Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gorm]

Feds: Title IX will apply to college revenue share

The U.S. Department of Education said Title IX rules will apply to future revenue dollars payments that schools share with college athletes but declined to offer guidance on how schools should distribute the money between men and women.

www.espn.com

Until a court rules on that, I'm guessing its still an unknown.

 

[RustShack]

I was asking myself why Fox and ESPN would want FSU and Clemson to be in the B12. It is starting to make sense. The B12 has 12 teams in the Top 50 for average football attendance (all but KU, Arizona, Houston and Cincinnati). The ACC has only 8 teams. The B12 is a national conference while the ACC is still largely just a regional conference. If FSU and Clemson do go to the B12, I would expect the B10 will take UNC and Virginia. Then the B12 might want to take NC State and either Va Tech or Pitt or Louisville. The top remaining teams in the ACC, MWC and Pac 2 could merge to form the 4th best conference.

https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-attendance-rankings-2023-five-year-program-analysis

Fox doesn’t have any ACC games, so that could be a reason Fox would like Florida State and Clemson in the Big12. ESPN would still have them too, just not full control anymore.

 

[CoachHines3]

look i know this guy gets a lot of sh*t but in the long run, he hasn't necessarily been wrong

just thought this was interesting:

 

[KnappShack]

I have the same option of this ACC issue as I did for the PAC.

It'd a ******* shame. NC St, Duke, and UNC are so close to each other. ACC basketball and their tournament used to generate so much excitement

If schools like Duke-NC St-UNC can't live in the same conference....WTF are we even doing here?

 

[NorthCyd]

look i know this guy gets a lot of sh*t but in the long run, he hasn't necessarily been wrong

just thought this was interesting:

I'm not giving you crap for posting MHver posts, but he has been wrong about a lot of things. Gotten a couple of things right too. He'll never let anyone forget he called the USC and UCLA move to the B1G.

 

[CoachHines3]

I'm not giving you crap for posting MHver posts, but he has been wrong about a lot of things. Gotten a couple of things right too. He'll never let anyone forget he called the USC and UCLA move to the B1G.

i give him more credit than Swaim but i don't disagree with you.

 

[alenz95]

look i know this guy gets a lot of sh*t but in the long run, he hasn't necessarily been wrong

just thought this was interesting:

Didn't FSU also look at private equity last year? Its an interesting parallel if both they and the Big-12 have decided private equity is a good route to go down. it could be entirely coincidental that both have explored the same options, or it could be a dot to connect in the FSU to the Big-12 rumor mill.

 

[CascadeClone]

I have the same option of this ACC issue as I did for the PAC.

It'd a ******* shame. NC St, Duke, and UNC are so close to each other. ACC basketball and their tournament used to generate so much excitement

If schools like Duke-NC St-UNC can't live in the same conference....WTF are we even doing here?

Money. Money is what we are doing here.

Everyone hates it, but the TV people want money, and are adroit at playing every school and conference against each other with the threat of falling behind forever if they don't play along.

There's a certain amount of Prisoners Dilemma for schools - if you don't take the money, but your rivals do... you are boned. And they have the same choice. So the only move is to take the money. Until and unless schools/conferences find a way to stick together, there's no other outcome. And unfortunately, the conferences especially see money as a way to win and beat out rival conferences, so they are opposed to it.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Money. Money is what we are doing here.

Everyone hates it, but the TV people want money, and are adroit at playing every school and conference against each other with the threat of falling behind forever if they don't play along.

There's a certain amount of Prisoners Dilemma for schools - if you don't take the money, but your rivals do... you are boned. And they have the same choice. So the only move is to take the money. Until and unless schools/conferences find a way to stick together, there's no other outcome. And unfortunately, the conferences especially see money as a way to win and beat out rival conferences, so they are opposed to it.

110%. The B10 and SEC make decisions based on money out of fear of falling behind one another. The rest of the schools make decisions solely on money out of fear of extinction. So it continues to be a self-fulfilling prophecy into a downward spiral

 

[exCyDing]

I think a strategy to break up the ACC (or at least, get some schools out of the ACC) might be starting to emerge, and the details are all mirroring what happened with the B12 around OUT and the PAC from USCLA to their collapse.

