.37​
3 to 4	10​	0.70​
5 to 8	9​	-0.08​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	28​	0.30​

Filtering on tournaments since 2000, it is similar, but a bigger negative for higher seeds.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	2​	-0.85​
3 to 4	7​	0.56​
5 to 8	4​	-0.26​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	15​	0.40​

 

[HoopsTournament]

You can't have a win drought if you have never won. We need a list of the teams who have never won in the tournament so that Nebraska would be on the list.

Nebraska is the only team from a major conference that hasn't won.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Nebraska is the only team from a major conference that hasn't won.

Through yesterday's games, there are 92 teams that have played in the tournament that have never won. There are also many teams that have not been in the tournament, but I don't have that list.

Out of those that have been in the tournament, here are the most losses without a win:

• Eastern Kentucky 8
• Boise State, Long Island, Louisiana-Monroe, Nebraska 7
• Delaware, Lafayette, Mississippi Valley, South Carolina State 5
• Air Force, Akron, Alabama State, Coastal Carolina, Colgate, Hofstra, NC Central 4
• 16 teams with 3
• 26 teams with 2
• 33 teams with 1

Teams playing today that could get their first win:

Grand Canyon (Playing first game) vs. Iowa
Abilene Christian (0-1) vs. Texas
Eastern Washington (0-2) vs. Kansas
North Carolina-Greensboro (0-3) vs. Florida State

I hope that all but Abilene Christian get their first win.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I calculated the avg wins by seed for Syracuse (not counting First Four) for each seed since 1985 and then compared that to the wins for Syracuse for each seed. Here is a comparison of how they have done vs. the expected number of wins.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	7​	-0.37​
3 to 4	10​	0.70​
5 to 8	9​	-0.08​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	28​	0.30​

Filtering on tournaments since 2000, it is similar, but a bigger negative for higher seeds.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	2​	-0.85​
3 to 4	7​	0.56​
5 to 8	4​	-0.26​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	15​	0.40​

For comparison, here is how Iowa State has done (since 1985)

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	2​	-0.87​
3 to 4	3​	-0.42​
5 to 8	8​	0.05​
9+	6​	-0.04​
Grand Total	19​	-0.15​

 

[HoopsTournament]

For comparison, here is how Iowa State has done (since 1985)

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	2​	-0.87​
3 to 4	3​	-0.42​
5 to 8	8​	0.05​
9+	6​	-0.04​
Grand Total	19​	-0.15​

And Iowa

	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	1​	0.63​
3 to 4	3​	-0.98​
5 to 8	9​	0.19​
9+	4​	-0.11​
Grand Total	17​	-0.06​

​

​

 

[HoopsTournament]

And Iowa

	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	1​	0.63​
3 to 4	3​	-0.98​
5 to 8	9​	0.19​
9+	4​	-0.11​
Grand Total	17​	-0.06​

​

​

And Kansas

	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	21​	-0.21​
3 to 4	9​	0.10​
5 to 8	4​	1.51​
Grand Total	34​	0.07​

 

[cyclones500]

I calculated the avg wins by seed for Syracuse (not counting First Four) for each seed since 1985 and then compared that to the wins for Syracuse for each seed. Here is a comparison of how they have done vs. the expected number of wins.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	7​	-0.37​
3 to 4	10​	0.70​
5 to 8	9​	-0.08​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	28​	0.30​

Filtering on tournaments since 2000, it is similar, but a bigger negative for higher seeds.

Seed Group	Tournaments	Avg Diff
1 to 2	2​	-0.85​
3 to 4	7​	0.56​
5 to 8	4​	-0.26​
9+	2​	2.38​
Grand Total	15​	0.40​

Thanks for compiling. If I'm interpreting correctly, Syracuse historically does better in 4 seed range or even double-digit than as a 1 or 2? Just making sure I'm viewing the numbers the right way.

 

[heitclone]

In 64-team era, Syracuse might be the most difficult to gauge when it comes tournament expectation. I need your guidance about the details on some of this ... it ranges from R64 upset losses as a 2/4 seed (Richmond, Vermont) , reaching Final Four as a 4 seed (twice?), national title as a 3; Elite 8 as a 10 seed (?) ... it's all over the map.

That zone is tough, can make or break some teams. Their success is really match up based.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Thanks for compiling. If I'm interpreting correctly, Syracuse historically does better in 4 seed range or even double-digit than as a 1 or 2? Just making sure I'm viewing the numbers the right way.

They do better as compared to how they are expected to do.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Wright with 6 assists already.

 

[Drew0311]

Every coach I wanted for Iowa State got destroyed yesterday. So I’m good with TJ now. Haha

 

[AgronAlum]

Yikes at that foul.

 

[simply1]

Yikes at that foul.

Extremely dangerous

 

[NoCreativity]

Mckinely Wright looks like a decent player. Surprised we didn't go after him harder.

 

[madguy30]

Pac 12 teams apparently don't think they're bad.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Pac 12 teams apparently don't think they're bad.

So far: Big 12, Pac 12 - Good
Big 10, ACC - Bad

 

[HoopsTournament]

Florida State trying to salvage the ACC's tournament.

Right now, ACC has #11 Syracuse, #4 Florida State and #4 Virginia left. Even if Florida State and Virginia win today (Virginia is iffy), I could see all 3 losing in next Round.