Big 12 Title Game Chances

[cyIclSoneU]

Even after today's loss, Iowa State still controls its own destiny* to make it to Dallas for the Big 12 championship game.

It's crazy that this is the case with just three games to go - and only one of those three against a top-tier team (which will be played in Ames!).

If Iowa State wins out and finishes with a 7-2 conference record, it would have tiebreakers over Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State with head-to-head wins and would also have the next tiebreaker of a win over the #1 team if either OU or TCU finishes 8-1.

Next Saturday is going to be a huge game in Ames. This team still has more to play for in November than any Iowa State team in recent memory. Today was a bump in the road, but these guys have three Saturdays to give Iowa State a chance that it hasn't had in 105 years to win a conference title.

*Not exactly, but close enough. The scenarios where ISU finishes 7-2 in the Big 12 and doesn't make the CCG are very unlikely. But if you're worried, just root for Texas and West Virginia to lose one more game each and that should basically take care of it.

 

[FredCyclone]

Time to take a reality check!

 

[madguy30]

I think they lose by 2 TDs next week and the hope is to get one more win after that.

Depth is going to start becoming an issue on an already bad Oline.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Yeah, losing to WV didn't hurt real badly in that regard. OSU is a must win if you want to be in the title game (along with the last two).

 

[FerShizzle]

Did TCU and Oklahoma lose already? Until then, those 2 teams control their own destiny and ISU needs one of them to lose while also winning out. Also may need Texas to lose 1 more

 

[chuckd4735]

Did TCU and Oklahoma lose already? Until then, those 2 teams control their own destiny and ISU needs one of them to lose while also winning out. Also may need Texas to lose 1 more

TCU plays at OU next week, so one of them will have to lose.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Did TCU and Oklahoma lose already? Until then, those 2 teams control their own destiny and ISU needs one of them to lose while also winning out. Also may need Texas to lose 1 more

TCU and Oklahoma still play each other next week.

 

[jsb]

Time to take a reality check!

Actually that is reality. Is it likely? Who knows? But we still have a very good shot.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Did TCU and Oklahoma lose already? Until then, those 2 teams control their own destiny and ISU needs one of them to lose while also winning out. Also may need Texas to lose 1 more

If we win out, we will be in the title game.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If we win out, we will be in the title game.

Which, by the way, is all the thread is saying. We'll be underdogs next week for sure. It's not likely that we finish 3-0. But if we do, we're gonna be in Dallas, probably playing an Oklahoma or TCU team that we already beat.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Which, by the way, is all the thread is saying. We'll be underdogs next week for sure. It's not likely that we finish 3-0. But if we do, we're gonna be in Dallas, probably playing an Oklahoma or TCU team that we already beat.

It may not be likely, but it’s not particularly unlikely either.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Did TCU and Oklahoma lose already? Until then, those 2 teams control their own destiny and ISU needs one of them to lose while also winning out. Also may need Texas to lose 1 more

SIAP. Not yet and a tie would be unlikely.

 

[Clone9]

I am so glad we came back and made a game out of it. If we would have been blown out it would have been a huge hit to morale and would have been tough to win next week. Now we should be pissed and play with a chip on our shoulder.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

It may not be likely, but it’s not particularly unlikely either.

ESPN's FPI gives Iowa State a 15% chance of going 3-0 down the stretch from here. So, I agree; it's unlikely but it isn't a Hail Mary longshot.

 

[clonedude]

If Texas or WV win out, they could knock us out, correct?

 

[chuckd4735]

If Texas or WV win out, they could knock us out, correct?

Yes. Texas goes to WV and WV still goes to Norman.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If Texas or WV win out, they could knock us out, correct?

Yes, but there's more to it than that. We are well-positioned for a multi-team tie at 7-2 because of the tiebreakers mentioned earlier. If only us and Texas, or only us and WVU, tie for 2nd at 7-2, that's a problem. For our purposes hopefully TCU deals Texas its third Big 12 loss tonight anyway.

 

[Omaha Cy]

Yes. Texas goes to WV and WV still goes to Norman.

WVU plays at OU in the finale, and unless things work out pefectly for OU, they will still need to win that game. WVU has more losses coming.

Texas aint winning vs TCU tonight so they wont be a factor in the race for the CCG.

Its not crazy to think UT could beat WVU in a few weeks.

 

[Spanky]

Dang, win today and we're tied with OU for first with the tie breaker. That hurts.

 

[KennyPratt42]

We win next week and we are in the driver's seat to make the Championship Game. Lose and we are all but eliminated from contention.