First, ESPN declines their option on the ACC deal after 2027. Is there anyone that can step in with enough money and linear access to provide a competitive deal? That's ultimately what killed the PAC. Obviously, ESPN is out of the equation, leaving Fox, CBS, and NBC. Fox would probably be fine bolstering the B10 and B12.

Second, FSU, Clemson and anyone else who wants to jump in fight the ACC in court over the GOR. Not having a media deal in place, and not having any offers that keep pace with at least the B12, would add fuel to the fire and give their case more legitimacy.

Third, the B10, B12 and SEC sniff around their desired programs. The B10 wants UNC and UVA. The SEC, Clemson and FSU. Personally, I think the SEC takes Miami to keep the B10 out of Florida and either NC State or VTech to even out the numbers. The B12 goes after Pitt, Louisville, the other of NC State/VTech and then 1 more (Duke? Syracuse?). With nothing in place after 2027 (and bad offers), the mid-tier teams have a reason to look out for themselves.

Fourth, approach ND and the schools not being courted by the other conferences about a reconstituted ACC. ND is the key here as the anchor of the conference. They need the ACC as a home for their non-football sports and a handful of football games a year to fill out their schedule. Money isn't the biggest thing (they get ~$17m/year from the ACC, $50m from their NBC deal), but football independence is huge. They'd have two long-standing rivals in the new ACC (BC, Stanford), and let them pick anyone they want to fill out the rest of the conference.

Fifth, assuming the GOR is still an obstacle (court cases like this can take years), they'd need to get 12 schools on board with dissolving the conference. I've outlined how to get 11 (10 to the B10, SEC or B12, plus ND), they'd just need 1 of the left-behind schools to accept. Going back to step 1, they don't have a deal post 2027, and no offers that a majority of the conference is going to accept.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

A lot of the B10 schools are now hooked on this ever increasing pile of TV money for the tune of 100's of millions of dollars because they have been building facilities or upgrading them since the start. Look at EIU the Covid season, they had to ask the school for money to pay the bills, look at the revenue charts the past couple of years they are in the black, but barely, its being spent on salaries and facilities as fast as its coming in. They had to scale back their baseball rebuild because of lack of funds, they have put the remodel of Carver on hold for awhile.

 

[2speedy1]

Here is something to think about too.

If the ACC does fall, will it basically Force ND to go to a conference?

Thinking how the conferences are adding games in conf. and there are less and less opportunities to schedule non con P4 games, then will some conf refuse to schedule a team like ND if they refuse to join?

Will ND be forced to join, to get the rest of their sports in a conference? Will they be forced to join, in order to fill out a schedule? If the ACC does fall, it seems that ND will be between a rock and a Hard place.

I have nothing solid to base this on, just spitballing, a what if scenario with you..

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Here is something to think about too.

If the ACC does fall, will it basically Force ND to go to a conference?

Thinking how the conferences are adding games in conf. and there are less and less opportunities to schedule non con P4 games, then will some conf refuse to schedule a team like ND if they refuse to join?

Will ND be forced to join, to get the rest of their sports in a conference? Will they be forced to join, in order to fill out a schedule? If the ACC does fall, it seems that ND will be between a rock and a Hard place.

I have nothing solid to base this on, just spitballing, a what if scenario with you..

ND will do what is best for ND and could care less about anyone else. They value the freedom of being an independent and will only join a conference if that has no chance of continuing. They will need a place to put their other sports, that could be in the AAC or the Big East, and then find 13 football games each season. Unlike most schools ND would not have trouble finding teams to play them, basically many schools in the country would play them even if it meant doing a 2 for 1 deal or 1 in South Bend and the 2nd game at a neural site.

