I always chuckle a bit when people use Johnny Orr as an example of Iowa State hiring an established major college coach. The times were different when it came to coach's salaries.
Also Johnny was a Midwest guy. He grew up in Illinois, went to college at Beloit and coached 9 years at Dubuque Senior in the 1950's. Plus, he was starting to feel the pressure at Michigan. He was 3 years removed from a great Final Four team and his last 2 teams were under .500 in Big 10 play.
ISU isn't going to be the landing place for guys like Beilein or Sampson who have buzz around their prospects, who will have opportunities (if they want) for more money and better geographic fits. Penn State makes a lot of sense for Beilein. Also Notre Dame or Boston College if those jobs open up. Also is Boeheim going to call it quits after this year?
I think the only way ISU gets an established P5 coach is under similar circumstances as the ISU hiring of Johnny. A coach who has had extended success, but might be going through a down couple years and feeling job security pressures. Mark Turgeon would fit this description.
The other group are hopeful Coach K successors. I would be surprised if his successor hasn't already been determined. But Chris Collins, Bobby Hurley or Steve Wojciechowski are all having lukewarm success at their current schools. They may want to new challenge to improve their odds at becoming a future HC at Duke (if that is their dream job).