Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[MountainManHawk]

According to this the payout for a CFP appearance is $6 mill to the conference, plus expenses to the school, there's no additional payout for making the championship game.

College Football Playoff Payouts 2023-2024

How much do teams make for the College Football Playoff? We've got the 2023-24 revenue distribution plan plus payouts from past years.

businessofcollegesports.com

I think the $80-$100 mill projection for B1G schools was based just on the TV/media rights and doesn't include CFP/bowl payouts. So if your numbers are right, that means that on the back half of the new B1G deal each school will actually be making $110-$130 mill/year. Surprised I haven't seen any articles/reports/posts about that, seems pretty large.

There are so many numbers floating around that it’s impossible to keep straight but I’m pretty sure it’s just $80m for the TV rights at the end of the deal and then people back of the envelope assume maybe another $20m for everything else to get to $100m, but obviously that part is a guess. The BigTen never announced exact numbers but articles say roughly $8b over 7 years so just divide $1.4b by 17 (assuming the BigTen office continues to get a share equal to the 16 teams) and you get roughly $80m.

The SEC hasn’t released exact figures but this article says even after adding Ou/UT it will be just $70m including everything so meaningfully behind the BigTen. I’ve read articles about how weird it will be when teams like Rutgers make more than Alabama… The article implies that they will try to renegotiate with ESPN to close the gap, maybe by going to 9 conference games or playing some on Thursdays and Fridays or other things they’ve previously not wanted to do but that’s all yet to be determined.



How much money are we talking about? In February, the SEC announced an annual revenue distribution of about $55 million per school. This year, Iowa received $57 million from the Big Ten. Those figures include television revenue, bowl revenue, College Football Playoff revenue and NCAA men’s basketball tournament revenue, and both figures will only rise thanks to new TV deals.
In May, Florida football coach Billy Napier said SEC projections shown to schools suggest the payout per school will increase to somewhere between the high $60 millions and the low $70 millions when the league’s new $300 million-a-year deal with Disney for the games CBS was broadcasting kicks in. Big Ten revenue distributions will top those numbers once these new deals begin next year. The gap between the Big Ten and SEC won’t be as wide as it is between the SEC and whichever league winds up No. 3, but it should be larger than it was before.

The SEC-Big Ten TV deal battle is about more than theme songs

College football’s obsession with conference superiority is quickly turning into strictly a two-league affair.

theathletic.com

 

[BCClone]

There are so many numbers floating around that it’s impossible to keep straight but I’m pretty sure it’s just $80m for the TV rights at the end of the deal and then people back of the envelope assume maybe another $20m for everything else to get to $100m, but obviously that part is a guess. The BigTen never announced exact numbers but articles say roughly $8b over 7 years so just divide $1.4b by 17 (assuming the BigTen office continues to get a share equal to the 16 teams) and you get roughly $80m.

The SEC hasn’t released exact figures but this article says even after adding Ou/UT it will be just $70m including everything so meaningfully behind the BigTen. I’ve read articles about how weird it will be when teams like Rutgers make more than Alabama… The article implies that they will try to renegotiate with ESPN to close the gap, maybe by going to 9 conference games or playing some on Thursdays and Fridays or other things they’ve previously not wanted to do but that’s all yet to be determined.



How much money are we talking about? In February, the SEC announced an annual revenue distribution of about $55 million per school. This year, Iowa received $57 million from the Big Ten. Those figures include television revenue, bowl revenue, College Football Playoff revenue and NCAA men’s basketball tournament revenue, and both figures will only rise thanks to new TV deals.
In May, Florida football coach Billy Napier said SEC projections shown to schools suggest the payout per school will increase to somewhere between the high $60 millions and the low $70 millions when the league’s new $300 million-a-year deal with Disney for the games CBS was broadcasting kicks in. Big Ten revenue distributions will top those numbers once these new deals begin next year. The gap between the Big Ten and SEC won’t be as wide as it is between the SEC and whichever league winds up No. 3, but it should be larger than it was before.

The SEC-Big Ten TV deal battle is about more than theme songs

College football’s obsession with conference superiority is quickly turning into strictly a two-league affair.

theathletic.com

I would recheck your math. 8B divided by 7 years is 1.14BThen divide by 17 and it’s 67.22MM.

