I agree. The NCAA tourney is the proving ground. From the first day of practice, every team points to one thing: March madness. That's when the light goes on, and there is pressure to perform. If a team gets upset - like ISU against UAB, Mich State against Middle Tennessee, etc. - it means they were overrated in the first place.You'd rather compare the strength at the bottom? People who say "the dance" or bowls don't matter in determining conference strength, generally, are people who lose a lot. If 7 Big12 teams get in "the dance," the outcomes could tell a lot about this league.
Say four are knocked out in the first game. That would suggest to me that the league is overrated. Say 2 make the Final 4, that would suggest just the opposite. But if one makes the finals and the rest sort of fall out along the way, it suggests the conference is nothing beyond average.