Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

cyfan92

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I really like the competitive balance of our new conference.

But #1 priority needs to be getting into the B1G.. $1.1B for a 16 team B1G is $68.75M/year. Even at a 75% payout. We would be nearly $11M greater than the 2021 Big 12 payout. That's near a 50% down payment on the Hilton renovation before fundraising and bond issuance.
 

Gonzo

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I disagree strongly with this. The big 12 is in the third best position for media rights deals due to the simple fact that they are the third best for tv ratings. Now if media execs think those numbers will crater after OUT leaves that's one thing but I dont think they will.

The big ten will not be signing with ESPN and the hang-ups with NBC/CBS are with putting games on Peacock/paramount respectively. With ESPN absorbing the SEC in a few years CBS will need some college football and might be willing to overpay the big12 as they have better ratings then the PAC and the ACC rights deal has a decade left on it.

I would be hoping that the USC revival doesn't happen otherwise that could make the Pac more enticing but still the Big 12 will be in a strong position.

Define "crater". From what I read OuT accounted for 50% of the Big 12's TV value. OuT averaged 3 million viewers/game the past two seasons, the rest of the Big 12 averaged <1 million. Are you saying this is because OuT got all/most of the conference's prime TV slots, and with them gone those slots will go to remaining Big 12 programs and will still draw hefty viewership?
 

FriendlySpartan

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I really like the competitive balance of our new conference.

But #1 priority needs to be getting into the B1G.. $1.1B for a 16 team B1G is $68.75M/year. Even at a 75% payout. We would be nearly $11M greater than the 2021 Big 12 payout. That's near a 50% down payment on the Hilton renovation before fundraising and bond issuance.
As someone who watches a lot of EPL I hate the **** with a passion and really hope a NBC deal would keep games off the streaming platform. I think the big ten's deal will possibly raise all ships as it could help the Big12 and Pac get higher deals. At this point in time the Big ten is not considering expanding and ISU to the BIG is sadly not happening.
 

cykadelic2

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I don't entirely disagree with that but I think a partnership with the Pac isn't happening at this point.
The B10's decision to go with 9 conference games and essentially torpedo the grand non con scheduling plans of the Alliance has shot the wheels off of the Pac12's initial negotiating strategy which was horribly flawed to begin with.

Kliavkoff had recently publicly indicated that they were going to enter negotiations with a strategy of 8 conference games, 2 annual non con homes & homes with the B10 and ACC, PACN retaining some inventory and no expansion. That strategy was seriously effed to begin with and it has already been blown up with the B10 sticking to 9 conference games. The P12 can no longer have FB inventory on PACN and non games with the ACC were never going to stimulate payouts. They have to expand into the Central time zone to increase their exposure and payouts and the only way to do that is with expansion of some or all of the R8 (minus WV).
 

FriendlySpartan

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Define "crater". From what I read OuT accounted for 50% of the Big 12's TV value. OuT averaged 3 million viewers/game the past two seasons, the rest of the Big 12 averaged <1 million. Are you saying this is because OuT got all/most of the conference's prime TV slots, and with them gone those slots will go to remaining Big 12 programs and will still draw hefty viewership?
The big 12 (minus OUT) still had 3 top 30 teams in terms of ratings last season (#22, 27, 30) The PAC and ACC only had 2 teams each and the rest are from the BIG/SEC. While those numbers aren't great whoever loses out on getting the big ten deal might still be interested in keep CBB on their platform and the Big12 is the next best option. Only problem is if the media execs have an issue with perception but if your leadership is doing their job the math should help with negotiations.
 

Gonzo

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The big 12 (minus OUT) still had 3 top 30 teams in terms of ratings last season (#22, 27, 30) The PAC and ACC only had 2 teams each and the rest are from the BIG/SEC. While those numbers aren't great whoever loses out on getting the big ten deal might still be interested in keep CBB on their platform and the Big12 is the next best option. Only problem is if the media execs have an issue with perception but if your leadership is doing their job the math should help with negotiations.

Yeah but didn't those 3 top-30 teams have OU and UT on their schedule? Wouldn't that play a big part in those ratings? Will they still be there when you replace OuT with Cincy, Houston, etc.? Maybe I'm off, I don't know a ton about this.
 

FriendlySpartan

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The B10's decision to go with 9 conference games and essentially torpedo the grand non con scheduling plans of the Alliance has shot the wheels off of the Pac12's initial negotiating strategy which was horribly flawed to begin with.

