Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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I can't wait for that first BYU-Northwestern rivalry game. Going to hit like crack.
Seems like the end goal wasn’t to have a bill that passes
Even with upward pressure on tv rights from the sell side leverage (similar to professional leagues), the 7x10 setup is unlikely to make more for elite schools.
Because it’s not as profitable for any network.
The scheduling constraints from 7x10 reduce the big brand vs big brand matchups that yield premium ratings.
And it makes the sport more regional with worse product identification. CFP expansion would help offset to a degree, but it leads to more apathy for out of region games. The west coast schools are inherently worth less, for example.
If greater pooling is to happen, the elite schools need to benefit. It’s much more feasible and palatable to do this by luring them with money, than forcing with legislation.
Campbell and PE should exploit the fact the P2 are pooling, just inefficiently & with subsidies that tax elite schools. Campbell should be using his money to team with investors to form a best of the rest with unequal revenue sharing that pays top brands more than P2, with no salary cap. Offer an A&M, NU, USC type more than top of P2, plus ND on a better deal than ACC
So what”s your problem with Cruz-Cantwell? I know why Fat Boy Fluguar and his lemmings don’t like it.
Since the SEC and B10 are now both grossly oversized, the intended brand consolidation has not really yielded that big of an increase in premium conference matchups. CBS and NBC can tell you that with their screw jobs of sublicense deals with Fox/B10.
For example, look at Penn State this upcoming season. They only got two premium conference games vs Michigan and USC, maybe a third if you stretch it to Washington. They have no premium non conference games (laughingly Temple, Buffalo and Marshall). In a 10 team legacy B10, they would annually have Ohio St, Michigan and Indiana along with any other upstart B10 team. Same deal exists across other programs in the SEC and B10. The premium game increase has not been that significant.
7x10 with strategic non conference game and weekly scheduling by a centralized body would, at a minimum, yield the same number of premium games plus greatly decrease the odds of dreaded rematches in a 16 team CFP. Plus, you would actually crown a true conference champ with 7x10 as the absurdity of oversized conference and elimination of CCGs would eliminate determining conference champs. And you would avoid the current BS of having a USC-Rutgers game played in LA at 10:30 ET and instead have a USC-Cal game at the same time with far more eyeballs and regional interest.
And stating the elite schools would not make more money with 7x10 and pooling is BS. Multiple studies and common sense (see NFL and NBA) indicate the likes of Ohio State would at least double their existing media revenues and they would still maintain a significant revenue advantage if a portion of the entire media pie (e.g 30%) was allocated unevenly based on TV ratings including CFP games.
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That it won’t pass
None of those studies had 7x10 setup with conventional conference schedules. The NFL doesn’t have that, and they’re tv valuations not as dependent on big brand matchups
Pooling can increase sell side leverage, and hence represent a way elites can make more. But a 7x10 isn’t the structure
This is really about facilitating the P2 to stop subsidizing. Keeping up with elites isn’t happening. Basically equal revenue across sport like in P5 era isn’t happening. It’s about getting the Minnesota and Purdue to be around M2
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So what should change to make Cruz-Cantwell pass?
The bill has got to pass at some point solely for the anti-trust exemption and to a lesser extent for House codifcation. The NCAA (or even the SEC in a breakaway scenario) cannot enforce its own transfer and eligibility rules without the exemption. The other stuff in the bill was primarily to protect the ACC, B12 and G5 from continuing to get effed by the actions of ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10.
And It is a no brainer that 7x10 would optimize revenues by spreading out tentpole programs amongst the 7 conferences and enhance conference by conference bidding for new entrants beyond Fox and ESPN (i.e. each bidder would get premium brands plus a portion of the CFP).
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Several of the recent articles I’ve read about the SEC breakaway say that the SEC doesn’t think they will need an anti-trust exemption if they break away because they will only be making rules for 16 schools and if any athletes don’t like it they can go play for other conferences.
It sounds like they also expect to collectively bargain with the athletes once they break away, which should help protect them from some of the lawsuits that have been a problem recently.
