I noticed that as I've been trying to figure out if I need to start coming up with contingency plans for class. Pretty crazy for what's happening in a fairly short distance. Very dynamic situation.
Possible huge snow storm next week?
- Thread starter ClonesTwentyOne
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I noticed that as I've been trying to figure out if I need to start coming up with contingency plans for class. Pretty crazy for what's happening in a fairly short distance. Very dynamic situation.
This reminds me of past freakish winter storms where you'll see a blizzard watch/warning in one area and a tornado watch/warning in another area not too far away.
Here's a report of one such instance in 2009, where the same county in Nebraska had a tornado warning and a blizzard warning at the same time:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...ard-and-tornado-warning-for-same-county/18496
Rain to snow changeover time coupled with timing of the dry slot moving in looks like a major issue roughly along/SE of Highway 169/Highway 30 boundary. Snow totals have the possibility of ending up quite limited, especially the further south and east you get of those boundary lines.
She has been on air all weekend telling me mostly rain in the KC area, so I get to go to work on Tuesday and Wednesday. Boo!!!!
So basically everyone south and east of Ogden:
Yes, that is basically what I feel is reasonable for the extreme edge of who could end up getting very little snow. Again that is only a best/worst case scenario (depending on your perspective).
Actual final position of the cutoff will likely fall SE of there toward Knoxville. The areas between are basically the uncertainty zone right now.
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Is that just for tonight or including tomorrow too? I'm wondering about game time travel.
Game travel from the SE looking better. Travel from NW still looks bad.
Dry slot could take over the SE 1/2 of the state by 10 AM to noon tomorrow. Still play it by ear, but looking better than earlier.
In Des Moines, key will be around 5 to 7 am. If it's raining, it's probably going to be a total snow bust. If it's snow, we could squeeze out a quick 3 to 5 of heavy and wet snow. Either way, it's looking like the dry air will get wrapped in around lunchtime.
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So chances are the snow will be pretty wet, so blowing across roads during around 7:00 p.m. may not be too bad? (fingers crossed)
I don't think it will be as bad during the afternoon south and east of Ames. Late evening temperatures will start to drop and an additional bit of light snow may wrap in that would blow around easier.
Ames will be on the edge of things going to crap though, so I wouldn't necessarily green light it yet.
Ames will be colder than Des Moines, which means fluffier snow, and more blowing. All depends on the timing/placement of dry air and how much temperatures climb in the afternoon.
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Here's what I wish... Instead of throwing a specific prediction out like "Des Moines will get...", which they adjust as the storm closes in, I wish they actually showed viewers some type of probability graph - kind of like a win probability in sports.
Something like this...
Trace-1" = 5% chance
1-2" = 10% chance
2-4" = 60% chance
4-6" = 20% chance
Instead, they use the model (and professional judgement) to give a specific amount, which people take as gospel. If you showed actual predictions, people could draw their own estimations and might be less likely to get ****** at meteorologists. Maybe.
Something like this...
Trace-1" = 5% chance
1-2" = 10% chance
2-4" = 60% chance
4-6" = 20% chance
Instead, they use the model (and professional judgement) to give a specific amount, which people take as gospel. If you showed actual predictions, people could draw their own estimations and might be less likely to get ****** at meteorologists. Maybe.
I would like to give only ranges too. But you know what happens?
People complain. And call us out, and demand we tell them what is going to happen and not just cover our butt.
Everyone thinks 3-6", or 4 to 7 or whatever is a massive range and a cop out.
The difference between 4 and 7" can be as small of a difference as .07" of liquid equivalent and a little snow-to-liquid ratio adjustment.
People want the number, and in the end, we have to show the number, but I almost always SAY the range, and try to finesse what model I use, and what amount I stop it at so that the number falls toward the middle of that range.
I would almost always interpret our graphics to be ~ +/- 1" of the posted number.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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