Kliavkoff had recently publicly indicated that they were going to enter negotiations with a strategy of 8 conference games, 2 annual non con homes & homes with the B10 and ACC, PACN retaining some inventory and no expansion. That strategy was seriously effed to begin with and it has already been blown up with the B10 sticking to 9 conference games. The P12 can no longer have FB inventory on PACN and non games with the ACC were never going to stimulate payouts. They have to expand into the Central time zone to increase their exposure and payouts and the only way to do that is with expansion of some or all of the R8 (minus WV).
No decision has been made on the 8/9 games front as of yet. Largely depends on how media rights talks go. I also don't see the big12 just abandoning their new members and WVU to merge with the PAC. I also don't think that merging with the PAC gets you more money per school then just sticking with the new Big12.
 

cykadelic2

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As someone who watches a lot of EPL I hate the **** with a passion and really hope a NBC deal would keep games off the streaming platform. I think the big ten's deal will possibly raise all ships as it could help the Big12 and Pac get higher deals. At this point in time the Big ten is not considering expanding and ISU to the BIG is sadly not happening.
The decision to go with 9 conference games, the likelihood of multiple new bidders besides ESPN/Fox and those new bidders wanting as much inventory as possible increases the odds of B10 expansion with their new deals.

Scheduling of 9 conference games is facilitated by 16 teams with 4x4 scheduling pods (3 annual games in your pod with 2 games from each of the other 3 pods that rotate where every team has a home and home with every other team within a 4 year window). Scheduling 9 games with 14 schools will continue to be a royal clustereff.
 

FriendlySpartan

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Yeah but didn't those 3 top-30 teams have OU and UT on their schedule? Wouldn't that play a big part in those ratings? Will they still be there when you replace OuT with Cincy, Houston, etc.? Maybe I'm off, I don't know a ton about this.
Its certainly a possibility but because texas wasn't ranked they didn't at a ton to the ratings, yes their would be a dropoff but would still put you inline with the PAC and ACC with the advantage that you get to negotiate first. Not having a headliner will probably hurt but networks really want CFB content.
 

FriendlySpartan

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The decision to go with 9 conference games, the likelihood of multiple new bidders besides ESPN/Fox and those new bidders wanting as much inventory as possible increases the odds of B10 expansion with their new deals.

Scheduling of 9 conference games is facilitated by 16 teams with 4x4 scheduling pods (3 annual games in your pod with 2 games from each of the other 3 pods that rotate where every team has a home and home with every other team within a 4 year window). Scheduling 9 games with 14 schools will continue to be a royal clustereff.
It really does not increase expansion possibilities. The big ten is very happy where they are and if they wanted another school that wasn't in the SEC they would have them right now. The ACC schools have been a dream of the big ten for awhile but their GOR is preventing that discussion for another decade. Adding more schools (especially if they bring nothing to the table for football) does not increase media deals. With the numbers being talked about at 80-90mil per school there is no point to expand and no desire.
 

Gonzo

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Its certainly a possibility but because texas wasn't ranked they didn't at a ton to the ratings, yes their would be a dropoff but would still put you inline with the PAC and ACC with the advantage that you get to negotiate first. Not having a headliner will probably hurt but networks really want CFB content.

Texas averaged the second most viewers in the Big 12 to OU, and was #13 in the NCAA in 2021 averaging 2.26 million viewers per game.
 

cykadelic2

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No decision has been made on the 8/9 games front as of yet. Largely depends on how media rights talks go. I also don't see the big12 just abandoning their new members and WVU to merge with the PAC. I also don't think that merging with the PAC gets you more money per school then just sticking with the new Big12.
WV would never merge or align with PAC. The ACC would gladly add them and likely Cincy in order to open up their existing deal for renegotiation with ESPN.

Also, there is no binding agreement for the R8 to stay in the B12 beyond GOR expiration. They all remain free agents for other conferences to poach and I am sure they are all politicking behind the scenes and exploring all alternatives besides the B12.

And as stated before, the payouts for R8 (minus WV) would be higher in an expanded P12, especially when you consider that P12 bidders would not be subsidizing outlier Eastern time zone schools like UCF, Cincy and WV and a CT commuter school in UH.
 

