2018-2019 computer projections thread

[every_yard]

After yesterday, 17 in Kenpom & Barttorvik, 16 in Sagarin, and 15 in BPI. I’m guessing we’ll drop to around 21 in the NET (from 16) when that gets updated later today.

Concerning week, but our season analytics are good through 16 games. Let’s go steal one Wednesday.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This is not trending in the right direction all the sudden.

Improbably winning one in Lubbock would sure help, though.

 

[cyclones500]

NET, thru Jan. 12

Iowa State: 28 (previous: 16)

NET rankings for ISU opponents, with result:
12 Kansas W
29 Iowa L
49 Kansas State L
51 Arizona L
58 Oklahoma State W
70 Missouri W
83 Baylor L
125 Illinois W
134 Drake W
178 San Diego State W
182 Omaha W
199 Texas Southern W
206 North Dakota State W
292 Eastern Illinois W
331 Alabama State W
350 Southern W

Home: 8-1
Road: 1-2
Neutral: 3-1

vs. 1-25: 1-0
vs. 26-50: 0-2
vs. 51-100: 2-2
vs. 101-200: 5-0
vs. 201 and below: 4-0

 

[cyclones500]

This is not trending in the right direction all the sudden.

Improbably winning one in Lubbock would sure help, though.

View attachment 61586

As much as I was in full Negative Nancy mode yesterday after the KSU loss, these updates demonstrate how game-to-game fluctuation is relatively small, now that we've reached the season's midway point.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Wow, very surprised to see we are still that high on multiple models. I think the Pac-12 being so bad has something to do with it, 8-10 Big 12/Big 10 teams will easily get a bid over them this year.

 

[cyclones500]

Wow, very surprised to see we are still that high on multiple models. I think the Pac-12 being so bad has something to do with it, 8-10 Big 12/Big 10 teams will easily get a bid over them this year.

True. Pac-12's marginal status may clear some space that isn't typically available. Most likely that'll benefit teams from other P5 leagues the most.

"P6/7" leagues don't appear to have as many strong contenders, either, relative to recent years — American and Big East, primarily.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Wow, very surprised to see we are still that high on multiple models. I think the Pac-12 being so bad has something to do with it, 8-10 Big 12/Big 10 teams will easily get a bid over them this year.

K State was not a bad loss at all. It hurt like hell due to it being at home, and due to the fact that they've been vulnerable with Wade out.

 

[cyclones500]

K State was not a bad loss at all. It hurt like hell due to it being at home, and due to the fact that they've been vulnerable with Wade out.

It was more like a missed opportunity for a solid home win, vs. "bad loss." Yeah, it looked bad, but that's more about whether the team looks like it's tournament-quality, but doesn't affect body-of-work in a major way to this point.

 

[Halincandenza]

K State was not a bad loss at all. It hurt like hell due to it being at home, and due to the fact that they've been vulnerable with Wade out.

At home with how KState has been playing that is a relatively bad loss. Might not be like losing to OSU at home but still not good.

 

[Sigmapolis]

K State was not a bad loss at all. It hurt like hell due to it being at home, and due to the fact that they've been vulnerable with Wade out.

It was more like a missed opportunity for a solid home win, vs. "bad loss." Yeah, it looked bad, but that's more about whether the team looks like it's tournament-quality, but doesn't affect body-of-work in a major way to this point.

It sucks that we are closing out on Arizona, Baylor, and Kansas State -- games where we were "in control" at one point, with something like a 75%+ or more win expectation according to the relevant ESPN model in each game -- from being 15-1 right now.

One basket and one stop at the end of any of those games and we likely win them.

If we were 15-1 right now, we would be a Top Five team. I consider the Iowa game a lost cause considering how well they shot that night and how much their rattled us. Iowa is actually proving to be a salty squad, too, with their wins against some pretty good Big Ten teams like Nebraska and Ohio State, as much as we like to hate on them.

How fun would being 15-1 (4-0) be right now? Alas, not to be. The computers would probably still have us in the 10 or teens range, but eh, still fun!

