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2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

I think that was the 10th in-season bracket reveal. I haven't tracked it formally, purely by memory, seems like when ISU has been in top 16, it lost its next game most of the time.

If anyone can find documentation, I'm curious. I found a couple with brief search, First one in '17, ISU wasn't on it (wound up as 5 seed it actual tournament).
 
Guess I don't understand the NET when we drop 3 for losing on the road to a ranked team and Illinois stays the same for losing at home to an unranked? Also no movement in the top 4 after yesterday.
My guess is even with the 4th 1 yesterday tomorrow won't be favorable
 
Lunardi dropped them to a 2 seed this morning albeit the top 2 seed. I suspect dropping the game at Arizona will drop them further down the 2 seed line. Drop any others along the way likely will result in a drop to a 3.
 
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acoustimac said:
Lunardi dropped them to a 2 seed this morning albeit the top 2 seed. I suspect dropping the game at Arizona will drop them further down the 2 seed line. Drop any others along the way likely will result in a drop to a 3.
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Other teams will lose as well. A single loss to Arizona won't drop them too far, unless every other competing team goes perfect.

A loss at Utah or against ASU likely drops Iowa State to a 3 seed, but even a loss at home to Tech probably doesn't.

If Houston wins at Kansas and wins out, they would jump is.
If Illinois beats Michigan and wins out they jump us, but I doubt they beat Michigan.
If Purdue wins out, they would jump is. They could, but do have a couple of tough home games.
If Florida wins out, they would jump us. The definitely could, but their schedule isn't a cakewalk. Home against Arkansas and road games against Texas and Kentucky.

Kansas winning out means Houston loses.
Gonzaga winning out maybe does it. Probably jumps a 2 loss Iowa State but wouldn't jump a 1 loss Iowa State.
Nebraska won't win out
If Michigan State wins out, then Purdue won't (and Michigan potentially isn't a #1 seed lock.

Obviously conference tournament comes into play, but going into that, a 25-6 Iowa State only drops to a 3 seed if Purdue, Illinois, Houston and Florida all win out. Possible, yes. Likely, no.
 
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cydnote said:
Guess I don't understand the NET when we drop 3 for losing on the road to a ranked team and Illinois stays the same for losing at home to an unranked? Also no movement in the top 4 after yesterday.
My guess is even with the 4th 1 yesterday tomorrow won't be favorable
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A lot goes into the net, including similar stuff like kenpom and torvik use. Illinois also lost on the road. I am guessing Iowa State's offensive output drop against a mediocre defensive team cause them to drop if they were barely ahead of a few teams below them.
 
clone52 said:
A lot goes into the net, including similar stuff like kenpom and torvik use. Illinois also lost on the road. I am guessing Iowa State's offensive output drop against a mediocre defensive team cause them to drop if they were barely ahead of a few teams below them.
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My bad, I thought that was a home game.
Geeze, these senior moments are mounting up :):)
 
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acoustimac said:
Lunardi dropped them to a 2 seed this morning albeit the top 2 seed. I suspect dropping the game at Arizona will drop them further down the 2 seed line. Drop any others along the way likely will result in a drop to a 3.
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It takes a lot to move up or down that significantly from one game this time of year.
 
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CycloneJoe6 said:
The committee just had us as a 1 seed yesterday. If we only lose the Arizona game we are 100% a 2 seed
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I would agree that outcome is likely but the teams at the top are REALLY close this year.

It would depend on just what exactly everybody else does.

Somebody like a surging Florida (who hasn't lost a game since 1/24 and favored by no less than 6.8 on Torvik in its remaining four regular season games and is running away with the SEC and looks great in the computers and is going to get something of a "defending champions" boost) could pass us.
 
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If Iowa State goes 3-1 the rest of the way and drops to a 3 I’ll crash out, I admit it. And not because Florida or whoever wouldn’t be deserving, just because it would be such a gut punch
 
A 2 seed is definitely salvageable if they go 3-1 and lose at Arizona… but if those other teams on the 2/3 line win out then it’s going to be a gut punch for sure.
 
I think going 3-1 would be a near lock at a 2 seed. Depending on if Houston/UCONN lose, it may be enough to sneak the last 1 seed. Going 2-2 probably gets the last 2 seed.

I'm as big of Torvick fan as anyone, but for some reason ISU's T-Rank has been 4 spots (1 seed) lower than it was in most other rankings all year. So I would take any Torvick seeding predictions with a grain of salt.
 
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chuckd4735 said:
I said this in another thread, but there a good chance Iowa State moves up in the rankings Monday.
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Agreed. Think it will be something like this

1. Duke
2. Arizona
3. Michigan
4. Iowa State
5. Houston
6. Florida?

Really hard to know when 8/10 top 10 teams lost.
 
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