 

[Gonzo]

There are so many numbers floating around that it’s impossible to keep straight but I’m pretty sure it’s just $80m for the TV rights at the end of the deal and then people back of the envelope assume maybe another $20m for everything else to get to $100m, but obviously that part is a guess. The BigTen never announced exact numbers but articles say roughly $8b over 7 years so just divide $1.4b by 17 (assuming the BigTen office continues to get a share equal to the 16 teams) and you get roughly $80m.

The SEC hasn’t released exact figures but this article says even after adding Ou/UT it will be just $70m including everything so meaningfully behind the BigTen. I’ve read articles about how weird it will be when teams like Rutgers make more than Alabama… The article implies that they will try to renegotiate with ESPN to close the gap, maybe by going to 9 conference games or playing some on Thursdays and Fridays or other things they’ve previously not wanted to do but that’s all yet to be determined.



How much money are we talking about? In February, the SEC announced an annual revenue distribution of about $55 million per school. This year, Iowa received $57 million from the Big Ten. Those figures include television revenue, bowl revenue, College Football Playoff revenue and NCAA men’s basketball tournament revenue, and both figures will only rise thanks to new TV deals.
In May, Florida football coach Billy Napier said SEC projections shown to schools suggest the payout per school will increase to somewhere between the high $60 millions and the low $70 millions when the league’s new $300 million-a-year deal with Disney for the games CBS was broadcasting kicks in. Big Ten revenue distributions will top those numbers once these new deals begin next year. The gap between the Big Ten and SEC won’t be as wide as it is between the SEC and whichever league winds up No. 3, but it should be larger than it was before.

The SEC-Big Ten TV deal battle is about more than theme songs

College football’s obsession with conference superiority is quickly turning into strictly a two-league affair.

theathletic.com

Agree. Payments are backloaded so it sounds like they'll be a little bit more than the most recent per-team payouts for the first few years and then jump to the $80+ mill in the back half of the contract.

 

[BryceC]

I think we will be right in the middle. But I am not sure there will be a Pac to compare to either.

I think we will start our contract in the 45-50M per, if nothing changes from now, and end in the 70-75M, including playoff expansion estimates. This is with the B1G/SEC being in the 100M range ending their contract. With further expansion, I think we could add slightly, especially if a conference is disbanded, but that could also increase the B1G/SEC ending values as well, so we wouldn't exactly gain on them.

It really depends on if there is a PAC, if there is an ACC. If there are 3, 4, or 5 to compare to.

Really I think no matter what we will land in a range midway between the PAC/ACC and the B1G/SEC. I think if the PAC folds it will strengthen that number a bit, if not it will lower our number a bit. If the ACC folds too, it will strengthen our number more, but it will also strengthen the B1G/SEC number as well.

I agree that we'll do better than the PAC, but I don't know if we'll be in the middle. Remember, the PAC is getting 30 million per right now. I think there are reasons for that beyond the valuation of the schools (the fact that the conference will most likely not exist in any meaningful way is the biggest part of that) but I don't think that Big 12 schools are worth significantly more than PAC schools.

I am assuming we start out at like 40 and maybe make it to 50 by the end of the deal. People seem to be more passionate about this topic than I am - the fact is we'll know who is right soon enough, and I sincerely hope you're right and I'm wrong.

 

[SCNCY]

I agree that we'll do better than the PAC, but I don't know if we'll be in the middle. Remember, the PAC is getting 30 million per right now. I think there are reasons for that beyond the valuation of the schools (the fact that the conference will most likely not exist in any meaningful way is the biggest part of that) but I don't think that Big 12 schools are worth significantly more than PAC schools.

I am assuming we start out at like 40 and maybe make it to 50 by the end of the deal. People seem to be more passionate about this topic than I am - the fact is we'll know who is right soon enough, and I sincerely hope you're right and I'm wrong.

The general feeling I get is that our new deal will start where our current one ends.

 

[CycloneBax]

Based on the fact that NBC, CBS and FOX are doing over the air for the highest dollar games, I'm suspecting that who ever is advertising during those games will have to inflate the price of their products to cover that cost.

 

[RustShack]

I admit I don't know exactly how all this works, but isn't the B1G package a signed and done deal? If so, why add any more teams now and spread that money out among more teams?

Isn't the time to add teams when you are in negotiations for a new TV deal... like the B1G did when they added USC and UCLA? I don't see how adding teams to the B1G now helps them at all?