This season is not "lost" -- we probably still make the tournament and can still trend in the right direction. Two super frustrating games in a row is really hard, though, especially when they were some of our more winnable games in the Big 12 and winning them was necessary for our highest ambitions this season, which seem to be goners now.

 

[BryceC]

True. Pac-12's marginal status may clear some space that isn't typically available. Most likely that'll benefit teams from other P5 leagues the most.

"P6/7" leagues don't appear to have as many strong contenders, either, relative to recent years — American and Big East, primarily.

Yeah, the American and Big East appear to be way, way down. Pac-12 is down, but it's more really down as opposed to it's normal down.

K State was not a bad loss at all. It hurt like hell due to it being at home, and due to the fact that they've been vulnerable with Wade out.

We'll agree to disagree. It was a bad loss because it was a joke of a game in every phase, it was demoralizing for the fanbase, and it really puts us behind the 8 ball with a very tough 3 game stretch coming up. I'd bet it's one of the worst home losses for an actual good team we've had in the Fred/Prohm era.

 

[Jacktronic]

TBF, beat Arizona and you no longer get Illinois/SDSU.

 

[BryceC]

This season is not "lost" -- we probably still make the tournament and can still trend in the right direction. Two super frustrating games in a row is really hard, though, especially when they were some of our more winnable games in the Big 12 and winning them was necessary for our highest ambitions this season, which seem to be goners now.

Winning the Big 12 is probably out. It will also be extremely difficult to get a 4 seed now, which really should be the goal for this team. Let's be honest, there is a much better chance of Iowa making it in DSM than us now. While that shouldn't matter a ton, it will absolutely matter mentally to some fans.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Winning the Big 12 is probably out. It will also be extremely difficult to get a 4 seed now, which really should be the goal for this team. Let's be honest, there is a much better chance of Iowa making it in DSM than us now. While that shouldn't matter a ton, it will absolutely matter mentally to some fans.

My baseline for "adequate" this season was making the NCAA tournament.

Things like...

-- beating Iowa
-- winning the Big 12 (regular or tournament)
-- high seed in the NCAA tournament, make it to the second weekend, etc.
-- home game in Des Moines

...are all nice bonuses, but I am not (yet) worried about my baseline above.

I guess some people live in Iowa and want easy logistics to the first weekend of games. We are more likely to go west than to go east but, heck, I would be happier with Hartford, Columbus, Columbia, or Jacksonville -- easier to get to from here, methinks.

 

[FinalFourCy]

It sucks that we are closing out on Arizona, Baylor, and Kansas State -- games where we were "in control" at one point, with something like a 75%+ or more win expectation according to the relevant ESPN model in each game -- from being 15-1 right now.

One basket and one stop at the end of any of those games and we likely win them.

If we were 15-1 right now, we would be a Top Five team.

I hear you, but the number of otherwise “Top” teams hiding behind a mult-game What-If Wall is rather large, probably most of the top-60, including some teams that will miss the NCAA tournament.

The difference between “good” and “not so good” seasons is often how you do in close games. As we all know, Hoiberg’s first year had 16 losses, 10 of them in OT or by 6 points or less. That staff learned some things, but mostly they just got better players imo.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I hear you, but the number of otherwise “Top” teams hiding behind a mult-game What-If Wall is rather large, probably most of the top-60, including some teams that will miss the NCAA tournament.

The difference between “good” and “not so good” seasons is often how you do in close games. As we all know, Hoiberg’s first year had 16 losses, 10 of them in OT or by 6 points or less.

That was my last season in Ames. That team was so much fun, even if it never won much. It just needed one more body to chew up minutes efficiently.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys...



That is pretty close to the "check mark" for making the NCAA tournament.

 

[ZB4CY]

Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys...

View attachment 61689

That is pretty close to the "check mark" for making the NCAA tournament.

We have to have 2 of the best wins in the country outside maybe Kansas.

 

[every_yard]

Jumped from 24 to 16 in the NET rankings after last nights win. Every single computer ranking system I’ve seen (NET, Kenpom, Sagarin, Barttorvik, BPI) has us between 13 and 17.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Great resume. Just have to continue to improve and keep the momentum going. I think those two wins are worth two seed lines for us.