2026-2027 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

With the brackets out --

https://www.playersera.com/mens

And a more rational format of two eight-team brackets with everybody guaranteed at least three games and a bonus "Million Dollar Game" between the two bracket winners. I spent a little time last night fiddling with Excel for the first time in months and seeing how helpful Claude could be.

"Marginally" toward the latter question, but what about the former?

All these projections use the current Torvik projections for 2027.

LEFT BRACKET (the one with Iowa St.)



Iowa St. has an comparatively easy draw in the first round. Tennessee and Maryland should be manageable. Avoiding St. John's and Louisville (regardless of Milan possibly ending up there) until later in the tournament certainly helps and gives Iowa St. the third-best odds to win its side of the bracket.

RIGHT BRACKET



An absolute gauntlet with Gonzaga, Michigan, and Alabama in there. Doesn't look like the three Big 12 teams in there (Baylor, TCU, and K-St.) are going to help the conference ratings very much.

MILLION DOLLAR GAME



Iowa St. comes in with a respectable 7.22% chance to win the bonus money with the preseason ratings. Michigan, Gonzaga, and Louisville (and possibly with Milan...) are going to be monsters, though, and are going to be the favorites to win the bonus game and hence the pile of NIL money.

Iowa State opponents by round --



~29% of bumping into Louisville

Iowa St. and K-St. meeting in the grand finals would be hilarious.

 

[NENick]

Interesting new top 25 in the Athletic today. ISU at 23, several spots behind Iowa, among others. Writer includes Mason Williams as a "key returner" and the 3 freshmen all as "unranked transfer."
Details.

 

[NWICY]

Interesting new top 25 in the Athletic today. ISU at 23, several spots behind Iowa, among others. Writer includes Mason Williams as a "key returner" and the 3 freshmen all as "unranked transfer."
Details.

I'd have my doubts about any poll that has ISU below Iowa. They had a good run in March but I think our recruiting has been better and well we've got TJ.

 

[cyclones500]

I don't have a way offhand to quantify this assertion.

But I would bet if you constructed some metric on which programs have most overperformed or underperformed their NCAA tournament seeds over the years, Iowa State would be near the top (and probably Iowa during the Fran years until the recent hot little run two months ago) with underperformance.

Going as far back as the Fred era...

We've seen two #2 seeds not make the Elite Eight.

We saw a #3 seed crash out in the first round.

We've had a bunch of lower seeds duck out in the first weekend.

The only counterexample is the Brockington team (#11 seed to Sweet Sixteen).

We've never had a really good team (#3 or better seed or so) make that deep run to the Final Four or a "meh" team make a deeper run outside of those two magical games in Milwaukee in 2022.

I wish we'd finally have that good-to-great team that overperforms in March finally because when we do look out! It was fun when the mediocre-to-bad 2022 team did it, but I wish we had more.

It would be cool if the under/over for ISU tournament performance was a little more balanced. The examples you mention represent it well, but we can go back even further.

Advanced at least one round beyond seed line expectation:
1986: 7 (reached Sweet 16)
1992: 10 (Round of 32)
1997: 6 (Sweet 16)
2005: 9 (Round of 32)
2013: 10 (Round of 32)
2022: 11 (Sweet 16) - 2 lines (mentioned in your roundup)

Defeated earlier than seed line (number of rounds below in parentheses)
1993: 8 (minus 1 ... R64)
2001: 2 (minus 3 ... R64)
2015: 3 (minus 2 ... R64)
2019: 6 (minus 1 ... R64)
2023: 6 (minus 1 ... R64)
2024: 2 (minus 1 ... Sweet 16)
2025: 3 (minus 1 .... R32)
2026: 2 (minus 1 ... Sweet 16)

Played to seed line:
1985: 13 (R64)
1988: 12 (R64)
1989: 10 (R64)
1995: 7 (R32)
1996: 5 (R32)
2000: 2 (Elite 8)
2012: 8 (R32)
2014: 3 (Sweet 16 .... lost to lower seed (7))
2016: 4 (Sweet 16)
2017: 5 (R32)

The 8v9 cases typically is a toss-up, and 7-10 is nearly that, but I count it either way.

I think I covered all the tournament appearances, if any omissions or errors, please advise.

 

[not-the-manager]

Interesting new top 25 in the Athletic today. ISU at 23, several spots behind Iowa, among others. Writer includes Mason Williams as a "key returner" and the 3 freshmen all as "unranked transfer."
Details.

I'd have my doubts about any poll that has ISU below Iowa. They had a good run in March but I think our recruiting has been better and well we've got TJ.

What a joke. Iowa had one NCAA tournament run. They lost their two best players, and now writers expect more out of them than Otzelberger’s five-year and proven system? Among other things, that tells me people are just looking at transfer rankings and not the fact that Otz arguably hasn’t whiffed on a transfer. They haven’t all bloomed into reliable scorers, but many of them were brought in as role players and played their parts. And most of them improved

 

[NorthCyd]

In just the TJ era you would expect at least 1 elite 8 about 80% of the time with the seeds we've had in the last 3 tournaments. Then again, 11 seeds make the sweet 16 about 20% of the time, and he accomplished that in year 1. Given the significant injuries ISU has had in two of the last 3 years It's been a lot of variables that are out of TJs hands. If he keeps us in a position where we are consistently getting 4 seeds or better it's only a matter of time before that magical run happens. Just making the second weekend 3 out of 5 years is incredibly impressive given where the program was when he took over.

