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Will we make the ncaa tournament (PIG doesn't count)

Will we make the ncaa tournament (PIG doesn't count)

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It seems that there are a lot of people in this thread that haven't actually looked at what kind of resume has gotten teams into the NCAA tournament recently.

Heck, there have been teams that haven't even had a win against another NCAA tourney team that have gotten into the field as an at-large. There have been teams with multiple losses to 200+ RPI teams. Oregon State got in as a 7 seed last year...look at their resume. Not pretty.

It's all relative, but our resume as a middle of the pack B12 team looks pretty good, and we still have more chances than most to put good and great wins on the resume.
 
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If ISU can pull of the upset against WVU they will be 6-3 in the first half of the Big 12. That is a really good record in the big 12. People have unrealistic expectations. This was never going to be a team that was going to be a 4 or 5 seed in the tournament.
 
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CyTwins said:
We have one less game than pretty much every other team now
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Not sure the relevance based on my post. I'm simply looking at facts for last year's bracket. If we go 5-5 the rest of the way and finish 18-12, we would be in tough shape based on last year's tournament selections, especially if we have no wins against anyone in the Top 25 RPI. Winning a couple games in the conference tournament would help though.
 
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isu81 said:
Not sure the relevance based on my post. I'm simply looking at facts for last year's bracket. If we go 5-5 the rest of the way and finish 18-12, we would be in tough shape based on last year's tournament selections, especially if we have no wins against anyone in the Top 25 RPI. Winning a couple games in the conference tournament would help though.
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Win total doesn't mean much this year for us when comparing to teams that played one more cupcake than us is what I'm saying
 
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CyTwins said:
Win total doesn't mean much this year for us when comparing to teams that played one more cupcake than us is what I'm saying
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I could go through the math again, but only two teams with 12 regular season losses made it. Vandy and Syracuse. So the point is still the same. At 18-12 and no RPI top 25 wins, we would be sweating it big-time, especially if we don't win a game or two in the conference tournament.
 
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isu81 said:
I could go through the math again, but only two teams with 12 regular season losses made it. Vandy and Syracuse. So the point is still the same. At 18-12 and no RPI top 25 wins, we would be sweating it big-time, especially if we don't win a game or two in the conference tournament.
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We had 11 losses last year and got a 4 seed. Computer's will love us by the end of the year because we're still good
 
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isu81 said:
I could go through the math again, but only two teams with 12 regular season losses made it. Vandy and Syracuse. So the point is still the same. At 18-12 and no RPI top 25 wins, we would be sweating it big-time, especially if we don't win a game or two in the conference tournament.
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You have to look at it individually in terms of this year not historically. if you win 5 more games in conference and you will have plenty of top 50 wins and over 500 in the top RPI conference in the country. They would probably be a top 35 RPI team.
 
CyTwins said:
We had 11 losses last year and got a 4 seed. Computer's will love us by the end of the year because we're still good
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Last year's team had 6 regular season wins better than this year's best win. They also had only 10 regular season losses. Of course, the computers loved us last year.

Go 18-12, then lose 1 in the tournament and 13 losses is a number that almost never gets teams in the tournament. Especially teams whose best win was against a team in the 30's for RPI.
 
Right now ISU is mid 40's RPI, 20th on Sagarin, 27th on Ken Pom and has a winning conference record. Their RPI will only go up.
 
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No major conference team with a winning conference record and a top 49 RPI has been left out of the tournament that I could find. The highest major conference teams to get left out are Clemson and FSU (both 2007) and Missouri(2014) they all had RPIs in the 40s but Clemson and FSU were two games under .500 in ACC. Missouri was .500 in an ok league.
 
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rholtgraves said:
Right now ISU is mid 40's RPI, 20th on Sagarin, 27th on Ken Pom and has a winning conference record. Their RPI will only go up.
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Not if we finish 5-5 or worse.

The following site predicts RPI. Right now, it has us as underdogs (less than 40% chance to win) against West Virginia twice and Kansas. Strong favorites to win (greater than 60%) against OK State, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma.

It has us pretty even/slight favorites against Baylor, Kansas State and Tech. If the wins/losses expected followed to form outside of these three games, our projected RPI would be:
  • Sweep all 3 and finish 7-3. RPI is 28.
  • Lose all 3 and finish 4-6. RPI is 59.
  • Win one of the above and finish 5-5. RPI is mid 40's depending on which one it is.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa St..html
 
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rholtgraves said:
No major conference team with a winning conference record and a top 49 RPI has been left out of the tournament that I could find. The highest major conference teams to get left out are Clemson and FSU (both 2007) and Missouri(2014) they all had RPIs in the 40s but Clemson and FSU were two games under .500 in ACC. Missouri was .500 in an ok league.
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Learn it. Understand it. Live it.
 
isu81 said:
Not if we finish 5-5 or worse.

The following site predicts RPI. Right now, it has us as underdogs (less than 40% chance to win) against West Virginia twice and Kansas. Strong favorites to win (greater than 60%) against OK State, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma.

It has us pretty even/slight favorites against Baylor, Kansas State and Tech. If the wins/losses expected followed to form outside of these three games, our projected RPI would be:
  • Sweep all 3 and finish 7-3. RPI is 28.
  • Lose all 3 and finish 4-6. RPI is 59.
  • Win one of the above and finish 5-5. RPI is mid 40's depending on which one it is.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa St..html
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So 5 and 5 and they get it. Got it.
 
isu81 said:
Not if we finish 5-5 or worse.

The following site predicts RPI. Right now, it has us as underdogs (less than 40% chance to win) against West Virginia twice and Kansas. Strong favorites to win (greater than 60%) against OK State, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma.

It has us pretty even/slight favorites against Baylor, Kansas State and Tech. If the wins/losses expected followed to form outside of these three games, our projected RPI would be:
  • Sweep all 3 and finish 7-3. RPI is 28.
  • Lose all 3 and finish 4-6. RPI is 59.
  • Win one of the above and finish 5-5. RPI is mid 40's depending on which one it is.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa St..html
Click to expand...

So if we go 5-5 we're in for sure? Perfect
 
The only ones that look silly in this thread are the ones that definitively say we're in, or definitively say we're out.

Anybody who's followed this team this year, can see a scenerio where they just beat the teams their favored against, and finish 4-6, 17-13 overall, then lose first round conf tournament, to finish 17-14. That is likely not gonna be good enough.

We could also see them going 6-4, or better, with a win in the conf tournament, to finish 20-12. Which would easily get them in the NCAA tournament.
 
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WastedTalent said:
The only ones that look silly in this thread are the ones that definitively say we're in, or definitively say we're out.

Anybody who's followed this team this year, can see a scenerio where they just beat the teams their favored against, and finish 4-6, 17-13 overall, then lose first round conf tournament, to finish 17-14. That is likely not gonna be good enough.

We could also see them going 6-4, or better, with a win in the conf tournament, to finish 20-12. Which would easily get them in the NCAA tournament.
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Yeah, I think it's fine to worry the team will miss the tournament based on how they've looked and the fact there isn't much room for error in a 30 game schedule, but I don't think it's accurate to say we presently don't have a NCAA tourney resume.
 
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