Definitely an 8 Seed or Lower Now

[cyclones500]

Haven't read all the responses in this thread. Reposting what I wrote from "refocus" topic. ... (I may reassess some things based on the talk within this one)

I'm still pegging ISU @7 line, but my confidence has dropped from 50/50 to about 30/70.

I looked at it Thursday night, and unless the committee follows prominent bracketing projections with so many non-big 6 teams in the 5-7 seed range, I didn't see a large number of teams in the majors that seem rock-solid, once you get below 4 or 5 seed.

Based on general tournament seeding patterns I've noticed over the years, the difference between ISU actually getting a 5 and landing at 8/9 wasn't (maybe "isn't") very much. I won't elaborate about the details (for a change!)

At least getting a shot at Missouri might have meant a significant swing.

 

[el tornado]

Why? Do you really think playing a 2 seed is that much different than a 1? Give me the best matchup in the 1st round and take our chances at knocking off one of the best teams in the country.

It's better to be a 10 seed than an 8/9... this year is no exception.
Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, and North Carolina will be 1 seeds. We have a much better chance against the likely 2 seeds Duke, Ohio State, Michigan State, Missouri etc

Tonight we looked like a 15 seed. Ugh

 

[Goothrey]

I'm praying that it is not the 8 or 9 seed.

 

[cyclones500]

I'm almost certain it will be an 8/9. The committee seems to like to put dangerous but inconsistent teams there. Almost like a penalty for not taking care of business completely. Either way, short of a Big 12 tournament run, we were going to play a reasonably decent team with some flaws in the first round, and a really good team in the second.

Spot-on, since we're almost certain to be in 7-8-9-10.

I tried to rep you, but I used my Rep-Juice already. :sad:

 

[cyclones500]

The intent was to emphasize the difference between facing #1 seed vs. #2.

#1 seeds have never lost 1st round
#2 seeds have lost 4x to #15 seeds.

From "Walt's Tourney Stats", the number of times each seed has made it to the sweet 16 (total 76 opportunities). Not sure of accuracy and only includes 1985 (beginning of 64 team field) through 2003...

Seed #times %

1 66 86.8
2 49 64.5
3 35 46.1
4 34 44.7
5 26 34.2
6 29 38.2
7 12 15.8
8 8 10.5
9 2 2.6
10 15 19.7
11 10 13.2
12 13 17.1
13 3 3.9
14 2 2.6
15 0 0
16 0 0

Seeds #10,11 & 12 have made the sweet 16 as often or more often than the 8 & 9 seeds combined because they do not face #1 in 2nd round.

Interestingly, even though the #8 seed has made the sweet 16 4x as often as the #9 seed, the #9 seed has a winning record vs #8 (57-51 per Wikipedia).

Good work. I was trying to find similar stats a couple weeks ago, but failed. I find it every season, then forget about it when April comes.

I also think 10-over-2 is more common than 7-over-2, for what it's worth.

No matter what, tournament performance will come down to matchups, how those two teams play on a given day, and a little luck.

This team is in that gray area ... could maneuver its way to the Sweet 16, or could be one-and-done.

At least we're back in it, and can agonize about the chances!:spinny:

 

[IdahoCyclone]

I actually would prefer seeing us at a 10 opposed to a 8 or 9. As much fun as it would be to watch us play a 1 seed if we won the first game, the outlook for advancing deep in the tournament wouldn’t look to bright.

 

[cyclones500]

It's better to be a 10 seed than an 8/9... this year is no exception.
Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, and North Carolina will be 1 seeds. We have a much better chance against the likely 2 seeds Duke, Ohio State, Michigan State, Missouri etc

Tonight we looked like a 15 seed. Ugh

General point is probably correct, between 1 & 2 seeds IF Iowa State wins in the first round. We tend to forget about that ... much like "after we beat Texas, I think we can defeat Missouri."

Speaking of Missouri — ISU can't play Missouri as 2-7/2-10. Nitpicking, sorry.

 

[leroycyclone]

As long as we are in the tournament, I will be happy. I do "hope" though we aren't an 8/9 but if we are..I'm not going to complain about it.

Same thoughts here.

Read last night on espn or similar that the Big 12 is the 2nd most difficult conference. Tied for 3rd in that league behind a one and a two seed means ISU is higher than an 8 or 9.

BU will be third highest seed. 3 seed.

UT will be the lowest seeded Big 12 team. 8-9 seed.

The big question is whether ISU is above or below KSU.

I say above.

ISU will be a 4-6 seed.

KSU will be a 4-6 seed also.

 

[erikbj]

ISU will be somewhere between a 7-10 seed. They had a chance to improve and couldn't hold onto a 9 point 2nd half lead. Lets just hope they don't have Kentucky or Syracuse as a 2nd round matchup, however if they do - NO ONE TO BLAME EXCEPT THEMSELVES.

But, I don't expect this team to come out flat next week - this will be the wake up call. Won't be shocked if ISU is in the sweet 16, even if they have to knock off a #1 seed to get there.