Positive *Informative* Covid News

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I'm an optimist so I'm expecting the positive good news on COVID to continue and to accelerate. However, I did see a couple of very large yard parties in the last few days where there were at least 30 people there with no social distancing, no masks and some of the people were elderly, although most of the people were middle aged 40-50 with kids. The scenes reminded me of the pictures we have seen of the college students getting together at bars. Hopefully no one at the parties had the virus.
 
I'm an optimist so I'm expecting the positive good news on COVID to continue and to accelerate. However, I did see a couple of very large yard parties in the last few days where there were at least 30 people there with no social distancing, no masks and some of the people were elderly, although most of the people were middle aged 40-50 with kids. The scenes reminded me of the pictures we have seen of the college students getting together at bars. Hopefully no one at the parties had the virus.

Ya kinda get the feeling that we're letting the guard down. My hope is with information available that people who are putting themselves at risk, are making sure to not be around others that are high risk afterward.

I'd bet many are rolling with the 'no symptoms, no problem' approach though since that came out.
 
Apologies if this doesn't fit the thread, but this feels like the best place for info. My family is about to move from MN to IA, and saw this on the WaPo front page today. Can someone shed some light? I'd trust a local source over a national source, so wondering if WaPo's numbers are right or not?

Iowa_COVID.jpg
 
Apologies if this doesn't fit the thread, but this feels like the best place for info. My family is about to move from MN to IA, and saw this on the WaPo front page today. Can someone shed some light? I'd trust a local source over a national source, so wondering if WaPo's numbers are right or not?

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Ames and Iowa City are showing how to keep numbers high.
 
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Apologies if this doesn't fit the thread, but this feels like the best place for info. My family is about to move from MN to IA, and saw this on the WaPo front page today. Can someone shed some light? I'd trust a local source over a national source, so wondering if WaPo's numbers are right or not?

View attachment 74900

It's spreading rapidly in college towns since classes started.
 
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Apologies if this doesn't fit the thread, but this feels like the best place for info. My family is about to move from MN to IA, and saw this on the WaPo front page today. Can someone shed some light? I'd trust a local source over a national source, so wondering if WaPo's numbers are right or not?

View attachment 74900

I think antigen tests were included or there was a backlog/false earlier reporting or something for Iowa.
 
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This makes sense. I was just about to post the graphic below. Looks like there was a big one-day spike, assuming from a backlog. So, still increasing but not as bad as the original WaPo graphic made it seem.

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Yeah it's one thing among many things that needs to be consistent across the board, and communicated clearly.
 
Anyone keep tabs on the CDC's all cause mortality database? If I'm reading this correctly, the U.S. dropped below the normal weekly "expected deaths" the week of 8/15. There might still be some updating to do yet, though. I'm guessing last week isn't accurate yet as it's only showing 61% of the expected deaths, and it usually takes a week or two to get all the deaths fully accounted for in the database.

Also, if you scroll down further, Iowa is only 2% over the expected death rate for the year, so far (102%). This gives a good perspective on the actual mortality effect from the virus. New Jersey, for example is at 136%, so they've had 36% more deaths than average up to this point in the year.

 
This makes sense. I was just about to post the graphic below. Looks like there was a big one-day spike, assuming from a backlog. So, still increasing but not as bad as the original WaPo graphic made it seem.

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That huge spike is the antigen tests that had been performed since the start of this up to that day. The conveniently months of tests into one day. There were roughly1300-1400 that should be deducted from that day.
 
That huge spike is the antigen tests that had been performed since the start of this up to that day. The conveniently months of tests into one day. There were roughly1300-1400 that should be deducted from that day.

Not disagreeing with you on that one. I think it still would have been a record number of cases even w/o the antigen tests being added though.

This one was more of an extreme example of adding back dated cases, but it seems like this has been done many times. Makes me realize that a month from now we’ll have a day where we add a bunch of cases, and the trend will be dismissed because they happened in late August.
 
