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Positive *Informative* Covid News

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cycloneG said:
Empirical studies have indicated that individuals may be most infectious during the presymptomatic phase, an unusual characteristic for a respiratory infection.

Our results indicate that silent disease transmission during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages are responsible for more than 50% of the overall attack rate in COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, such silent transmission alone can sustain outbreaks even if all symptomatic cases are immediately isolated.

www.pnas.org

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of...
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
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Maybe it being new has an impact on this.

I liken it to some ISU football seasons with a 'new' approach. Comes out strong and ready for about a quarter and then eventually it's just the same old ****.
 
Ok, just pulled up the idph numbers side by side with worldometers site. It finally drove me batty enough, the difference in numbers (always assumed it was due to positives being assigned to prior days at idph and worldometers just adding them into the current day), to compare. There is a difference of 3 cases total right now, so not a large difference, but Idph shows 655 positive numbers for today and worldometers shows 379. Which means the world overstated yesterdays total by about 280 (it was a huge number they showed yesterday and caught me attention). I am more confused now.
 
Cyientist said:
Hospitalizations are dropping nationwide due to the southern states making it through their peaks. Iowa is starting to pick up again.

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/rmcc-data

While our ICU #'s and total people in the hospital isn't as high as it was during the initial May peak, our # of daily admitted patients is back to where we were during May and trending higher. The data makes me think we are better at treating and possibly a less vulnerable population is entering the hospital which shortens stays to lower the total # of people in the hospital and lowers ICU usage.

I'm worried that we are seeing positive #'s internationally and even as a nation and interpreting that as we are through the worst in IA and middle America. This comes at a time when we are increasing exposure vectors with schools opening.

We aren't close to overwhelming our hospitals, and I don't know what the number of hospital admissions is to justify more restrictions. I just don't think we are at a point yet where we are on a downhill slide in IA.
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I believe part of the recent increase in hospitalizations and ICU was due to power issues at long term care facilities due to the derecho causing them to send patients to hospitals who still had power. We don't know how much of that is the cause, though, or if it explains all of it. I know the day after the derecho there was a big spike of incoming patients listed.
 
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BCClone said:
Why do people think bumping knuckles is totally fine but handshakes arent? How many people rest their face on the back of their hands and things like that?
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'Rona Bumps all day.
giphy.gif
 
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BCClone said:
Ok, just pulled up the idph numbers side by side with worldometers site. It finally drove me batty enough, the difference in numbers (always assumed it was due to positives being assigned to prior days at idph and worldometers just adding them into the current day), to compare. There is a difference of 3 cases total right now, so not a large difference, but Idph shows 655 positive numbers for today and worldometers shows 379. Which means the world overstated yesterdays total by about 280 (it was a huge number they showed yesterday and caught me attention). I am more confused now.
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The same thing goes on for reported deaths overall. It seems the World O meters is higher than what other reports are. Not crazy higher, but higher. Sometimes it's lower for daily cases. In WI the local news will report X amount of cases, but then the WI health site will report different, as will the W-o-meters.
 
One issue with testing is the PCR test still picking up viral fragments up to 10-11 weeks AFTER a person is no-longer contagious. 88% of the infected are no longer contagious 10 days after symptoms. 95% are no longer contagious after 15 days. 99-100% no longer contagious after 20 days. PCR tests are still showing up positive up to 70+ days after a person is no longer contagious.

Data pulled from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

1598024155488.png
 
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isutrevman said:
One issue with testing is the PCR test still picking up viral fragments up to 10-11 weeks AFTER a person is no-longer contagious. 88% of the infected are no longer contagious 10 days after symptoms. 95% are no longer contagious after 15 days. 99-100% no longer contagious after 20 days. PCR tests are still showing up positive up to 70+ days after a person is no longer contagious.

Data pulled from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

View attachment 74627
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Gotta get those saliva tests rolling that give you results in like 20 min. And they are cheaper. If everyone could test themselves every morning we could go back to a much more normal pre-covid life. Granted, that would require people to actually test and hold themselves out if they test positive.
 
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Cyientist said:
Hospitalizations are dropping nationwide due to the southern states making it through their peaks. Iowa is starting to pick up again.

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/rmcc-data

While our ICU #'s and total people in the hospital isn't as high as it was during the initial May peak, our # of daily admitted patients is back to where we were during May and trending higher. The data makes me think we are better at treating and possibly a less vulnerable population is entering the hospital which shortens stays to lower the total # of people in the hospital and lowers ICU usage.

I'm worried that we are seeing positive #'s internationally and even as a nation and interpreting that as we are through the worst in IA and middle America. This comes at a time when we are increasing exposure vectors with schools opening.

