Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyIclSoneU]

I know this Twitter guy is just throwing stuff out there, but the desperation in that move by those two, does make me sad. Because their fate looks pretty grim...

I would be shocked if Pollard didn't call up the B1G, Pac-12, ACC, and SEC last summer in similar desperation. You never know how things will shake out...

 

[helechopper]

The Big12 should invite Washington State and Oregon State just to **** with UO and UW.

I’m in the “no to Colorado” camp. Decisions have implications and they need to sleep the broken bed they made.

 

[2speedy1]

I have seen reports that ND is only paid $15M from NBC.
Anyone know what the number is that hey get from the ACC? I would assume they dont get a full share?

Is NBC going to match the potential $100M+ to keep them independent. My guess that is what is needed, with the added ACC money. With the understanding this is compounded over 10+ years whether 100M is starting or somewhere down the road.

 

[SCNCY]

No source here. But it wouldn't shock me if they circle up with other elite academic schools and make a "nerd" conference. Their academic endowment is more important than competition on the football field. Cal hasn't been relevant in football or men's basketball in over a decade. Stanford had been fading lately.

Maybe they are hoping the Big 10 rates academics higher than they actually are. Those two schools seem to think their **** don’t stink, so not surprising they would think they Big 10 has them higher on their list they they actually are.

I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Stanford if it meant academic cooperation among member schools. A school with good tech ties could do some good for our grads.

 

[BCClone]

While it makes sense on the surface, what do Cal and Stanford see as alternatives that measure up academically? If 4 or more schools leave the Pac, seems like Stanford and Cal would end up in the MWC if they don't come to the B12. MWC isn't exactly an academic powerhouse either.

ACC

 

[SCNCY]

I have seen reports that ND is only paid $15M from NBC.
Anyone know what the number is that hey get from the ACC? I would assume they dont get a full share?

Is NBC going to match the potential $100M+ to keep them independent. My guess that is what is needed, with the added ACC money. With the understanding this is compounded over 10+ years whether 100M is starting or somewhere down the road.

Someone earlier was saying their total media package is 40-50 million range. Not sure where it all comes from though.

 

[Bestaluckcy]

The Big 12 is working to get the Arizona schools right now. Next would be Utah. I feel well sourced on that. I've heard we are slow playing CU as Washington is on the table.

Some like CU while others feel they shouldn't be allowed back in. Hearing little to no interest on either end from Cal and Stanford to the Big 12. They look down on the leagues academia and fox doesn't view them as good for TV versus others.

This person seemed rather confident and has been right more than wrong since we met.

This reaks to me like Baylor and TX Tech against Colorado because of the way Colorado took the PAC spot and put the kabosh to the great southern school exodus when UT got crosswise with the Texas legislature. The first thing in real estate is location location location.

 

[BCClone]

I have seen reports that ND is only paid $15M from NBC.
Anyone know what the number is that hey get from the ACC? I would assume they dont get a full share?

Is NBC going to match the potential $100M+ to keep them independent. My guess that is what is needed, with the added ACC money. With the understanding this is compounded over 10+ years whether 100M is starting or somewhere down the road.

8 MM from ACC.

 

[KnappShack]

What about a league with 3 "Tigers"...SEC.

Does Missouri really count?

 

[JP4CY]

Does Missouri really count?

 

[heitclone]

Colorado getting nudged out by Washington would be really interesting. I always liked them in the league and felt like they were a no brainer to bring back but if you're choosing between those two, the AZ schools and Utah, I'd probably have CU 5th.

The big 12 would also have the long term advantage knowing that whenever the ACC is blown up and we see more movement, whatever is left of the pac 12 is going to still be out there unclaimed. They can probably always get them now.

 

[CloneFanInKC]

I didn’t predict any of OU, Texas, USC, or UCLA moving, so the only thing I am confident about is that I don’t know what’s going to happen. That said, I think there are two truths that will guide next steps.

1. Nobody can leave the ACC due to ACC’s grant of rights through 2036. The civil liability a school would owe for violating a grant of rights is enormous; It would simply cost too much for any individual or small group of schools to break that contract.

2. The Big 10 and SEC will not add schools that do not add revenue for existing members, which means no more schools will be added unless they have media rights worth >$110M annually. Every single one of the Big 10 and SEC’s moves since the Big 10 added Penn State back in the day has been revenue enhancing for their existing members. Even when the Big 10 added lowly Rutgers, it helped open New York market to Big 10 network. The thing is, the SEC and Big 10 media contracts are now so valuable that every school (or group of schools) they add has to have media rights worth $110M+ per school annually, or else adding a school means LESS money for existing members. There are literally no schools that meet that criteria left in the Big 12 or Pac 12. For example, a few pages back folks linked a Fox Sports exec explaining that Oregon and Washington’s media rights are only worth $30M annually. Even if that’s a low ball estimate, that’s WAY under what the Big 10 would require in order for those schools to be revenue enhancing for their existing members. And even though it would be impossible for any school to leave the ACC, even if they could, it is also true that no school in that league is worth $110M+, including Clemson (small market)/Florida State/Miami.