So with rapid tests possibly becoming a thing, and maybe T-cell tests, and maybe getting a better read for how many people really do have it or have had it, any guesses for how many cases total have happened in one way (past infections) or another (current) in the U.S.?

World O Meters shows 6.2 million right now. Months ago they (CDC IIRC?) were estimating possibly 10X the amount of reported cases. That was while mitigation seemed stronger at least for crowds and gatherings. So that kind of number has to have expanded, correct?

Is it crazy to guess at least 80 million total infections?

For anyone wondering the importance of this, imo if they find further evidence that T-Cells prevent much beyond a mild reinfection and less likely to be contagious, it's a big deal.

EDIT: This is NOT a downplay of Covid.
 
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So with rapid tests possibly becoming a thing, and maybe T-cell tests, and maybe getting a better read for how many people really do have it or have had it, any guesses for how many cases total have happened in one way (past infections) or another (current) in the U.S.?

World O Meters shows 6.2 million right now. Months ago they (CDC IIRC?) were estimating possibly 10X the amount of reported cases. That was while mitigation seemed stronger at least for crowds and gatherings. So that kind of number has to have expanded, correct?

Is it crazy to guess at least 80 million total infections?

For anyone wondering the importance of this, imo if they find further evidence that T-Cells prevent much beyond a mild reinfection and less likely to be contagious, it's a big deal.

EDIT: This is NOT a downplay of Covid.
I usually back calculate it based on an assumed IFR of 0.5%. I'm starting to think that might be too high, though. But, if we use 0.5% and 188,000 deaths, you get 37.6 million cases. If the IFR is closer to 0.3%, you get 62.7 million cases. The problem is you need the actual number of cases to know the true IFR. I don't think we'll ever really know what either of them are. 80 million doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.
 
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Well, I guess there is *one* piece of positive news in this...

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...but there are three bad ones.


The bottom is being paid not to work. Its why you see help wanted signs
This is an interesting read about the pre-existing immunity discussion.

Another important caveat of these T cell studies is that they have not established that the presence of cross-reactive memory T cells is associated with protection against COVID-19 or with less severe disease in people. While they offer clues that provide a foundation for further studies, scientists are still trying to understand what their actual contribution to the immune response might be, if any.

Indeed, these studies have been misinterpreted and used by some individuals to propagate unfounded claims regarding the level of immunity in the population, including Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Another is ophthalmologist James Todaro, who claimed that these findings indicate that herd immunity could be achieved “once only 10-20% are infected with SARS-CoV-2”, which is much lower than most studies have estimated. Todaro has also appeared in a viral video as part of America’s Frontline Doctors, a group that has spread false claims about the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19.

“These are only speculations (no data) and because of their potential importance, it is key for scientists to test these ideas as quickly as possible. While scientists are racing as fast as possible, sophisticated research like this usually takes a lot of time and resources,” Crotty tweeted.

He also advised against relying on T cells for protection and neglecting to take other precautions. “T cells generally don’t completely prevent infections, they limit disease (make it shorter and/or less serious). Thus, wearing a mask is much more effective than hoping you and the people around you have pre-existing T cell memory. Wearing a mask stops infections,” he explained.


I'm not saying what's false and what's not because I don't know, but nothing has been validate because to do that scientifically generally takes years to generations. Too many accuse others of false claims while making equally unsubstantiated claims based on their studies. Studies are all over the place. This only makes open honest discussion and science harder. Science is initially wrong in its theories far more than it is right, but the process eventually gets there. I wish a more engineer like thought process was used for those actually implementing policy where a cost vs reward basis was used rather than treating everything like a worldwide lab experiment. What I'll call pop science favors the lock downs, whereas mainstream traditional science reflects more of what Sweden did. I think it is crazy when Fauci says he is not an economist, he is in the role of a policy maker, not a lab scientist.
 
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