As always, you use very selective data in an attempt to back up a very poor take. The following games by week in the B10 will outdraw just about every game from the B12 or ACC. I'm not going to do the SEC, but it would be similar. So Fox/ESPN/other tv partners have 2-4 big brand matchups to select from every week. The legacy conferences would have never had anywhere close to this inventory:
9/26:
Oregon-USC
Illinois-Ohio State
Wisconsin-Penn State
Iowa-Michigan
10/3:
Ohio State-Iowa
Washington-USC
10/10:
Iowa-Washington
Indiana-Nebraska
UCLA-Oregon
USC-Penn State
10/17:
Ohio State-Indiana
Penn State-Michigan
Nebraska-Oregon
Wisconsin-UCLA
10/24:
Oregon-Illinois
Indiana-Michigan
USC-Wisconsin
10/31:
Washington-Nebraska
OSU-USC
Wisconsin-Iowa
11/7:
Nebraska-Illinois
Michigan State-Michigan
Oregon-Ohio State
Penn State-Washington
11/14:
Illinois-UCLA
USC-Indiana
Michigan-Oregon
11/21:
UCLA-Michigan
Iowa-Illinois
Ohio State-Nebraska
Indiana-Washington
11/28:
Washington-Oregon
USC-UCLA
Michigan-Ohio State
Nebraska-Iowa
To say the number of premium games have not increased significantly is predictably ignorant on your part.
Maybe a CBA completely protects them without an exemption but they are still going to face multiple other Fed, legal and political issues in a breakaway.
Your analysis is confined to the existing B10/Fox arrangement.
If you spread out those brands separately out to the legacy PAC. legacy B10 and a reconfigured B12 (that would include Nebraska) each with a round robin scheduling format, you would still end up with the same or nearly the same number of premium matchups on a weekly basis, especially with strategic non con scheduling in play.
You need to learn how to use the reply function.
7x10 would primarily be Legacy with regional tweaks as required.
Here's the optimal 7x10 configuration as proposed by the Athletic with one change I made (keeping UCF in the Big East):
Big East: Miami FL, UCF, VA Tech, WV, Louisville, Cincy, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, BC
ACC: Maryland, Virginia, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, Clemson, South Carolina, GT, FSU
SEC: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, Bama, Auburn, UK, Tennessee, Vandy, UGA, Florida
B10: PSU, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota
SWC: Arkansas, OU, OK State, SMU, BU, TCU, Houston, Texas, TX A&M, TT
B12: UU, BYU, CU, Colorado ST (or Boise St). KSU, KU, NU, Mizzou, ISU, Northwestern
PAC: Washington, Wazzu, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, Arizona, AZ State
Notre Dame and anyone else who wants in this Division are indys.
7 conference champs and top seeded at=large host 1st round CFP games in 16 team format. Teams are re-seeded after 1st round for quarterfinals at bowl venues the 3rd weekend in December. Semis are on NYD with championship game 7-10 days later.
G5 has separate 8 team playoff with their championship game in the first window on NYD.
I would be fine with that break up, but you have to come up with a way to even out the divisions, you are going to end up with a few B10 West type divisions just gone purely on region and former conferences.
7x10 is not going to happen. Neither is the B10 and SEC giving up a dime. B10 would play ball before the SEC and even that is a pipe dream.
This is Utah's attitude right now. They are taking that PE deal in a desperation move to do well in football for a "Hey look at me!" Big 10 invite. They'll sell their grandma to get out of the Big 12.
B10 and SEC wouldn't give up a dime with 7x10. They would double or triple the dimes they bring in and still maintain significant revenue advantages.
Now who would give up a ton of dimes is ESPN and Fox and they likely lose premium inventory in the process they can no longer afford via pooling. And based on the actions of the B10 and SEC, they are obvious puppets of Fox and ESPN.
this is like saying the P2 won’t happen because the Big 12 and PAC won’t give up a dime
Schools are making the decisions.
I don’t think 7x10 will happen, but any changes to pooling (realignment) will be based on what the big brands of P2 want. It’s not too different OUT getting a better offer from a different pooling of rights (SEC) than its old pooling of right (Big 12)
That won’t happen by legislation. More palatable is some investor (like a new media company) offers elites more money. The P2 can respond with unequal revenue sharing, which is about as good of outcome for those outside the P2
Of course some conferences are going to stronger most years but those conferences would get 3 to 4 total bids (and more TV revenues) while the B10W type conference would only get the one auto bid.
You have yet to realize that come the next media deal that the P2 will already be doubling their media deals. Are you suggesting that every big ten and sec school would quadruple their current media deals? Because I haven’t seen that anywhere