 

[Freebird]

look i know this guy gets a lot of sh*t but in the long run, he hasn't necessarily been wrong

just thought this was interesting:

You can be right sometimes when you talk out of both sides of your mouth and embellish on already known or speculated facts. This guy is as correct as a horoscope. He’s ******* ****.

 

[cykadelic2]

Here is something to think about too.

If the ACC does fall, will it basically Force ND to go to a conference?

Thinking how the conferences are adding games in conf. and there are less and less opportunities to schedule non con P4 games, then will some conf refuse to schedule a team like ND if they refuse to join?

Will ND be forced to join, to get the rest of their sports in a conference? Will they be forced to join, in order to fill out a schedule? If the ACC does fall, it seems that ND will be between a rock and a Hard place.

I have nothing solid to base this on, just spitballing, a what if scenario with you..

If the ACC implodes, ND can stay indy in FB and I am assuming the Big East would invite them for their other sports. They should not have a problem scheduling FB games without the existing ACC partnership.

 

[Cloneon]

If the ACC implodes, ND can stay indy in FB and I am assuming the Big East would invite them for their other sports. They should not have a problem scheduling FB games without the existing ACC partnership.

Not sure ND can have its way much longer. Top tiers from mega conferences will decreasingly take that OOC risk. Especially as conferences grow. Mid tier might, but ND will need at least one resume builder and to hope a mid-tier beats a top-tier within their own conference to get an 'associative' boost will also become more scarce as the top tiers play the scheduling game to their advantage. That said, of course ND can have their pick of conference. But remaining indy is going to become much more difficult. Just my opinion.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Not sure ND can have its way much longer. Top tiers from mega conferences will decreasingly take that OOC risk. Especially as conferences grow. Mid tier might, but ND will need at least one resume builder and to hope a mid-tier beats a top-tier within their own conference to get an 'associative' boost will also become more scarce as the top tiers play the scheduling game to their advantage. That said, of course ND can have their pick of conference. But remaining indy is going to become much more difficult. Just my opinion.

Unless conferences start to go to 10 or 11 conference games for football, there are plenty of dates for teams to play ND each season. Looks like ND offers 13 varsity sports, it would be easy for them to join the Big East, currently at 11 teams, mostly catholic schools to get them to 12. If the ACC goes up in flames there are going to be a number of teams looking to join a new conference, so teams like Stanford, Cal, SMU, and others will be looking for games to play along with ND. Just playing the left over schools from the ACC would fill out at least half the ND football schedule.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Unless conferences start to go to 10 or 11 conference games for football, there are plenty of dates for teams to play ND each season. Looks like ND offers 13 varsity sports, it would be easy for them to join the Big East, currently at 11 teams, mostly catholic schools to get them to 12. If the ACC goes up in flames there are going to be a number of teams looking to join a new conference, so teams like Stanford, Cal, SMU, and others will be looking for games to play along with ND. Just playing the left over schools from the ACC would fill out at least half the ND football schedule.

The problem isn’t the number of spots it’s how many P3 teams want to schedule ND deep into their season. No SEC team is putting them in past week 3/4. I don’t see many big ten teams signing up for that type of game either outside of USC that will keep their final game.

If the ACC dies it could also open up a change in the playoff rules that could possibly leave ND out if they didn’t have a tie to a conference.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The problem isn’t the number of spots it’s how many P3 teams want to schedule ND deep into their season. No SEC team is putting them in past week 3/4. I don’t see many big ten teams signing up for that type of game either outside of USC that will keep their final game.

If the ACC dies it could also open up a change in the playoff rules that could possibly leave ND out if they didn’t have a tie to a conference.

All those teams will have a bye week during the season, how many are going to pass on a chance to play ND to fill that week? No one said it would be easy to fill out their schedule, but teams like BYU did it and they aren't ND. Difficult yes, but not impossible, plus the B12 would take them in a moment under the same type of deal that the ACC offered them, play 5 conference games each season and all their other sports. The B10 and SEC I doubt would take that deal, but the B12 would.

 

[dafarmer]

I am waiting for someone brings up adding WDM Valley ,or Dowling Catholic for the BIG 12.