There are clauses built in for adding teams. Some negotiating would happen and they would get the approval before adding. Big12 used to have a clause for adding teams but it was taken out during the last renegotiating.

But the schools the B1G are looking at adding(besides ND) would likely bring ESPN into the fold for the extra late night window assuming it’s more PAC schools they are adding.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

There are clauses built in for adding teams. Some negotiating would happen and they would get the approval before adding. Big12 used to have a clause for adding teams but it was taken out during the last renegotiating.

But the schools the B1G are looking at adding(besides ND) would likely bring ESPN into the fold for the extra late night window assuming it’s more PAC schools they are adding.

Yeah the deal has a clause in which it can go up to 10 billion based on teams being added.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The general feeling I get is that our new deal will start where our current one ends.

I hope this is true and if so it would be a masterstroke by the big12 in terms of the teams they added. If the new four are able to make up the complete difference in OUT leaving then the people in charge deserve a raise.

 

[WhoISthis]

Cause athletic departments don't always have the ability to quickly pivot in their budget. Take ISU for example. If the Big12 were to break up and they went to a lower level, those stadium bonds don't go away. The coaches contracts can't just be ripped up. Even lower levels still have some scholarship obligations.

As for the political capital. It'll be the state taxpayers' on the hook for shortfalls in the budget. So it doesn't matter how many fans are in the seats. It matters to everyone in the state.

We’re talking lower level. Currently $85 million for all the G5 schools combined. The amount each school would be losing isn’t enough to be a political issue via tax burden on long term debt

Ask Cincinnati, UConn, and even USF if politics will prevent a decrease in revenue resulting from consolidation by big conferences.

 

[Clonedogg]

I hope this is true and if so it would be a masterstroke by the big12 in terms of the teams they added. If the new four are able to make up the complete difference in OUT leaving then the people in charge deserve a raise.

I don't think it'd necessarily means that those 4 are as valuable as OuT. Live sports are also just more valuable now, than even 5-10 years ago. If OuT had stayed and nothing changed in the CFB landscape, Big12 would be getting a raise because of that live sports inflation.

 

[SCNCY]

I don't think it'd necessarily means that those 4 are as valuable as OuT. Live sports are also just more valuable now, than even 5-10 years ago. If OuT had stayed and nothing changed in the CFB landscape, Big12 would be getting a raise because of that live sports inflation.

If OUt had stayed, we’d still be in third place as far as media money goes, but we’d be a lot closer to the SEC than away from it. Plus with OUT’s third tier rights, they’d probably be right there with the SEC schools.

 

[AlaCyclone]

So no new news, got it.

Four Corner Schools to the Big Xii or Bust!

 

[cyman05]

The general feeling I get is that our new deal will start where our current one ends.

I hope this is true and if so it would be a masterstroke by the big12 in terms of the teams they added. If the new four are able to make up the complete difference in OUT leaving then the people in charge deserve a raise.

Yeah, I heard somewhere a year or two ago that they were hoping the value of rights would be roughly double in 2025 as what they were now. But OUT was roughly half of the value. So I think the gut feel is that while the B10 is going to see a huge increase we’re anticipating around the same payout

 

[SCNCY]

Yeah, I heard somewhere a year or two ago that they were hoping the value of rights would be roughly double in 2025 as what they were now. But OUT was roughly half of the value. So I think the gut feel is that while the B10 is going to see a huge increase we’re anticipating around the same payout

If that’s the case, then OUT was a little hasty. If I recall correctly, the BIG 12 hired a consultant to determine what their new TV rights would be several years ago. If I remember, Fox didn’t really provide an estimate and ESPN kinda low balled the BIG12, this probably putting their plan in motion. Low ball estimate leads OUT to look around and thus, begin the process to leave for the SEC.

If OUt would have stayed, I think they’d still be financially competitive, and have an easier path to the playoff; even if the playoff expands, it’d still be an easier path for them in the Big 12.

 

[2speedy1]

I agree that we'll do better than the PAC, but I don't know if we'll be in the middle. Remember, the PAC is getting 30 million per right now. I think there are reasons for that beyond the valuation of the schools (the fact that the conference will most likely not exist in any meaningful way is the biggest part of that) but I don't think that Big 12 schools are worth significantly more than PAC schools.

