A few notes on Tech

khaal53

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 13, 2006
2,954
693
113
42
Just wanted to throw out a few interesting things I found on Texas Tech, primarily with their defense, but I'll start with the offensive note first:

Their offense converts on 50.6% of their third down attempts (17th best in the NCAA), but what is most interesting is that their average third down distance to go is 7.6 yards (that is the 95th most in the country). That conversion rate with that average distance is pretty impressive. Without knowing a whole lot that tells me that they either have an extremely dynamic offense or their level of competition hasn't been the greatest, which leads me to...

I have begun to calculate a "strength of schedule" for each FBS team that basically looks at the opponents that each team has played and how those opponents rank in a given statistical category. This is important because if you look at Tech's defense you'll see that they have the 11th best rush yard per carry defense, 16th best pass yard per attempt defense, and the third best scoring defense by points per possession.

However, based off of the FBS teams they have played so far and their rankings in those categories Texas Tech has had the 2nd easiest schedule against rushing teams, 3rd easiest against passing teams, and the 5th easiest against scoring efficiency.

The one flaw in my SOS calculation is that I don't remove the stats from the head to head game with how opponents have done statistically because I haven't found a great way to do that just yet. So, Tech's defensive performance against their schedule is contributing to those rankings with their opponents and their struggling offenses.
 
Good write up, just trolling twitterverse last night and sounds like Davis Webb will be the starter tomorrow, Mayfield is out obviously and Brewer will be the backup.
 
Nice research. I had never seen those stats.

quick breakdown of our team and prediction:

Note that I'm historically pessimistic about our team, but this years offense is extremely over rated. We have one Big 12 caliber offensive lineman and Kliff knows it. Our scheme is basically haul-*** to the LOS and throw quick passes to our receivers, so our line only has to block for 2 seconds. We have no run game to speak of. Out of the top 25 rushers in the big 12 we have 0. I think it's cause we can't block, but ill let you guys decide.

Defensively, it SEEMS like we have a good thing going. Multiple fronts that suits our 'tweener personnel well. It's basically a base 3-3-5 although our DC calls it a 3-4. Our front 7 is actually competent for once (one of the few things Tubs remedied here), However we have 2 corners that have played every meaningful snap this year. There is nothing behind them and Sam Richardson is the most stable QB in the big 12 outside of Bryce petty. I think this is the best offense that we will have seen to date especially the way y'all have played these last two games.

my prediction is tech 31 Iowa state 30. For the record, I came on here last year and predicted a tech loss so this may bode well for y'all.
 
The one flaw in my SOS calculation is that I don't remove the stats from the head to head game with how opponents have done statistically because I haven't found a great way to do that just yet. So, Tech's defensive performance against their schedule is contributing to those rankings with their opponents and their struggling offenses.

Just calculate the raw stats without the head to head game and then see where that number would put them in the rankings.
 
Give me a minute and I'll give you the rushing/passing/scoring stats for each team on their schedule, since I've already got a spreadsheet made up from the post I did a few days ago.

Edit: I forgot that my numbers do not include games against FCS opponents. So maybe they wouldn't be helpful.
 
Last edited:
[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Offense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Defense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] Passing
[/TD]
[TD] Rushing
[/TD]
[TD] Score
[/TD]
[TD]Passing
[/TD]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]Score[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SMU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]367.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]61.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]27.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]275.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]187.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]48.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TCU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]163.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]88.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]30.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]226.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]138.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]24.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TXST[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]135.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]149.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]343.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]99.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]28.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]224.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]108.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]13.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]233.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]173.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]16.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Yardage/points average for all of their games against FBS opponents that aren't Texas Tech.
 
Now with their games against FCS teams added in

[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Offense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Defense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]Score[/TD]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]Score[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SMU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]354.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]82.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]28.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]261.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]180.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]43.75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TCU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]180.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]108.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]32.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]202.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]155.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]22.75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TXST[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]143.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]172.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]302.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]86.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]21.75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]186.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]165.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]19.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]178.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]188.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]15.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Last edited:
And where their NCAA rank would be if the game against Texas Tech was taken out

[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Offense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Defense[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]Score[/TD]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]Score[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SMU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]122[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TCU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]107[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TXST[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]115[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]66[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Note: I did not adjust the ranking to take into account that the team might be higher ranked without the Tech game, so some of the numbers are off by one
 
Thanks for doing that. I obviously understand how to do that but I haven't because I'm working on computing it for every FBS team so I want opponent rankings in a given area to stay aligned, if that makes sense. I also use rush yards per attempt and pass yards per attempt instead of per game and use points scored per possession instead of per game.

So those results would vary a little bit.
 
Thanks for doing that. I obviously understand how to do that but I haven't because I'm working on computing it for every FBS team so I want opponent rankings in a given area to stay aligned, if that makes sense. I also use rush yards per attempt and pass yards per attempt instead of per game and use points scored per possession instead of per game.

So those results would vary a little bit.

In that case why not just make a copy of your spreadsheet/database and delete out the Tech games from the copy? Just make it look like their opponents had a bye.
 
Good write up, just trolling twitterverse last night and sounds like Davis Webb will be the starter tomorrow, Mayfield is out obviously and Brewer will be the backup.

Do you have a link about Mayfield being out? Not that I doubt it but last I heard KK said he was day to day and most likely a game time decision.
 
Nice research. I had never seen those stats.

quick breakdown of our team and prediction:

Note that I'm historically pessimistic about our team, but this years offense is extremely over rated. We have one Big 12 caliber offensive lineman and Kliff knows it. Our scheme is basically haul-*** to the LOS and throw quick passes to our receivers, so our line only has to block for 2 seconds. We have no run game to speak of. Out of the top 25 rushers in the big 12 we have 0. I think it's cause we can't block, but ill let you guys decide.

Defensively, it SEEMS like we have a good thing going. Multiple fronts that suits our 'tweener personnel well. It's basically a base 3-3-5 although our DC calls it a 3-4. Our front 7 is actually competent for once (one of the few things Tubs remedied here), However we have 2 corners that have played every meaningful snap this year. There is nothing behind them and Sam Richardson is the most stable QB in the big 12 outside of Bryce petty. I think this is the best offense that we will have seen to date especially the way y'all have played these last two games.

my prediction is tech 31 Iowa state 30. For the record, I came on here last year and predicted a tech loss so this may bode well for y'all.

I was half in your first paragraph and thought you were talking about ISU's offense.