*** Arizona Pregame Thread ***
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
Michigan St covered vs USC last week.
But generally I agree, they can run into buzz saws out west. Time change / long trips are a real thing.
B1G teams traveling 2- or 3-times zones were 4-16-1 ATS when the spread was >20 pts; was shared on an earlier Chris/Chris episode. (I made a note and have been watching the lines this season).
I heard it there, but it's a stat that is always brought up once conference games start. It'll be fascinating to see if the trend continues.
When Iowa State has the ball:
Arizona blitzes at the 2nd highest rate of all Power 4 teams. 58% of the time.
However, they are graded only at 103rd in QB Pressure.
Where they get you is in their secondary. This is the strength of the defense.
Arizona has the 5th best coverage rate and every QB (I understand QB competition May be lacking) has had a sub 50 passer rating vs them.
So they blitz and cover well.
When facing 4 or less pass rushers, Rocco Becht is 13th nationally QB passer rating.
When facing 5 or More pass rushers, Rocco Becht is 71st nationally QB passer rating.
Rocco will have to make good , quick decisions all night.
Arizona run-blitzes on early downs which leaves opportunities for big gash run plays. It’s likely Abu Sama will break a run or two. Hopefully to the house. It’s also interesting if they will keep RBs in for pass protection or use them in the route concepts. I like the latter, and get Carson or Abu in space.
The TEs as always are going to be key. And Mouser/Rocco will be tempted to throw the go routes. If they do throw those, let’s hope they hit!
I look for a balanced attack with misdirection run plays and dink and dunk passes. Wearing them down by the 4th Q.
We have to stay disciplined and don’t get baited for too many bombs.
Arizona blitzes at the 2nd highest rate of all Power 4 teams. 58% of the time.
However, they are graded only at 103rd in QB Pressure.
Where they get you is in their secondary. This is the strength of the defense.
Arizona has the 5th best coverage rate and every QB (I understand QB competition May be lacking) has had a sub 50 passer rating vs them.
So they blitz and cover well.
When facing 4 or less pass rushers, Rocco Becht is 13th nationally QB passer rating.
When facing 5 or More pass rushers, Rocco Becht is 71st nationally QB passer rating.
Rocco will have to make good , quick decisions all night.
Arizona run-blitzes on early downs which leaves opportunities for big gash run plays. It’s likely Abu Sama will break a run or two. Hopefully to the house. It’s also interesting if they will keep RBs in for pass protection or use them in the route concepts. I like the latter, and get Carson or Abu in space.
The TEs as always are going to be key. And Mouser/Rocco will be tempted to throw the go routes. If they do throw those, let’s hope they hit!
I look for a balanced attack with misdirection run plays and dink and dunk passes. Wearing them down by the 4th Q.
We have to stay disciplined and don’t get baited for too many bombs.
The very likely scenario where we are down and need to drive to ~25 line leaving our freshman walk on kicker to make a 40+ yd FG to win the game has my butthole puckering up already.
Wait, we get a Whiteout AND Color Rush at the same time? What a time to be alive.
Think about it this way...Everything inside the 40 is 25% more downs for Rocco.
Not a bad time to have our most clutch QB ever.
So lots of run (as always), use the tall TEs as the hot read, and tell Rocco not to be afraid to scramble. A lot. Maybe more than a few designed QB draws.
I think it will be really important to win on special teams.
They have one very very good safety and one good safety. They will certainly be used to cover TEs and crash on run support.
There should be 1 on 1 matchups all over the field.
Just have to win the battles.
Williams and Blum did say that Townsend and Sowell have really come on the last 10 days. Hopefully that means some breakout performances by those two.
Other than Konrardy it seems like a lot of good news in the rumor mill and even for him it's good news he will be back this year.
Hmm, tell me more about how BYU is a national brand and basically Mormon Notre Dame.
I really wish we could get to a true streaming only model with true accurate eyeballs who will pay for their team actual ratings. Would be even better for ISU.
- When throwing against non-blitz defense, Rocco's PFF rating is 13th.
- When throwing against the blitz, Rocco's PFF ranks 71st.
- Arizona blitzes more than all but one other team in the P4.
Bottom line, Arizona is gonna bring pressure to Rocco ALL NIGHT LONG. We have to handle it or it's gonna be a long night.
I’m hoping Heacock brings a lot of pressure on Fajita as well. Hate to see him scrambling out of the pocket all night.
I think there are factors that effect this, and some have much more effect than others.
I dont believe the travel distance has that much of an effect, spending 2 hours on a flight vs 1 hour is not really that big of a deal in the grand scheme.
What I do think makes a bigger difference is the time zones. And then even more so when games in those time zones on the extreme early or late windows. So teams are playing in very strange times as to what they are used to.
For instance an eastern team playing in the afterdark window out west. These teams are playing when their bodies think its after midnight. Or when the western teams play in the early 11am window out east. Similarly those team's bodies think they are playing early morning, etc.
If the NCAA, conferences, or whoever made a rule that teams playing across the country, the games must be played in a normal time window for both teams, so if a team is playing 2+ timezones outside their home location, they can not play in a late or early window etc. This would mitigate the issue some, but we all know the TV is king and this will never happen.