 

[CyFanInChiLand]

Seems odd that Iowa is that high. I thought their portal additions were viewed as fairly meh? I also dont believe any of the HS kids were even top 100 players. Just dont get it.

 

[Sigmapolis]

@CyFanInChiLand, Torvik has them down here.



Seems more reasonable.

Iowa St. still at #18 after a few small updates.



Kentucky at #23.

 

[not-the-manager]

Iowa St. still at #18 after a few small updates.

View attachment 171300

Kentucky at #23.

View attachment 171301

kind of tells you everything you need to know. Without the benefit of hindsight, holding out for Momcilovic wasn't worth missing out on two+ transfers

 

[KennyPratt42]

Seems odd that Iowa is that high. I thought their portal additions were viewed as fairly meh? I also dont believe any of the HS kids were even top 100 players. Just dont get it.

Honestly Iowa is really fortunate they made the run they did in the tournament. Lets say hypothetically Florida doesn't blow the lead late in the game they would have ended the season with a single good win (beating a solid Nebraska team at home). 10-10 in conference and 22-13 overall would have been a solid enough first season, but nothing to get too excited about.

Next season there is very little chance based on the roster they are better than they were this last season. Now to be fair, they are going to be young and took the approach of bringing in young transfers, so it was at least partially intentional. But after reality sets in that they aren't magically a top 15 roster, most of their fans will be comfortable that it is a building year. So the run last March bought them time to build and see what happens in year 3 and 4 for McCollum.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Florida completely screwed that game up.

Let Iowa build up two big leads in each half though wore them back down.

Essentially had it won at the end (91.0%, I'm surprised Iowa even at a 9.0% chance at that point).

Screwed up the defense leading to Folgueiras having the open three.

Screwed up their last somewhat desperate possession not even getting a shot off.

I'd love to have a higher seed shoot itself in the foot so many times against us sometime!

 

[Cyhig]

Honestly Iowa is really fortunate they made the run they did in the tournament. Lets say hypothetically Florida doesn't blow the lead late in the game they would have ended the season with a single good win (beating a solid Nebraska team at home). 10-10 in conference and 22-13 overall would have been a solid enough first season, but nothing to get too excited about.

Next season there is very little chance based on the roster they are better than they were this last season. Now to be fair, they are going to be young and took the approach of bringing in young transfers, so it was at least partially intentional. But after reality sets in that they aren't magically a top 15 roster, most of their fans will be comfortable that it is a building year. So the run last March bought them time to build and see what happens in year 3 and 4 for McCollum.

Which is why I don't get why Iowa fans are buying the hype. Sure, it was a great run they had in the tournament. But the analytics show it was possible, but not probable Iowa would reach the E8. People forget they lost to Penn State and Maryland just a couple weeks before the tournament

 

[KennyPratt42]

Which is why I don't get why Iowa fans are buying the hype. Sure, it was a great run they had in the tournament. But the analytics show it was possible, but not probable Iowa would reach the E8. People forget they lost to Penn State and Maryland just a couple weeks before the tournament

Yeah they were a 6 or 7 seed level team last year that had a couple of bad losses which put them on the 8/9 line. Based on their roster I'd expect them to 7 to 10 seed level team this year.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Which is why I don't get why Iowa fans are buying the hype. Sure, it was a great run they had in the tournament. But the analytics show it was possible, but not probable Iowa would reach the E8. People forget they lost to Penn State and Maryland just a couple weeks before the tournament

I agree, but we would be drinking the kool aid if our first year head coach, known for winning at an incredible rate, led us to an Elite 8 and a win over a 1 seed. I do think they're in for a rude awakening, but I also think he's a good coach who will get as much out of the roster as possible.

 

[Cyhig]

I agree, but we would be drinking the kool aid if our first year head coach, known for winning at an incredible rate, led us to an Elite 8 and a win over a 1 seed. I do think they're in for a rude awakening, but I also think he's a good coach who will get as much out of the roster as possible.

Good points. I guess we were the same way to an extent with TJ after his first season, but not to the level it seems many Iowa fans. Rather than turn this into an Iowa thread, I'll just end my comments on this subject by saying if I were Iowa, I would want to see what happens in years 2 and 3 before making judgements about Ben.

 

[SolarGarlic]

It looks like Torvik is projecting a season that I expected last year. I thought we were due for a 4-6 seed, but Jefferson/Momcilovic/Lipsey upped their game and Toure added a key piece. I'm skeptical we can replace those top 3, but I'm done questioning TJ's whole is better than the sum of its parts approach. We can count on an elite defense. We need Batemon to take a big step and/or hit on 3-4 transfers.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It looks like Torvik is projecting a season that I expected last year. I thought we were due for a 4-6 seed, but Jefferson/Momcilovic/Lipsey upped their game and Toure added a key piece. I'm skeptical we can replace those top 3, but I'm done questioning TJ's whole is better than the sum of its parts approach. We can count on an elite defense. We need Batemon to take a big step and/or hit on 3-4 transfers.