We aren't close to overwhelming our hospitals, and I don't know what the number of hospital admissions is to justify more restrictions. I just don't think we are at a point yet where we are on a downhill slide in IA.
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I believe the uptick in hospitalizations in Iowa’s is limited to 4-5 counties. Unsure if they are tied to LTC facilities or another near packing plant. Either way, it’s not broad and has you mention, hospitals are no where near overrun and we likely have better treatments, all good news.

You bring up up the Midwest and the thought of a southern like wave. This will be interesting to watch. Though with the recent discussion on lesser spread of asymptomatic and with the reality of schools opening and lockdowns eased, certainly a concern for more spread, but also the virus will be up against far more healthy immune systems vs quarantine of the healthy.
 
BCClone said:
Ok, just pulled up the idph numbers side by side with worldometers site. It finally drove me batty enough, the difference in numbers (always assumed it was due to positives being assigned to prior days at idph and worldometers just adding them into the current day), to compare. There is a difference of 3 cases total right now, so not a large difference, but Idph shows 655 positive numbers for today and worldometers shows 379. Which means the world overstated yesterdays total by about 280 (it was a huge number they showed yesterday and caught me attention). I am more confused now.
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The IDPH site is a mess. It shows 56 new positives for yesterday while Worldometer and the NY Times site both show 992 new positives for yesterday. I think they keep breaking things while trying to fix things.Untitled.png
 
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cycloneG said:
Not having symptoms is not the same thing as being immune. An asymptomatic carrier can still spread the virus and can still suffer organ damage.
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this would be extremely rare. If you are asymptomatic then you arent really producing an immune response.. The organ and heart damage comes from Cytokines invading tissue and inflammation. That isnt really asymptomatic.
 
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cycloneG said:
The IDPH site is a mess. It shows 56 new positives for yesterday while Worldometer and the NY Times site both show 992 new positives for yesterday. I think they keep breaking things while trying to fix things.
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I see 420 for what would have been reported yesterday on idph for the main day. The way i understand it is that for today that they report positive tests reported yesterday 8/20 that were taken on 8/19 for the most part, but some could be from a day or two before if there was a couple day lag in it. I figured worldometers just went yesterday showed 54000 today showed 54400 so there were 400 additional positives so they use the 400 number; but they wre 280 ahead at the end of yesterday compared to idph so I'm not sure where they are getting the number.

There are some tests that are same day turn around that will hit 8/20 and could be reported the same day, so that is why they do the 14 day average most likely since the numbers will "come out in the wash".
 
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Beyerball said:
this would be extremely rare. If you are asymptomatic then you arent really producing an immune response.. The organ and heart damage comes from Cytokines invading tissue and inflammation. That isnt really asymptomatic.
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The study looked at 100 patients (median age of just 49) who recently recovered from Covid-19, most of whom were asymptomatic or had just mild symptoms. The researchers, who performed MRI scan of their hearts an average of 2 months after they first were diagnosed with Covid-19, uncovered some concerning findings: 78% of patients had ongoing heart abnormalities and 60 percent had myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle. Even more concerning was that the extent of myocarditis was not related to the severity of the initial illness or overall course of the illness.

www.forbes.com

Covid-19 Can Cause Heart Damage—Even If You Are Asymptomatic

While SARS-CoV-2 may cause cardiac symptoms such as chest pain or shortness of breath resulting in heart attacks and blood clots, there is also the possibility that the virus may cause significant heart damage and inflammation—but without producing any immediate or more noticeable cardiac symptoms.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
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madguy30 said:
This is the nasal stuff from earlier in the thread but that video seems like a really good explanation of its function as personally it's tricky to picture how this stuff works.

It would be great if it became readily available.
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This is really great positive news but CynicalBob says 'follow the money' so this will not be readily available anytime soon, at least until well after the very expensive vaccine is on the market.
 
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madguy30 said:
Well...I'll be.
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Very interesting site. I was curious if, in fact, these counters were accurate. Basically, the actual 'spinning' is simulated from an aggregate set of data updated in different frequencies. So, don't get awed by the spinning, but the method is still fundamentally sound.
 
kcbob79clone said:
This is really great positive news but CynicalBob says 'follow the money' so this will not be readily available anytime soon, at least until well after the very expensive vaccine is on the market.
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My wild prediction, and this is based off of nothing other than the O.G. SARS (which wasn't as contagious so played a part in containment) seemed to largely dissolve, is that all of these therapies, pre-emptive treatments, vaccines, etc. are available right when Covid dissolves or weakens.
 
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Cloneon said:
Very interesting site. I was curious if, in fact, these counters were accurate. Basically, the actual 'spinning' is simulated from an aggregate set of data updated in different frequencies. So, don't get awed by the spinning, but the method is still fundamentally sound.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't really care much about the method...seems to just be a pretty easy way to check on general trends even if the numbers vary.
 
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