Turn kicking woes into competitive advantage

[psychlone99]

Am I the only one who thinks the recent kicking woes might be a great opportunity to create a competitive advantage? Every decision is situational, of course, but I think we would be pretty dangerous if the coaches used the general philosophy that we're going for it on any 4th down between the opponent's 25 and 35. From the opponent's perspective, I would hate to have to defend this offense for four downs in that field position.

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

We need to be able to kick. I say keep going until someone breaks the cycle. Narveson went right and then left so I know he can dial it in.

 

[Cyforce]

We need to be able to kick. I say keep going until someone breaks the cycle. Narveson went right and then left so I know he can dial it in.

Toe too pointy?

 

[psychlone99]

Essentially what I'm suggesting is proactively adopting this as a general philosophy, not a strict rule. But it would inform game planning throughout the week and playcalling from the opening kick, rather than the decision point coming when you stall out between the 25 and 35.

I agree- we need to be able to kick. But right now we're not making them consistently enough to keep trotting someone out there in that field position.

 

[CyCrazy]

We should never kick again, this has been a **** show for decades.

 

[Goothrey]

There should certainly be no punting inside the opponents 40. I may even be in favor of extending that to the 50.

 

[CTTB78]

There should certainly be no punting inside the opponents 40.....

Agree, with our defense we shouldn't punt inside the 40 unless we are protecting a slim lead late in the game.

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

I get it and when I’m watching the game I’m usually yelling go for it. I just think it’s gonna bite us in the ass at the end of the year. Only way to get better is attempting kicks in games. Just my 2 cents.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Am I the only one who thinks the recent kicking woes might be a great opportunity to create a competitive advantage? Every decision is situational, of course, but I think we would be pretty dangerous if the coaches used the general philosophy that we're going for it on any 4th down between the opponent's 25 and 35. From the opponent's perspective, I would hate to have to defend this offense for four downs in that field position.

In general i think a lot of teams could benefit from this, from even further out than the 35 probably, could even go out to the 50.

The net swing from A) the additional chance of scoring, and B) even if you don't score, the incremental decrease in score if you push the ball forward another set of downs or two if you complete the 4th down is worth it.

The biggest benefit is that you can treat the preceding downs differently when its not a question of 'going for it' and is instead just part of your offensive plan. 3rd and 10? You don't have to go for the sticks, instead you can opt to take the safe 5-6 yard play if it is open. And because of that, then on 1st and 2nd down you can, for instance, opt to take more high risk\reward plays due to not being as worried about being stuck in third and long. It really just opens things up a lot more.

 

[psychlone99]

"The biggest benefit is that you can treat the preceding downs differently when its not a question of 'going for it' and is instead just part of your offensive plan.. It really just opens things up a lot more."

EXACTLY. And imagine this offense with more downs at it's disposal, and more options on first through third downs.

 

[tolfbfan]

I'll be really radical and say we should go for it on fifth down.

 

[LarryISU]

I recall the announcers during the Texas Tech game saying we were 1 for 6 on 4th down coming into the game. So, maybe this is not our strength just yet?

 

[besserheimerphat]

From a game theory standpoint - and there is CFB and NFL data/analyses out there that backs this up - coaches punt way too often. Even from their own side of the 50 teams should be going for it much more than they do.

 

[burn587]

I recall the announcers during the Texas Tech game saying we were 1 for 6 on 4th down coming into the game. So, maybe this is not our strength just yet?

Manning has made some really head scratching play calls on 4th down this year which hasn’t helped.

 

[LutherBlue]

From a game theory standpoint - and there is CFB and NFL data/analyses out there that backs this up - coaches punt way too often. Even from their own side of the 50 teams should be going for it much more than they do.

not game theory, it's simple probability analysis.

 

[besserheimerphat]

not game theory, it's simple probability analysis.

Game theory generally is probability analysis... I guess you could say the difference is whether or not you take your opponent's strategy into account.

 

[OWLCITYCYFAN]

I think we would be pretty dangerous if the coaches used the general philosophy that we're going for it on any 4th down between the opponent's 25 and 35. From the opponent's perspective, I would hate to have to defend this offense for four downs in that field position.

There's a HS football coach in Arkansas who rarely punts and is a consistent winner - got a ton of press three or four years ago. I don't know why he's never had the opportunity to test his theories at the collegiate level - could be the rare bird who doesn't want to move...

Statistics drove his thinking - don't punt from deep in your own territory because:
Team getting the ball at your forty will score 75% of the time;
Team getting the ball at your ten will score 95% of the time;
Therefore, you might as well "go" all the time,,,

 

[EvilBetty]

Didnt Baylor essentially beat isu because their kicking game sucked? Could be wrong but didnt they convert (2) 4th downs within fg range to eventually score td's turning what would have been 6 pts into 14.

Could be wrong

 

[VeloClone]

I'll be really radical and say we should go for it on fifth down.

Wait a minute. I thought you came from Ohio, not Colorado.

 

[VeloClone]

There's a HS football coach in Arkansas who rarely punts and is a consistent winner - got a ton of press three or four years ago. I don't know why he's never had the opportunity to test his theories at the collegiate level - could be the rare bird who doesn't want to move...

Statistics drove his thinking - don't punt from deep in your own territory because:
Team getting the ball at your forty will score 75% of the time;
Team getting the ball at your ten will score 95% of the time;
Therefore, you might as well "go" all the time,,,

But how often is that score a TD at the 40 vs. at the 10? Also, the quality of your defense and the quality of the other team's offense comes into play - and the amount of time remaining and the score.