The only school left on the table that has media rights worth $110M annually is Notre Dame; therefore, there won’t be any additional moves by the Big 10 or SEC unless Notre Dame decides to move. Notre Dame is bound by the ACC’s grant of rights for most sports but not football. That means Notre Dame could probably move if they wanted to, but a move outside the ACC would still be costly. I have also read that Notre Dame is contractually committed to joining ACC for football if it joins a conference, and that may also limit Notre Dame’s ability to join any conference other than ACC. And Notre Dame’s identity is wrapped up in remaining independent. Notre Dame isn’t a good fit for SEC. So, taking all that into account, Notre Dame’s choice (if they have one) is likely between full membership in Big 10 or continuing independence/partial membership in ACC. I could see this choice going either way.

If Notre Dame joins Big 10, then I think Big 10 adds 1-3 schools from Pac 10; this would satisfy all truths noted above. A group of 2 schools including Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon or or Stanford would be revenue enhancing to the Big 10, and would not violate ACC grant of rights as to football. Probably just Notre Dame + 1 more.

Given the contractual issues noted above, I think it is more likely that Notre Dame says no to the Big 10 and works out a favorable deal with ACC, preserving independence but maybe adding regular access to ACC championship game like ACC provided Notre Dame recently in exchange for increasing number of ACC games. I could see ACC adding West Virginia in this scenario to get to 16 schools, matching SEC and Big 10. This combination would likely be revenue enhancing, and would not violate ACC grant of rights.

Ok, so what happens to Big 12 and Pac 12? I don’t know. But it is clear that there will be a collection of somewhat valuable schools that will never be invited to Big 10 or SEC; even Oregon will probably get left out of the club. If I had to guess, I’d guess/hope that once the dust settles with Notre Dame, the top 16 most valuable remaining schools in Big 12 and Pac 12 will form a new conference and leave behind the weaker schools. I think Iowa State is one of the top 16 schools but I don’t think that is certain.

Lots of talking heads are saying the Big 10 and SEC are destined to form super conferences of something like 40 teams total and then have their own playoff. I would bet good money against this. The Big 10 and SEC are now in position to set the terms for an incredibly valuable playoff and capture most of the revenue from that playoff for themselves; they can do that staying at 16 and without adding schools that reduce media rights value - i.e. schools that aren’t individually worth $110M annually. Plus keeping the playoff open to all FBS schools probably reduces antitrust risk.

Bottom line: Iowa State is probably going to be included in a group of second tier schools that make decent money and still have playoff access. Will be interesting to see what Notre Dame does, whether there is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger of some kind or if new conference composed of most valuable remaining schools is formed, and if there is new conference whether Iowa State is included.

Please stop; logic isn’t suppose to exist here on CF

(Jimlad)

 

[everyyard]

Colorado getting nudged out by Washington would be really interesting. I always liked them in the league and felt like they were a no brainer to bring back but if you're choosing between those two, the AZ schools and Utah, I'd probably have CU 5th.

The big 12 would also have the long term advantage knowing that whenever the ACC is blown up and we see more movement, whatever is left of the pac 12 is going to still be out there unclaimed. They can probably always get them now.

Screw that. You pick ONE of the AZ schools and nab Utah, Wash, AND Colo.

 

[CoKane]

Screw that. You pick ONE of the AZ schools and nab Utah, Wash, AND Colo.

Id rather take both Zonas for their rivalry and cut Colorado

 

[KnappShack]

Colorado getting nudged out by Washington would be really interesting. I always liked them in the league and felt like they were a no brainer to bring back but if you're choosing between those two, the AZ schools and Utah, I'd probably have CU 5th.

The big 12 would also have the long term advantage knowing that whenever the ACC is blown up and we see more movement, whatever is left of the pac 12 is going to still be out there unclaimed. They can probably always get them now.

We always hear about protected rivalry games.

Maybe UCF and Washington would have the opposite of that. Agree to not play each other or look for a neutral site.

That is a whopper of a travel day.

 

[everyyard]

Id rather take both Zonas for their rivalry and cut Colorado

The other Zona will still be there. Same market.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Id rather take both Zonas for their rivalry and cut Colorado

Ignore him - he still thinks TV today works the same way it did back in the early 2010s, and also thinks that if the Big 10 could take a mulligan on the early 2010s they'd still take Rutgers and Maryland.

 

[heitclone]

Screw that. You pick ONE of the AZ schools and nab Utah, Wash, AND Colo.

I just like ASU more for football and Arizona has a serviceable FB program and one of the top bball brands in the country, the bball program is the tiebreaker for two pretty meh football programs.

 

[heitclone]

While it makes sense on the surface, what do Cal and Stanford see as alternatives that measure up academically? If 4 or more schools leave the Pac, seems like Stanford and Cal would end up in the MWC if they don't come to the B12. MWC isn't exactly an academic powerhouse either.

Stanford could still squeeze into the big 10, Notre Dame could tip the scales for them. Cal will go indy or drop FB before joining the MWC. They think they're too good for big 12 academics, they aren't playing in a conference with Boise St.

 

[cyatheart]

I only saw 1 post that said that. At least on the 247 board that has barely any activity beyond a few people. One guy thinks what you posted, One thinks we are all fly over schools and they should stay out west, and the rest have basically said they should join the Big 12.



They have a few delusional fans out there, but in reality and from the video posted, just overall very few fans.

Which is the problem with all these pac schools, very few fans.