The Vandy loss does not help, but our conference is tough, and I honestly believe the getting past the 20 win barrier puts us in with 2 bad loses (Vandy and Iowa)..... I guess one optimistic items is both were road games...
Will we make the ncaa tournament (PIG doesn't count)
- Thread starter Gunnerclone
- Start date
Nope it would be a huge win and going 3-7 after that would be pretty unlikely. Would be by far our best win and would give us cushion for a possible slip up in Austin. Win tomorrow, and we are on the right track. Really, this team just needs to take care of business at home and we are in great shape. WVU and Baylor in Hilton have me very nervous though.
That's why having two wins in the road, one of which is top 50 is so crucial but no one seems to understand that. We could lose to WVU &a Baylor and get a couple more wins on the road against what people here think are the "bad teams" and be fine. The path isn't nearly as narrow as people want to make it for whatever their purpose is.
People need to get over their preconceived 1980's notions of what a tournament team is in 2017.
Kind of funny...if season ended today, we'd be a 7 seed (Lunardi).
That would be the tied for 8th best season in school history.
We've made 8 NCAA tourneys with a worse seed than 7.
Other than the two LE 2-seed seasons, our last 3 seasons have been our highest ncaa seeds ever.
That would be the tied for 8th best season in school history.
We've made 8 NCAA tourneys with a worse seed than 7.
Other than the two LE 2-seed seasons, our last 3 seasons have been our highest ncaa seeds ever.
Vandy is not a bad loss. They are currently 54 in RPI.
My post from the Vandy post game thread.
At 13 wins, going off of liverpi:
16 and lower is NIT or nothing
17 wins: RPI ~58 (NIT more than likely, 20% chance of getting in, wins vs Baylor, @Kansas, and W. Virginia make this scenrio more likely to happen)
18 wins: RPI ~47 (bubble team but probably in, say 90-95% chance of getting in)
19 wins: RPI ~38 (pretty close to lock unless a miracle happens)
20 and above is a no brainer
RPI facts: Highest Power 6 team to get left out: RPI of 40, 49 since expansion to 68.
Lowest Power 6 team to get left out: RPI of 67
2 teams have gotten in with 17 wins, 1 was Okie St. in 2015.
remaining schedule:
vs. West Virginia - ???
@ Kansas - likely L
@ Texas - likely W
vs. Oklahoma likely W
@ Kansas St. - ???
vs. TCU - likely W
@ Tech - ???
vs. Baylor - ???
vs. Oklahoma St. - likely W
@ West Virginia - likely L
ISU wins the likely W games I have, they're at 17 wins, probably need 1-2 wins in conference tourney to get in. Of course, dropping a game in the likely win column would make it a bit tougher.
I think beating W. Virginia or Baylor at home would go a long way to solidifying a bid. 18 wins should be enough to get in this year
At 13 wins, going off of liverpi:
16 and lower is NIT or nothing
17 wins: RPI ~58 (NIT more than likely, 20% chance of getting in, wins vs Baylor, @Kansas, and W. Virginia make this scenrio more likely to happen)
18 wins: RPI ~47 (bubble team but probably in, say 90-95% chance of getting in)
19 wins: RPI ~38 (pretty close to lock unless a miracle happens)
20 and above is a no brainer
RPI facts: Highest Power 6 team to get left out: RPI of 40, 49 since expansion to 68.
Lowest Power 6 team to get left out: RPI of 67
2 teams have gotten in with 17 wins, 1 was Okie St. in 2015.
remaining schedule:
vs. West Virginia - ???
@ Kansas - likely L
@ Texas - likely W
vs. Oklahoma likely W
@ Kansas St. - ???
vs. TCU - likely W
@ Tech - ???
vs. Baylor - ???
vs. Oklahoma St. - likely W
@ West Virginia - likely L
ISU wins the likely W games I have, they're at 17 wins, probably need 1-2 wins in conference tourney to get in. Of course, dropping a game in the likely win column would make it a bit tougher.
I think beating W. Virginia or Baylor at home would go a long way to solidifying a bid. 18 wins should be enough to get in this year
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I get what you're saying. But they are 2 games over .500 with a ridiculous schedule. The 2nd half of SEC play projects much better for them. Losses outside of the top 100 aren't great. Sub-150 is bad, and Sub-200 is BAD. Road loss to the ~55 team? Unless Vanderbilt collapses down the stretch, this is more of a missed opportunity than anything.
The league's a grinder because of parity not quality. The SEC proved that Saturday.
Last year, only 2 teams with 18 regular season wins got in. They were Oregon State and Texas Tech.
- Oregon State was #29 RPI and had RPI Top 25 wins against Utah, California and #2 Oregon
- Texas Tech finished #33 RPI and had three wins against Top 25 RPI teams- #6 Oklahoma, Baylor (road) and Iowa State.
- Syracuse (#68 RPI) was the most universal criticism of a team that should not have gotten in and played in the play in game, which they won and continued all the way to the final four. Their season included top 25 wins over Duke and Texas A&M.
- Vanderbilt (#61 RPI) also played in a play in game. They had regular season wins against top 25 RPI ranked teams Kentucky and Texas A&M
Also I think OSU in the road is our best win now. Think they are #37 RPI. And it was in the road.
Lunardi thinks higher of the Cyclones than a lot of fans on here it seems. Even after loss at Vandy we move UP to a 7 seed today in his latest. Fact is they need to fill the field and there are a LOT of pretty average teams...he even has a 2-6 in the Big 12 Okie State in at this point.
I'm guessing most of the pessimism is from where posters think we'll end up on Selection Sunday rather than right now.
The path isn't as narrow as the doom n gloom fans are currently suggesting. However, even the most optimistic fans have to agree that tomorrow night's game is very big.
Win it, and assuming they don't slip up along the way, we're likely a 4 or five seed in the conf tournament, and a lock for NCAA.
Lose it, and even without slip ups, the Baylor game, and maybe first round in conf tournament, become must win games.
If Iowa St loses tomorrow night, then the path narrows considerably.
