I’d also add there has been discussion on separating and distinguishing the difference between “pre-symptomatic” versus asymptotic. Pre-symptomatic is the more likely of spread before symptoms develop. Again, a concern, like any illness of spread before the onset of symptoms. But given the high percentage of asymptotic cases and lack of symptoms/spread, is encouraging.
Positive *Informative* Covid News
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I’d also add there has been discussion on separating and distinguishing the difference between “pre-symptomatic” versus asymptotic. Pre-symptomatic is the more likely of spread before symptoms develop. Again, a concern, like any illness of spread before the onset of symptoms. But given the high percentage of asymptotic cases and lack of symptoms/spread, is encouraging.
I've been saying this since day 1. The virus always wins. Hell...it's coming back in Europe now...even New Zealand is starting to have issues again.
The problem with the author of that tweet claiming that the minimal asymptomatic spread detected in that particular study makes masks and distancing meaningless, is that the study came from a district in China where extremely strict lock down and masks mandates were in place. The conclusion should be with extreme lock downs and mask mandates in place, asymptomatic spread was minimal.
It's not coming back in most of Europe. They are finding cases due to massive amounts of testing, but it's not coming back. Countries like Ireland, Belgium, Sweden, the Uk, Italy, Spain have seen an increase in "positive cases" for the last month to two months. Meanwhile deaths have continued to go down, or flat lined at extremely low levels in those countries. The data point to the epidemic being over in most of Europe. That doesn't mean the virus is eliminated, it just means they wont see death rates anywhere near the level they did before.
But, you are correct, this virus can't be stopped forever. New Zealand managed for a while, with a relatively small, extremely isolated population, but it's back now.
kcbob79clone
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CDC Update that deaths could go down next week:
www.cnbc.com
CDC chief Dr. Redfield says coronavirus deaths could start to fall next week
Director of the CDC Dr. Robert Redfield said that daily new cases still remain high and he'd like to bring that number down below 10,000 new cases per day.
www.cnbc.com
WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!! We cannot have positive news. People are DYING!
Interesting prediction from a former Nobel Prize winner.
Good info on the pre-symptomatic vs asymptotic spread
Again that shows very low transmission from those who are not sick (~4%. As people figured out 50+ years ago, quarantines are for Sick people.
I came here to post some good news on long-term immunity I swear. Now I'm having trouble finding it again... Ahh there it is.
Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.
Indeed, about twice as many healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic generated memory T cell responses in the absence of detectable circulating antibody responses, implying that seroprevalence as an indicator may underestimate the extent of population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.
Indeed, about twice as many healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic generated memory T cell responses in the absence of detectable circulating antibody responses, implying that seroprevalence as an indicator may underestimate the extent of population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
Why do people think bumping knuckles is totally fine but handshakes arent? How many people rest their face on the back of their hands and things like that?
CDC Update that deaths could go down next week:
CDC chief Dr. Redfield says coronavirus deaths could start to fall next week
Director of the CDC Dr. Robert Redfield said that daily new cases still remain high and he'd like to bring that number down below 10,000 new cases per day.
That is good news that the south is turning a corner. The article did say that middle America is the likely next problem area though.
So if this is true, that means the transmission levels we've been seeing have been the result of people having symptoms and ignoring them to go out in public anyways. So if we can't trust people to self quarantine, doesn't that mean we have to quarantine everyone to protect the population? Basically, we're all suffering because we have a lot of selfish people.
The pre-symptomatic people can spread it but haven't started showing signs yet, or maybe they don't know they are sick due to a very light fever or just a little sign. I have been battling allergies this summer (lack of rain doesn't knock down pollen that gives me trouble) if that is similar to my symptoms that could keep me from knowing. There are selfish people, but it's not all spread due to selfishness.
Also worth noting that hospitalization rate(IMO, one of the most important stats vs cases/positive rates) with those with Covid Like Illness is around 1.8 nationally, lowest in quite sometime.
Correct, they may not know yet. But I think that is good news on the asymptomatic front is that they never will know (no symptoms) and less likely to mass spread. Which by the way has shaped much of the public policy on this. But either way, quarantining the healthy is not helping, as those healthy immune systems help fight back against the spread of the most vulnerable
Maybe. But we don’t do that for any other virus (with healthy people and no symptoms). I would argue the constant drip of reported cases (many are asymptomatic) has to be hitting a wall of some consequence. Especially now that we have some test studies showing a more minimal spread versus being super spreaders.
Empirical studies have indicated that individuals may be most infectious during the presymptomatic phase, an unusual characteristic for a respiratory infection.
Our results indicate that silent disease transmission during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages are responsible for more than 50% of the overall attack rate in COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, such silent transmission alone can sustain outbreaks even if all symptomatic cases are immediately isolated.
www.pnas.org
Our results indicate that silent disease transmission during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages are responsible for more than 50% of the overall attack rate in COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, such silent transmission alone can sustain outbreaks even if all symptomatic cases are immediately isolated.
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks
Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of...
www.pnas.org
Hospitalizations are dropping nationwide due to the southern states making it through their peaks. Iowa is starting to pick up again.
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/rmcc-data
While our ICU #'s and total people in the hospital isn't as high as it was during the initial May peak, our # of daily admitted patients is back to where we were during May and trending higher. The data makes me think we are better at treating and possibly a less vulnerable population is entering the hospital which shortens stays to lower the total # of people in the hospital and lowers ICU usage.
I'm worried that we are seeing positive #'s internationally and even as a nation and interpreting that as we are through the worst in IA and middle America. This comes at a time when we are increasing exposure vectors with schools opening.
We aren't close to overwhelming our hospitals, and I don't know what the number of hospital admissions is to justify more restrictions. I just don't think we are at a point yet where we are on a downhill slide in IA.
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/rmcc-data
While our ICU #'s and total people in the hospital isn't as high as it was during the initial May peak, our # of daily admitted patients is back to where we were during May and trending higher. The data makes me think we are better at treating and possibly a less vulnerable population is entering the hospital which shortens stays to lower the total # of people in the hospital and lowers ICU usage.
I'm worried that we are seeing positive #'s internationally and even as a nation and interpreting that as we are through the worst in IA and middle America. This comes at a time when we are increasing exposure vectors with schools opening.
We aren't close to overwhelming our hospitals, and I don't know what the number of hospital admissions is to justify more restrictions. I just don't think we are at a point yet where we are on a downhill slide in IA.
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