The bullish case.

Toure ups his game (especially on offense) and solidifies himself as the PG. Johnson is a high-level backup PG and a total bulldog on defense. With those two together, you don't miss Lipsey too much.

Batemon turns into one of the better two-way SGs in the Big 12. Maybe Wiggins comes in and is good enough to demand some playing time right away as a bench gunner. A lack of scoring punch from the second guard was one of the weaknesses last year, but this area now becomes a strength.

Losing Momcilovic hurts, but we replace him in the aggregate with Batemon, Bond, and Prather. A step down on shooting sure but improved defense and depth from the guards and wings.

J-Jeff is the most irreplaceable, but Singleton provides at least a poor man's version of it and starts to expand his game more and more over the course of his career the same way Jefferson did for SM's and ISU.

Buchanan and Pleta both make incremental steps on consistency. Manning is a huge upgrade from the dearly departed Mulder in terms of providing an emergency or energy bench big man.

That team... could be about as good as the one last year.

 

[nrg4isu]

The bullish case.

Toure ups his game (especially on offense) and solidifies himself as the PG. Johnson is a high-level backup PG and a total bulldog on defense. With those two together, you don't miss Lipsey too much.

Batemon turns into one of the better two-way SGs in the Big 12. Maybe Wiggins comes in and is good enough to demand some playing time right away as a bench gunner. A lack of scoring punch from the second guard was one of the weaknesses last year, but this area now becomes a strength.

Losing Momcilovic hurts, but we replace him in the aggregate with Batemon, Bond, and Prather. A step down on shooting sure but improved defense and depth from the guards and wings.

J-Jeff is the most irreplaceable, but Singleton provides at least a poor man's version of it and starts to expand his game more and more over the course of his career the same way Jefferson did for SM's and ISU.

Buchanan and Pleta both make incremental steps on consistency. Manning is a huge upgrade from the dearly departed Mulder in terms of providing an emergency or energy bench big man.

That team... could be about as good as the one last year.

Agreed on all of this, but if you want MORE then I'd look in the direction of Pleta. I believe he has room for expanding his game more than just incrementally.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Agreed on all of this, but if you want MORE then I'd look in the direction of Pleta. I believe he has room for expanding his game more than just incrementally.

Our best case scenario is for Toure, Batemon, and Pleta to be our best 3 players. I have a feeling it won't quite work out that way, but those three all showed that they could make a jump in year two. If Toure can more consistently look like he did on offense from the Creighton through Purdue game last year he is a first team all Big 12 player. Batemon for a lot of the conference season looked like a very capable Big 12 guard and we all saw the potential for him to take a leap. Pleta was better in the second half of the year than the first and showed some nice stretches. It wouldn't be shocking to see him take a leap in year two into a very solid post presence taking Buchannan's spot as first option center.

 

[alexssdean12]

The bullish case.

Toure ups his game (especially on offense) and solidifies himself as the PG. Johnson is a high-level backup PG and a total bulldog on defense. With those two together, you don't miss Lipsey too much.

Batemon turns into one of the better two-way SGs in the Big 12. Maybe Wiggins comes in and is good enough to demand some playing time right away as a bench gunner. A lack of scoring punch from the second guard was one of the weaknesses last year, but this area now becomes a strength.

Losing Momcilovic hurts, but we replace him in the aggregate with Batemon, Bond, and Prather. A step down on shooting sure but improved defense and depth from the guards and wings.

J-Jeff is the most irreplaceable, but Singleton provides at least a poor man's version of it and starts to expand his game more and more over the course of his career the same way Jefferson did for SM's and ISU.

Buchanan and Pleta both make incremental steps on consistency. Manning is a huge upgrade from the dearly departed Mulder in terms of providing an emergency or energy bench big man.

That team... could be about as good as the one last year.

Is it crazy that I can see Prather competing for PG?? He's got the highest assist to turnover in the nation last year. Toure needs to prove he can be a facilitator before he is for sure slotted as the defacto point guard. Toure will start but could be moved the the two guard spot and let Prather run it.

Losing Milan will hurt I don't think this team will be that bad of a shooting team

Losing:
Milan - 48% 136 makes
Tamin - 31.6% on 42 makes
Jefferson - 34.5% on 38 makes
Heise - 32.2% on 29 makes

245 total makes

Gaining:
Parther - 36.8% on 84 makes
Johnson - 38.3% on 54 makes
Bond - 36.2% on 46 makes

Keeping:
Batemon - 37% on 54 makes
Toure - 31.3% on 26 makes

264 total makes with all the guys coming in having better efficiency numbers than Tamin/Jefferson/Heise. Obviously different competition but 3PP seems to translate if not get better with the better development our league has.