2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

@Sigmapolis, this came out quick tonight! And I'm loving it!

I went to the gym from 7:30 PM to 9:00 PM.

Turned my phone off.

Came home and watched the game on "tape delay."

Came right here after I finally caught my breath at the end.



They'll be a Team Rankings update tomorrow, but this one was too good to wait.

 

[NENick]

I watched KU on delay, after grandson's basketball tournament. Makes it pretty relaxing!

 

[nrg4isu]

Down to a 8.2% win expectation at 7:09 when Flemings hit that pullup jumper to go up 63-53.

Outscored the Cougars 17-4 the rest of the way.

Great performance. Love this team. Gonna miss Tamin so much when he's gone.

View attachment 167757

Solidly on the #2 line after that win and knocking Houston back a little bit.

View attachment 167758

The #1 is definitely still in play if you win out.

View attachment 167759

Might even be possible with a loss at Arizona, though have to hope somebody else stumbles. Michigan and Duke are close to locks. Have to hope Arizona, Connecticut, and Houston pick up a loss or two.

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Arizona plays at Houston, so there's one guaranteed loss ahead of us.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Arizona plays at Houston, so there's one guaranteed loss ahead of us.

Hurts one but... helps the other.

Need both to probably stumble somehow someway.

 

[NENick]

I think Michigan is the best team in the country. Arizona and Houston close behind. ISU, Duke, UCONN, right there.

Over the past 3 days, the Cyclones showed they can beat anybody, but let's remember, both were home wins.

 

[CHim]

Hurts one but... helps the other.

Need both to probably stumble somehow someway.

Probably want Houston to lose since we already beat them?

Feels like CF could do some content creation around the hate watch/standings cheering situations. Blum usually is up on that stuff on the pods.

 

[ABECyguy]

I think Michigan is the best team in the country. Arizona and Houston close behind. ISU, Duke, UCONN, right there.

Over the past 3 days, the Cyclones showed they can beat anybody, but let's remember, both were home wins.

And this team has also proven they can beat good teams on the road and at neutral sites! But I agree, Hilton made a difference tonight!

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think Michigan is the best team in the country. Arizona and Houston close behind. ISU, Duke, UCONN, right there.

Over the past 3 days, the Cyclones showed they can beat anybody, but let's remember, both were home wins.

Teams being better at home, especially with a legendary home court like Hilton...

...not a shocker.

Yes, this team in particular feeds off its crowd.

But the good news is Cyclone fans travel. And we could easily have this pathway...

St. Louis/OKC
Chicago
Indianapolis

We'll be all over that route. Though yes I know the United Center hasn't been kind in the past.

But there'd be a cardinal and gold convoy to any of the four.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Down to a 8.2% win expectation at 7:09 when Flemings hit that pullup jumper to go up 63-53.

Outscored the Cougars 17-4 the rest of the way.

Great performance. Love this team. Gonna miss Tamin so much when he's gone.

View attachment 167757

Solidly on the #2 line after that win and knocking Houston back a little bit.

View attachment 167758

The #1 is definitely still in play if you win out.

View attachment 167759

Might even be possible with a loss at Arizona, though have to hope somebody else stumbles. Michigan and Duke are close to locks. Have to hope Arizona, Connecticut, and Houston pick up a loss or two.

View attachment 167760

I’m sorry but UCONN is really overrated.

 

[dahliaclone]

I think Michigan is the best team in the country. Arizona and Houston close behind. ISU, Duke, UCONN, right there.

Over the past 3 days, the Cyclones showed they can beat anybody, but let's remember, both were home wins.

I don't know. It depends on the day for the top teams. Michigan looks fantastic but they were damn close to losing to TCU and ******* Penn State. Also were lucky to beat Nebraska at home. They are very good. But also beatable like we're seeing every team is.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I’m sorry but UCONN is really overrated.

I don't know why you're apologizing to me. These computer models don't have feelings. Yet.

You can feel that way. And feel they'll be a bust in the tournament.

But...

Teams and coaches with a championship pedigree get some leeway from the committee.

They're leading the Big East and likely to win it.

Their metrics aren't overwhelming but aren't bad.

They have two "good" losses (home against Arizona, at a good St. John's team) and zero bad ones.

We shouldn't be one to talk with those disappointing Cincinnati and TCU losses.

They're probably pretty safe for a #1 seed unless they drop a game or two.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[rosshm16]

2-seed locked up now, or work to do still? [assuming we don't totally **** the bed and lose to Utah and ASU]

 

[Sigmapolis]

2-seed locked up now, or work to do still? [assuming we don't totally **** the bed and lose to Utah and ASU]

Work to do to be 100% sure on a #2 seed.

 

[dahliaclone]

2-seed locked up now, or work to do still? [assuming we don't totally **** the bed and lose to Utah and ASU]

Unfortunately there are a handful of teams that are also having great seasons so it depends on what they do as well. If we finish no worse than 3-2 (assuming the losses are to AZ and TT let's say) that's 26-5 in the best league in the country. I would be flummoxed if we weren't a 2 seed. But we're looking at Purdue, Nebraska, Kansas, Houston, UCONN (I am assuming AZ, Michigan and Duke are all 1s at this point) and MAYBE even a Florida if they win out. That's 6-7 teams that all could have a strong case for a 2 seed...and it's possible while we'd have a few of the best wins of any of those we'd also very likely have two of the 'worst' losses.

We need to root against those teams. I am a huge Michigan fan tonight. I probably should root for Iowa over Nebraska but simply can't do it.

 

[inCyteful]

Probably want Houston to lose since we already beat them?

Feels like CF could do some content creation around the hate watch/standings cheering situations. Blum usually is up on that stuff on the pods.

I think so, give them 3 losses.
Then we give Arizona their 3rd loss.
Don't doubt me.

 

[interrobang]

Houston had a pretty large gap, closed that at least after last night. AZ and Houston still have a pretty large lead.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[madguy30]

Saunders out may help but that late of a game (at least what they may be used to) in Provo will still be tough.

 

[bosco]

Saunders out may help but that late of a game (at least what they may be used to) in Provo will still be tough.

Someone else here said it. Glad they have a game before us to get the dead cat bounce out of the way.