Random ISU/Tech Notes (from a Tech fan)

Greetings CycyloneFanatic, here's a few random notes I put together and posted on a Tech board. Thought it might interest a few of you as well.

Iowa State has not thrown the ball very much this year. 90 drop backs by a QB, and they've been sacked (4) more than they've thrown a TD (2).

40% of Tech's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or a first down. 30% of Iowa State's drop backs resulted in touchdowns or first downs.

Iowa State has been 2x as likely this year to throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield (15% of attempts v. Tech's 8% of attempts). 50% of ISU's yards have come after the catch, while 63% of Tech's yards have come after the catch.

Tech's wide receivers have been pretty dynamic with the ball in their hands, being credited with 34 missed tackles to Iowa State's 10. On a per catch basis, though, it's not that much of a difference: Tech's wide receivers have avoided .33 tackles per catch, while Iowa State's have avoided .21 tackles per catch.

From a wide receiver standpoint, it's basically a one-man show for Iowa State: Xavier Hutchinson has 23 targets on the year, with the next highest WR having 7 targets. Tech has 6 WRs with 7 or more targets.

Breece Hall has carried the rushing load (66 carries). 36% of his carries have gone for a first down or TD. Sarodorick & Xavier White have also been pretty productive, with 45% of their carries going for a first down or TD. From a missed tackle per touch standpoint, Breece Hall might be the best in the conference, although Sarodorick isn't too far behind him.

Tech has really tackled well this year. Huge improvement from prior years. .10 missed tackles per snap for Tech's defense. Iowa State is also a really sound tackling team (.18 missed tackles per snap).

One major difference between the teams is how quick the QB gets the ball out. On 61% of Purdy's dropbacks, it took more than 2.5 seconds for the ball to leave his hand. For Columbi/Bowman, the ball was in their hand longer than 2.5 seconds on only 24% of dropbacks.

Both teams throw it to receivers or TEs lined up in the slot at about the same rate (36% of attempts for Tech, 31% for Iowa State).

JaQuan Bailey (Iowa State's pass rusher) has played a ton of snaps. He must be just an iron man. He also lines up on both sides, will be a serious problem for us in general, and a big reason why Tech will want to get the ball out quick.

Kene Nwangwu has returned 8 kicks this year for an average of 33 yards per return. Tech has only returned 2 kicks for an average of 15 yards per return. This could be something to watch.
Guessing my ISU peers will disagree with me, but Will McDonald is our best pass rusher.
 
Guessing my ISU peers will disagree with me, but Will McDonald is our best pass rusher.

They are equally good at what they do. McDonald is probably our best speed rusher, while I think Bailey can mix it up and beat a guy with an inside move as well.

I'm excited to have them both. Watching us put pressure on the QB is a beautiful thing.
 
Guessing my ISU peers will disagree with me, but Will McDonald is our best pass rusher.
If you listen to our coaches, they appear to be more concerned with Bailey, which might make McDonald the more effective pass rusher on Saturday.

I don't expect Iowa State to have more than 1 sack on Saturday. It's not really worth sending DEs screaming up field against Tech's offense, unless it's a 3rd and long type situation, which we have avoided for the most part this year.

Still, UT did not have a sack but their pass rush still impacted the game quite a bit.

Like I said above, if Tech can't block Iowa State's defensive ends, we will just run our "now" & "bubble" RPOs over and over again. It can work but it will take perfect 12+ play drives to convert into actual points. And it's going to be nearly impossible for Tech to win the game that way unless weird stuff happens like Tech being 2+ TO margin.
 
Wow, I was really scared after all those great stats OP showed us about hot TTU is so much better......

Edit: "not"
 
From browsing the Tech boards:
They want Columbi to start
They don't like Wells
They have 2 TE commits they want to hang on to so they can have what we have in the TE room
 
I'm expecting a *close* game. But I think a distinction for close should be made because I expect it to track a lot like last year's game, which was not close at all in reality.

If Iowa State defends Tech the way they did last year, Tech will run the ball a ton and throw a ton of underneath stuff. We are liable to have 4-5 drives cross Iowa State's 30 yard line or so.

The problem will be converting those drives into TDs. And an ever bigger problem will be, even if we happen to capitalize on all those drives, will it even be enough.
It's very strange that two of the biggest butt whippings put on Tech in some time were games where ISU outscored Tech by an average of 13 points per game.

These past two games could've (should've?) been as bad as 66-10 was.
 
It's very strange that two of the biggest butt whippings put on Tech in some time were games where ISU outscored Tech by an average of 13 points per game.

These past two games could've (should've?) been as bad as 66-10 was.
I was at the game. It was a blood bath, and if it wasn't for the blocked kick, it probably would have been about 56-0.
 
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Don't worry about that. Glad to have TTU fans on the board.

In seriousness, you can afford to be patient with Wells. You all (y'all, I guess) should do so.

Garbage time or not, I think Columbi is the right move. If nothing else because he came over with Wells (correct?).

Guns Up, Cheers.
 
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I wouldn't be so quick to say that. Colombi came in during garbage time. I doubt he would have fared as well had he started the game.
This. The same time Colombi came in, Walters and Heft were trying to list all of the young players suddenly on the field. I remember they started out with T.J. Tampa and D.J. Miller in the secondary.
 
The silly penalty by our wide receiver for lining up wrong erased our touchdown and led to the field goal attempt, which led to the fluke touchdown by Tech. That's a 14 point turnaround. Instead of being up 21-7 at half, we would have been up 28-0 and the route is on.
 
It's crazy how successful Campbell was against a NFL caliber coach.
For those of us who live in AZ now - we are not sure if he is indeed an NFL caliber coach He got to draft his favorite QB (all 5'8" of him) and trade away a helluva great RB in David Johnson and we still aren't sniffing the playoffs.
 
The silly penalty by our wide receiver for lining up wrong erased our touchdown and led to the field goal attempt, which led to the fluke touchdown by Tech. That's a 14 point turnaround. Instead of being up 21-7 at half, we would have been up 28-0 and the route is on.
It should've been way worse. The only time Tech's offense was that totally shut out was in 2018 in Manhattan, when we had 1 scholarship QB available with torn ligaments in his knee and it was also like -4 degrees.

Through the first 4 possessions of the game, it was 21-7 even though Iowa State had gained over 98% of the total available yards, with the missing 2%, like you said, wiped away by an alignment penalty. Meanwhile, Tech had about 50 yards on 17 plays.
 

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