Good on you for asking for a timeline, otherwise it’s just gonna be like the super league and you will get a vague “oh it’s gonna happen” for the next decade +
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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You didn't answer my question. When will this happen?
Since ESPN (SEC) & FOX/NBC/CBS (Big10) have existing media rights contracts that run into 2030's- nothing is changing soon.
Hold on, you really believe this don't you?
Well yeah,why would legacy SEC and B10 Presidents pass up doubling/tripling their media revenues, maintain revenue advantages, restore rational conference footprints, codify House and get an anti-trust exemption that would enable enforcement of sensible transfer rules, etc. They all go hand in hand within a modified SCORE Act.
It’s time for those Presidents to tell Sankey/ESPN and Pettiti/Fox to go eff themselves. And if they don’t, the Feds will.
I characterize there is a lot of talk & speculative discussion in motion now. Wheels are stuck in the mud.
The reason I point out length of existing contracts is a lot can happen in 5 years. The media rights landscape could be very different. And the evolving professionalism of college sports will continue to evolve.
So all this talk about SCORE, super league and media rights fees could look far different.
Alreay posted the shift will occur on or around 2030-31 when most of the conference and CFP contracts expire.
Because if there was any decent chance they could "double/triple their media revenues" they'd already be doing it.
I don't believe that'd be the payout for a moment. And without that carrot to dangle, the whole idea is completely DOA.
Look, I want it to be true too. I long for regional conferences and competitive balance. But I just simply cannot see how spreading the wealth equally amongst 70 teams could increase the current top dogs' paychecks two-fold. The product honest to God isn't worth that and everyone knows it.
But I continue to applaud your staunch optimism in the face of literally every bit of reality.
Live sports rights will continue to increase in value, especially CFB which is horribly undervalued due to ESPN and Fox control. And that is why there has been significant PE interest because they recognize the billions being left on the table by the existing bifurcation of CFB media rights deals.
Live sports WILL increase in value, they have increased consistently over the last 30 years. Both Big 10 & SEC's new deals increased at least two-fold. Don't you think FOX maximized it's deals to sub-license inventory to NBC & CBS? Both have independently bid on CFB media rights previously- Notre Dame & SEC.
You act like ESPN got a sweetheart deal in their SEC rights fees. Compare what ESPN paid for the 2:30 SEC game slot vs. what CBS paid- ESPN stepped up.
Nobody forced the Big12 to stick with ESPN/FOX back in 2023. If a streamer or other media company would have been willing to pay more, I'm sure Yormark would have moved on from ESPN/FOX.
PE might smell blood in the water and see a value deal vs. some huge upside. They might also see a future when schools sell their teams to PE. Just like PE owning NFL/NBA/MLB teams.
Got it. So the B1G's current media deal and the SEC's current deal are the last ones those conferences will ever see as the B1G and SEC. And in 2032 there will not be a B1G or SEC or Big 12 but instead will be 7 new conferences of only 10 programs each. Yes?
There's nothing presidents and chancellors want more than to be forever be the 'group that killed the Big Ten'. Definitely the legacy they want to leave.
If this is all happening in 5 years, why are schools scheduling games beyond that time frame? The 7x10 model would also have to have centralized scheduling. Why are they wasting their time discussing contract language?
If this is all happening in 5 years, why are schools scheduling games beyond that time frame? The 7x10 model would also have to have centralized scheduling. Why are they wasting their time discussing contract language?
There have been multiple valuations done that conclude that existing bifurcation of CFB media rights deals are leaving billions of dollars on the table. Pooled rights would at least double revenues for all of FBS like it does for the NBA and NFL if properly done with 7x10 realignment.
And I’ve seen nothing that disputes that
It has been made very clear that the B10 and SEC would be downsized to their legacy ten members and retain their B10 and SEC brands. I am sure the likes of Ohio State and Bama will be happy with that and rid themselves of Rutgers, Mizzou, etc. while doubling their media revenues.
Because the U presidents are an arrogant, conceited bunch who believe they are better than the others and they deserve more. They would prefer their ADs have a huge advantage over those interior U’s than to make more of its equal.
LOL, you way underestimate our fan base, there have been many yrs we've sucked at FB, fan base is constant. If the team is winning even more show up, not being in the B1G SEC super pac isn't the end of ISU sports, would the money be nice? Sure, but necessary for ISU survival nope.
Who are doing these studies? People who want the Super League.
College football and NFL are two different animals. Individual game viewership is far different. Networks pay increased rights for inventory that draws more eyeballs. That's why Super Bowl ads are so expensive. Look at CFB game viewership- the top games are typically in the 5-10M views range. And maybe 10-15 games each week have over 1M views.
Your bi-fuc*ed media rights concept is fictitious. Currently ESPN, FOX, CBS, NBC, TNT and CW all pay media rights fees to televise games.
ESPN has been willing to pay more because their ENTIRE business model is about televising live sports. They don't win media rights contracts, they're televising Pro Pickleball.
Since this board is a Big12 board, obviously we would support any model that can keep Iowa State and the Big12 viable. The biggest issue is all the money is in the BIG and SEC. In no way will any BIG/SEC commish, President, coach, fan ever vote for any model that would dilute their conference/team. If I was a fan of one of those schools, I'd be saying "too bad so sad" too.
As far as 7, 10 team conferences I doubt anything like that ever happens. People bring up rivalries, there are only a handful out there worth a damn anyway. The fan is left out of all of this. I'd love to have all teams within driving distance but were weged between multiple conferences.
One thing is apparent, nobody likes what we have now. Even the BIG/SEC coaches don't like the distance and and lack of guardrails to know what is right and what's not.
And yes if there is a major shift in the football landscape, I fear ISU will be outside looking in or faced with a financial decision that will eliminate football as we know it. Which is what all to the last 100 posts are about.
As far as 7, 10 team conferences I doubt anything like that ever happens. People bring up rivalries, there are only a handful out there worth a damn anyway. The fan is left out of all of this. I'd love to have all teams within driving distance but were weged between multiple conferences.
One thing is apparent, nobody likes what we have now. Even the BIG/SEC coaches don't like the distance and and lack of guardrails to know what is right and what's not.
And yes if there is a major shift in the football landscape, I fear ISU will be outside looking in or faced with a financial decision that will eliminate football as we know it. Which is what all to the last 100 posts are about.
