Positive *Informative* Covid News

[cycloneG]

Here is an explanation I've already shared. You can disagree with it, but the Euromomo data back it up. Keep in mind, he's specifically talking about Europe in the video. In my opinion it doesn't matter if they are going up. Illness and deaths are way down, and staying down. If they are picking up positive cases due to huge increased in testing, but no one is getting sick and dying, then we shouldn't care about those positive cases.

Didn't we already see this in the US? Cases, illness and deaths went down. Restrictions were lifted. Cases went up followed by deaths going up a month later. Cases started increasing in Europe a few weeks ago. If deaths don't start going up, it's probably an indication something is different. Right now, it's probably too soon to say since not enough time has passed since cases started increasing.

 

[BCClone]

Didn't we already see this in the US? Cases, illness and deaths went down. Restrictions were lifted. Cases went up followed by deaths going up a month later. Cases started increasing in Europe a few weeks ago. If deaths don't start going up, it's probably and indication something is different. Right now, it's probably too soon to say since not enough time has passed since cases started increasing.

I would also say, isn't this basically what flattening the curve was supposed to do, it wasn't going to necessarily hold case numbers in total down, it was just supposed to slow the spread and allow medical personnel the ability to keep up with it until we have a vaccine or other ways to combat it better.

 

[isutrevman]

Didn't we already see this in the US? Cases, illness and deaths went down. Restrictions were lifted. Cases went up followed by deaths going up a month later. Cases started increasing in Europe a few weeks ago. If deaths don't start going up, it's probably and indication something is different. Right now, it's probably too soon to say since not enough time has passed since cases started increasing.

No, we saw deaths finally start to go up in southern states following the Hope-Simpson tropical seasonality influenza curve. Some state lock downs likely did reduce cases and deaths for a time period, and saw increased when they inevitably had to reopen. Many state lock downs happened too late to be effective (NY, NJ, etc...) and deaths did not increase as restrictions were lifted. Take a look at the death graphs on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. Almost all the northern states' curves follow the same shape, over the same time period. Same thing with southern states mirroring each other.

I agree, we don't know FOR SURE yet, but we're well over a month in most of the European countries. Nevermind Sweden, who hasn't really changed anything for 5 months.

 

[cycloneG]

No, we saw deaths finally start to go up in southern states following the Hope-Simpson tropical seasonality influenza curve. Some state lock downs likely did reduce cases and deaths for a time period, and saw increased when they inevitably had to reopen. Many state lock downs happened too late to be effective (NY, NJ, etc...) and deaths did not increase as restrictions were lifted.

I agree, we don't know FOR SURE yet, but we're well over a month in most of the European countries. Nevermind Sweden, who hasn't really changed anything for 5 months.

Deaths increased after restrictions were lifted. That's been known for some time.

 

[isutrevman]

Deaths increased after restrictions were lifted. That's been known for some time.

Not in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, etc... states that already got to 15% or more infection rate. Those states do no still have the same level of restriction they had back in March and April, and haven't for a while.

California never lifted restrictions, and their death curve pretty much matches most of the other southern states.

Anyway, that's enough back and forth for me for now. I do appreciate the civil discussion! But I need to get back to work (watching golf).

 

[larrysarmy]

Didn't we already see this in the US? Cases, illness and deaths went down. Restrictions were lifted. Cases went up followed by deaths going up a month later. Cases started increasing in Europe a few weeks ago. If deaths don't start going up, it's probably an indication something is different. Right now, it's probably too soon to say since not enough time has passed since cases started increasing.

I think it’s apparent lockdowns/restrictions don’t stop the virus, when things open up, virus do what virus do.

 

[cycloneG]

I think it’s apparent lockdowns/restrictions don’t stop the virus, when things open up, virus do what virus do.

Sure if people don't follow proper mitigation protocols.

 

[larrysarmy]

Interesting twitter thread

 

[larrysarmy]

Sure if people don't follow proper mitigation protocols.

New Zealand, Hawaii, California...for example had some of the strongest restrictions and mask mandates, still saw or seeing increase in cases. All for common sense stuff to help mitigate, (not anti mask) but it’s clear Mother Nature is going to win no matter what we do.

 

[cycloneG]

New Zealand, Hawaii, California...for example had some of the strongest restrictions and mask mandates, still saw or seeing increase in cases. All for common sense stuff to help mitigate, (not anti mask) but it’s clear Mother Nature is going to win no matter what we do.

That's a very defeatist attitude. The spread of the virus isn't being controlled by some third party. We're spreading.

 

[isutrevman]

New Zealand, Hawaii, California...for example had some of the strongest restrictions and mask mandates, still saw or seeing increase in cases. All for common sense stuff to help mitigate, (not anti mask) but it’s clear Mother Nature is going to win no matter what we do.

Peru, Israel....

 

[mywayorcyway]

Anyway, that's enough back and forth for me for now. I do appreciate the civil discussion! But I need to get back to work (watching golf).

Thank you for the golf reminder. And for ruining the work plans I had for the day.

 

[larrysarmy]

That's a very defeatist attitude. The spread of the virus isn't being controlled by some third party. We're spreading.

It’s not defeatist, it’s being a realist.

All I’m saying is there are places with strict restrictions and mask mandates and community spread is still evident...our thought process thinking we can stop it is flawed. Thinking our ways to slow it’s spread is hopeful and somewhat effective, but still to what end? The virus will continue to spread until saturated/herd immunity is reached.

 

[Acylum]

That's a very defeatist attitude. The spread of the virus isn't being controlled by some third party. We're spreading.

I will say this much; I’m fairly astounded that every day in Iowa we’re still seeing ~400 positives/day. I mean c’mon people, this isn’t rocket science anymore after 5 months. It is not difficult to prevent yourself from being infected even in spite of what others around you are/aren’t doing.

 

[cycloneG]

It’s not defeatist, it’s being a realist.

All I’m saying is there are places with strict restrictions and mask mandates and community spread is still evident...our thought process thinking we can stop it is flawed. Thinking our ways to slow it’s spread is hopeful and somewhat effective, but still to what end? The virus will continue to spread until saturated/herd immunity is reached.

Mitigation protects at risk groups. The fewer people that are spreading the virus; the less chance for spill over into at risk groups.

 

[larrysarmy]

Mitigation protects at risk groups. The fewer people that are spreading the virus; the less chance for spill over into at risk groups.

All for helping in that.

 

[larrysarmy]

Interesting findings/discussion along the asymptotic front

 

[cycloneG]

Interesting findings/discussion along the asymptotic front

These studies are fairly consistent that asymptomatic transmission is occurring.

 

[larrysarmy]

These studies are fairly consistent that asymptomatic transmission is occurring.

Agree completely. But perhaps not at the extreme levels which seems to be shaping our public policy towards the virus.

 

[cycloneG]

Agree completely. But perhaps not at the extreme levels which seems to be shaping our public policy towards the virus.

The study is using contact tracing data collected in January and February. We've changed our habits since then. The WHO came out this week and stated the major driver of the spread currently is people who don't know they are infected because they don't have symptoms. We've done a good job of cutting down on the spread from symptomatic carriers.