Baylor, Kansas and West Virginia will all be #1 or #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tourney Path
- Thread starter werdnamanhill
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Baylor, Kansas and West Virginia will all be #1 or #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Haha! That's a pretty accurate post, but you get out of hear with your realism! We can dream can't we!? ;-)
Saturday was a good start and maybe my view is colored because I didn't see either the KU or FAMU games, but there's still a chance (albeit very slim from a realistic point of view...)
It was definitely nice to grab that win on Saturday and win it convincingly, but the thing keeping me from getting very optimistic is how wildly inconsistent Prohms teams are. Our last place finish 2 years ago included beating #8 Tech by 18 and beating #15 WVU by 16. Those ended up being 2 of our only 4 wins and in the end those huge wins got us last place by 4 games. Luckily for us, the Big 12 stinks so I don't see last place, but I definitely expect some real head scratching losses to come in our future this year yet.
ISU Confrence schedule is Front Heavy.
1st Half: Find a way to 3-6
2nd Half: Could go 6-3
9-9, +1 in KC
ISU Dancing.
1st Half: Find a way to 3-6
2nd Half: Could go 6-3
9-9, +1 in KC
ISU Dancing.
That 9-9 would have to include at least 3 wins over a combination of Kansas, Baylor and WVU for me to feel good at 9-9. We didn't exactly light the world on fire with non-conference wins.
If we go 9-9, I think we'd have to win @ Auburn, which would give us 17 wins and then I'd think we'd have to win 2 games at the Big 12 tournament. The thing is, if we would end up going 9-9 or 10-8 in the conference and compete or even beat BU, WVU, or KU in the games we play them, I wouldn't be surprised if we'd steal two down in KC. With that conference record and a couple of quality wins, coupled with the fact that we usually play very solid down there, I could see it.
I think people are excited after the OU win not just because of the win but because it seemed like a fundamentally different team schematically and spiritually.
We played small. There was movement on offense. Conditt was the featured big man finally. We mixed and matched different defenses to play to the strength of the personnel current out there, and Jackson finally found his stroke. It was fun.
If we squeaked by, I doubt I feel this way. But we rolled them by 20 at half.
We are excited because it felt like a different team. Will that stick? Even if it sticks, will it be enough -- are we too far behind to salvage a tournament run?
Who knows right now.
But just having those possibilities again is fun.
We played small. There was movement on offense. Conditt was the featured big man finally. We mixed and matched different defenses to play to the strength of the personnel current out there, and Jackson finally found his stroke. It was fun.
If we squeaked by, I doubt I feel this way. But we rolled them by 20 at half.
We are excited because it felt like a different team. Will that stick? Even if it sticks, will it be enough -- are we too far behind to salvage a tournament run?
Who knows right now.
But just having those possibilities again is fun.
I'll take that wager.
Gonzaga is all but guaranteed a #1 seed.
ACC champ is getting a 1 or 2
SEC champ (Auburn or Kentucky) is getting a 1 or 2.
Butler and SDSU have relatively easy schedules.
Big 10 champ is likely taking one of these.
The Big 12, especially in a down year, is not getting 3 of the 8 slots here.
Yeah I'd bet that KU or BU gets a 1, the other gets a 2 or a 3, and then WVU gets a 3 or a 4. I would bet WVU dips a bit in production as the conference season continues.
Sounds good. I will take the wager that West Virginia stays in the Top 25 (6 Seed) which was your original post and what I responded to. If WVU is a #7 seed or worse then I pay you $50 if Baylor, KU and WVU are all #2 seed or better than you pay me $50. In between is a wash. Good?
Vandy in 2017 is only 18-15 team to get an at-large. (That includes wins in the conference tournament). Also had I think the top non-conference SOS and was something like 7-10 away from home. Not sure about bad losses (had some "dud" losses for sure, but recalling that only in the general sense).
Past two seasons, Alabama and Florida each finished 19-15 and got a bid.
(Apparently SEC teams have figured out a system to get in with 15 losses LOL)
TeamRankings gives us a 31% chance to make it right now.
2% winning the Big 12 tournament and 29% at-large from the bubble.
I thought this was helpful, too --
Man, having TCU and FAMU back right now would be really helpful.
It looks like the magic number is 18. We are 8-7.
10-8 and one W in KC?
Man, having TCU and FAMU back right now would be really helpful.
It looks like the magic number is 18. We are 8-7.
10-8 and one W in KC?
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I honestly don't know what I'd rather have.. 14-15 wins at the end basically knowing those two wins wouldn't have guaranteed a berth, or getting to 16-17 wins, not getting in and those two games being the reason why we missed the tournament.
Look at it this way --
There are likely to be at least a handful (if not more) games that come down to the last possession in the Big 12. Some of those will go our way and other teams will be like, "If only we won that Iowa State game," and some of them are going to come out like the FAMU debacle and the nut shot at the end of regulation against TCU.
Move those close wins/losses between the columns a little and, for any decent season, you can probably construct yourself a narrative of being "this close."
I do agree with you on FAMU and TCU, though. Those two are going to be hard to forget if it comes down to that. Our maximum win expectations --
FAMU = 97.8% (at the tip-off, unfortunately)
TCU = 93.9% (right before the banked in the three-pointer)
They even had around an 80% win expectation when up one late against FAMU. They needed one more stop against that and, well, we know what happened.
Those are two that were about as close to the win column as they get.
Completely agree. Being 10-5 right now would feel a hell of a lot better than being 8-7. Have to play the cards you're dealt though.
We are #42 in line (aw that sucks) for the tournament right now on BT.
Flipping the FAMU and TCU games to wins --
We increase to #18 in line.
It would not solve the problem, but it would help a lot.