I am assuming we start out at like 40 and maybe make it to 50 by the end of the deal. People seem to be more passionate about this topic than I am - the fact is we'll know who is right soon enough, and I sincerely hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Its only speculation and guessing that what the PAC offer has been, no one knows for sure. But if the 30M per number is correct you have to understand that is just their media number, and that does not include their tier 3 which is on their PAC network, nor any other pay like bowl pay, playoff pay, ad pay, NCAA pay etc.

So say we hope to get 35-40M per, for a media deal. Then you have to add Tier 3, Bowl Pay, Playoff Pay, NCAA pay, Ad Pay, etc. All that would put us over 50M just to start. Then if the estimates are correct and the playoff increases our pay by 10M+ that would put us over 60M without even any yearly growth added in.

And as far as a playoff expansion, They are talking Billions for a deal for the playoff expansion.

When you look at this chart if you add in modest increases for the cost of time and inflation, consider tier 1,2 will be similar or more even without OUT as has been reported, Here showing $26M per. It is easy to see a few million here and there and then a bump of 10M for the playoff expansion, which is conservative to what is being estimated, it is not that hard to be optimistic that the Big 12 will be paying over 60M after 2025, and closer to 70M by 2030.

Now you can believe we will get no increases, or we will get decreases, you can believe all the doom and gloom the Hawk fans love to spew because they think they are superior. Or you can just be optimistic that we will be better off than what they say.

Big 12 w/ Texas & Oklahoma	20-21
Tier 1-2	$26.0
Tier 3 (ESPN+)	$4.0
Tier 3 (Sponsorships, radio, etc.)	$11.0
Big 12 Championship ($20mm)	$2.0
Sugar Bowl ($30mm)	$3.0
NCAA Championship (17-21)	$1.2
TOTAL	$47.2

 

[Big_Sill]

Its only speculation and guessing that what the PAC offer has been, no one knows for sure. But if the 30M per number is correct you have to understand that is just their media number, and that does not include their tier 3 which is on their PAC network, nor any other pay like bowl pay, playoff pay, ad pay, NCAA pay etc.

So say we hope to get 35-40M per, for a media deal. Then you have to add Tier 3, Bowl Pay, Playoff Pay, NCAA pay, Ad Pay, etc. All that would put us over 50M just to start. Then if the estimates are correct and the playoff increases our pay by 10M+ that would put us over 60M without even any yearly growth added in.

And as far as a playoff expansion, They are talking Billions for a deal for the playoff expansion.

When you look at this chart if you add in modest increases for the cost of time and inflation, consider tier 1,2 will be similar or more even without OUT as has been reported, Here showing $26M per. It is easy to see a few million here and there and then a bump of 10M for the playoff expansion, which is conservative to what is being estimated, it is not that hard to be optimistic that the Big 12 will be paying over 60M after 2025, and closer to 70M by 2030.

Now you can believe we will get no increases, or we will get decreases, you can believe all the doom and gloom the Hawk fans love to spew because they think they are superior. Or you can just be optimistic that we will be better off than what they say.

Big 12 w/ Texas & Oklahoma	20-21
Tier 1-2	$26.0
Tier 3 (ESPN+)	$4.0
Tier 3 (Sponsorships, radio, etc.)	$11.0
Big 12 Championship ($20mm)	$2.0
Sugar Bowl ($30mm)	$3.0
NCAA Championship (17-21)	$1.2
TOTAL	$47.2

Where has any reputable source said that tier 1 /2 will be equal or higher without OuT?

 

[BCClone]

Where has any reputable source said that tier 1 /2 will be equal or higher without OuT?

Bowlsby said that OuT will be a 5MM payout hit. So when you factor in the playoffs, that should do it.

 

[2speedy1]

Where has any reputable source said that tier 1 /2 will be equal or higher without OuT?

Notice even this analytic firm estimates no drop in pay post OUT in 2025. The dont give the Big 12 the 15M+/- bump for the playoff expansion in 2026 all the others get though. Their members are very biased against the Big 12.

The there have also been several other reports that say that our pay is not expected to drop now post OUT, partly because of our additions but also the doom and gloom was overestimated initially.

 

[RustShack]

Why would the PAC’s number not include their T3? The Big12 WAS the only conference that didn’t, but a few years ago when ESPN+ took over T3 was included, just not for Texas and Oklahoma who’s was higher.