FriendlySpartan

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Texas averaged the second most viewers in the Big 12 to OU, and was #13 in the NCAA in 2021 averaging 2.26 million viewers per game.
Yep but what i am saying is that while every single game they and OU were in got good ratings there were several Big12 games not involving them that did very well. Losing those two is obv a huge hit to the floor of what the leagues ratings can be but the Big12 had a bunch of well rated games without OUT.
 

cyman05

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The decision to go with 9 conference games, the likelihood of multiple new bidders besides ESPN/Fox and those new bidders wanting as much inventory as possible increases the odds of B10 expansion with their new deals.

Scheduling of 9 conference games is facilitated by 16 teams with 4x4 scheduling pods (3 annual games in your pod with 2 games from each of the other 3 pods that rotate where every team has a home and home with every other team within a 4 year window). Scheduling 9 games with 14 schools will continue to be a royal clustereff.

Sounds to me like the decision has been made to stick at 9. But I think the interesting part is that Gene Smith is alluding to the fact the decision was informally made in the fall. Did they tell the ACC and Pac12 of that or keep it quiet until after January and it was too late for playoff expansion. Timing seeming political to me.

 
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FriendlySpartan

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WV would never merge or align with PAC. The ACC would gladly add them and likely Cincy in order to open up their existing deal for renegotiation with ESPN.

Also, there is no binding agreement for the R8 to stay in the B12 beyond GOR expiration. They all remain free agents for other conferences to poach and I am sure they are all politicking behind the scenes and exploring all alternatives besides the B12.

And as stated before, the payouts for R8 (minus WV) would be higher in an expanded P12, especially when you consider that P12 bidders would not be subsidizing outlier Eastern time zone schools like UCF, Cincy and WV and a CT commuter school in UH.
Fair point on that the payouts could be higher with just the R8, obv dont know for sure but combining those leagues makes for less competition for rights deals so you might be right.

You are very wrong on the ACC taking WVU. WVU has no home available with how horrible their academics are. The BIG is a very arrogant conference but the ACC isn't far behind when it comes to academic standards.
 

cykadelic2

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Fair point on that the payouts could be higher with just the R8, obv dont know for sure but combining those leagues makes for less competition for rights deals so you might be right.

You are very wrong on the ACC taking WVU. WVU has no home available with how horrible their academics are. The BIG is a very arrogant conference but the ACC isn't far behind when it comes to academic standards.
If the ACC took on Louisville, they will crater and add WVU if it stimulates their payouts. Especially in a scenario that involves a B12 settlement with ESPN/SEC/OUT for the early departures of OUT to the SEC. ESPN will pay for WV to join the ACC in order to expedite OUT going to the SEC.
 

cykadelic2

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Sounds to me like the decision has been made to stick at 9. But I think the interesting part is that Gene Smith is alluding to the fact the decision was informally made in the fall. Did they tell the ACC and Pac12 of that or keep it quiet until after January and it was too late for playoff expansion. Timing seeming political to me.
The non con scheduling aspect of the Alliance was always a ruse and the P12 and ACC were well aware of it (and the B12 as well).
 
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FriendlySpartan

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If the ACC took on Louisville, they will crater and add WVU if it stimulates their payouts. Especially in a scenario that involves a B12 settlement with ESPN/SEC/OUT for the early departures of OUT to the SEC. ESPN will pay for WV to join the ACC in order to expedite OUT going to the SEC.
Louisville is still almost 80 spots ahead of WVU but we can agree to disagree on that. I also doubt that ESPN pays a buyout for OUT or that a buyout even happens at all. OUT does not want to move to the SEC with what they have going on right now and its just 2 more seasons isn't it? Or is it 3?
 

Die4Cy

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I disagree strongly with this. The big 12 is in the third best position for media rights deals due to the simple fact that they are the third best for tv ratings. Now if media execs think those numbers will crater after OUT leaves that's one thing but I dont think they will.

I am saying that from a negotiations standpoint, the Big 12 has already agreed to allow tons of their content (including actual premium content like ISU vs Kansas basketball) to be put behind an effective ESPN paywall on ESPN+ for a mere $2 million a year per school, and ceded entire control of what content goes there--it isn't just tier 3 type material. We are the only Power 5 conference to give them that deal, all the others have to varying degrees of success gotten ESPN to allocate their programming to providers to directly put in front of the fans on their tvs.

It is a fact that you can turn on a TV on the west coast and see all kinds of PAC programming. The same is true for the ACC, the B1G, and SEC in their areas. But if you want to see Iowa State wrestling, women's basketball, or nonconference men's basketball, it is different. Now that the Big 12 has accepted that premise, that will probably always be the terms of a deal for us to be on ESPN.
 
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