Controlling pace and ISU wins when its defense "overperforms"

[Malone]

Great write-up and much appreciated. To me, it boils down to this:

If ISU’s defense performs even average on defense (1 point per possession) it has won all games this season because it’s offense has been that good. In only 2 games vs. Texas A&M and Oklahoma (B12 tourney) has ISU defense “overperformed” while still resulting in a loss.

 

[CycloneBBFan]

This is the NCAA. Past performance does not guarantee future success. Anything goes. There are no rules....just ask Michigan State, Maryland, and Duke

 

[wgleason]

We win if Matt Thomas scores more than 15. It's a fact man, stats don't lie.

That's right, 60% of the time it happens every time.
And Matt scores 18 for the win.

 

[jcyclonee]

The ladies all tell me I perform just right.







Maybe.

 

[EarthIsMan]

This is the NCAA. Past performance does not guarantee future success. Anything goes. There are no rules....just ask Michigan State, Maryland, and Duke

Yep.

Disclaimer 2: correlations are not causations. They simply describe events that have occurred, but should not be used to predict future outcomes.

 

[cyclones500]

I was told there would be no math...

 

[EarthIsMan]

ISU will win if 4 of any 7 happen:

1. ISU holds Virginia below 1.05 points per possession
2. there is no foul trouble for ISU that dictates amount of minutes played by any starters
3. ISU has less than 10 turnovers
4. ISU prevents Virginia from getting 10 or more offensive rebounds
5. shoots better than 38% from 3
6. shoots more free throws than Virginia
7. If Nader, Thomas, and Deonte have more than 9 points

Just to follow up (aka the post-mortem):
2 of 7 happened (#4 and #5). Iowa State could have possibly won if 3 of 7 happened, but if any 4 of 7 would have made a win highly probable.

Pace:
The game last night was the highest possession game Virginia played all year (69). Notably, an ISU "feast or famine" full-court press in the 2nd half likely inflated the # of possessions in the game. Still I would argue a lower possession may have resulted in less foul trouble for ISU too. Virginia, as expected, was terrific in preventing transition offense. But that did not kill Iowa State. What did was Virginia getting both offensive rebounds while also preventing transition offense. Virginia scored on most offensive rebounds (6/7 ORs = 12 pts). That is very difficult to do. I thought ISU needed to get some ORs, but that did not happen either. Virginia was excellent on defensive on rebounds as they have been all year.

Defense relative to opponent:
Relative to Virginia's season averages, ISU "overperformed" on offense with 1.03 points per possession (Virginia held opponents to 0.92 point per possession over the course of the season). ISU's defense on the other hand "underperformed" while allowing Virginia to score 1.22 points per possession (ISU's season defensive points per possession was 100.4).

This was a mercurial season for sure, but highly enjoyable. Given the needed improvements on program culture (namely, practice energy & defense) and personnel issues (injuries, McKay,etc.) I don't know if there are many coaches who could have managed this season better than Prohm....and that includes Hoiberg. Nonetheless already intrigued about what the offseason and 2016-17 will bring.

 

[Kurttr]

Your points were borne out too well - or, should I say too poorly....Thanks for the analysis.

I'm with you - don't see how Prohm could have done better with what he faced this year. I look forward to getting more strength and athleticism - and D/rebounding. Like the recruiting class coming in - for HSers, Long & Young are built very well.