2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

No BYU?

Torvik has them on the #5 line right now pushing for a #4 seed.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if BYU isn't a top 4 seed. In fact, with Kansas having a resurgence, I see 6 Big 12 teams in the top 16 seeds.

6 of the top 18 right now... which could turn into 6/16 if a few games go the "right" way.

The top six need to avoid any further upsets and frankly "sharing the wealth" a little bit between the top few teams might help (e.g., Kansas beating Iowa St., Arizona and Houston not running away with it).

I can't wait for Arizona-BYU tonight. The Marriott Center is going to be wild.

The top of the Big 12 and Big 10 are exceptionally strong this year.
You've got Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State and BYU in the Big 12 and Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska in the Big Ten.

Honestly, this has been one of the most enjoyable seasons of College Basketball that I've witnessed in a long time and it's just getting started.

Losses by the AP top-ten at this point in the year in previous seasons.

2026 = 10
2025 = 24
2024 = 29
2023 = 25
2022 = 21

College basketball is top-heavy to an almost ridiculous degree this season.

Iowa State with two losses would still be in the top-five most seasons.

 

[NYCYFan]

As much as I hate to say it, if they can keep their lottery pick freshman's helicopter parents out of it and can have him available consistently, KU will be in that conversation as well.

I was considering including them but it's all dependent on Peterson and he's been unreliable this season thus far.

 

[NYCYFan]

Torvik has them on the #5 line right now pushing for a #4 seed.

View attachment 166785



6 of the top 18 right now... which could turn into 6/16 if a few games go the "right" way.

The top six need to avoid any further upsets and frankly "sharing the wealth" a little bit between the top few teams might help (e.g., Kansas beating Iowa St., Arizona and Houston not running away with it).





Losses by the AP top-ten at this point in the year in previous seasons.

2026 = 10
2025 = 24
2024 = 29
2023 = 25
2022 = 21

College basketball is top-heavy to an almost ridiculous degree this season.

Iowa State with two losses would still be in the top-five most seasons.

And that chart isn't even including Texas Tech who has beaten Duke and Houston. Lots of very good to legit great teams this season with high level NBA talent in what's supposed to be a very strong NBA draft this season.

 

[Sigmapolis]

And that chart isn't even including Texas Tech who has beaten Duke and Houston. Lots of very good to legit great teams this season with high level NBA talent in what's supposed to be a very strong NBA draft this season.

College basketball is just going to be stocked with talent and experience going forward in ways it hasn't been in decades (assuming the current NIL "system" is not totally overhauled somehow).

It used to be fringe NBA guys would leave as soon as they can.

Take your shot at the NBA when you're young and have "upside" potential.

Start the clock on a second contract (and real money) as soon as you can.

Should you fail then oh well. Make decent money and have a lot of fun overseas.

European guys unable to make the NBA would stay in Europe for much the same reason.

Now?

College ball pays those players at least as well if not better than those opportunities. NBA teams are more forgiving about players a few years older, and the European option will always be there.

Plus the money and free transfer rules mean it is going to be harder for a "mid-tier" team (either an under-resourced team in a power conference or heaven forbid a mid-major or low-major) to stay intact and "get old" to the point they've got a clutch of seniors who can take on just about anybody.

Those guys are going to chase a bag before it can all come together.

Very different world from even a few seasons ago.

 

[dahliaclone]

That arena is one of the toughest places to play in America. They have an awesome atmosphere. Its hilarious that in a world where Indiana just won the national title in football nobody thinks Nebraska could ever possibly be good in basketball.

what the hell are you talking about.

 

[CysEyesVet]

This has certainly been a crazy season so far and look no further than the current AP Top 10... Minimal losses and Nebraska remains undefeated!

Big 12 always makes college basketball more exciting just with how top heavy the conference is. Arizona and BYU will be crazy tonight and so will BYU and Kansas on Saturday.

To think we still have about a month and a half to go in conference play is exciting!

 

[not-the-manager]

I tend to disagree here. Nebraska hasn't played perfect but they have not shown to play nearly as bad as we have during a "down" game. I'm not sure they have the ceiling we do but their floor has proven thus far to be significantly better than ours. Since December 28, they are #5 in Torvik overall with the #2 defense. Ours is #22 in that same span (#21 overall).

I would be surprised to see them get down 26 in the first half against any team on their schedule.

I take your point, and I wasn't saying the Michigan game would play out exactly the same as Iowa State-Kansas even if Nebraska comes out flat. My argument is that they've really only played one "down" game. So, are they immune to D- games, or have we not seen how bad their D- is? I can see both sides, but it's not really worth debating, as the next two weeks will answer the question pretty definitively. To your point, they came back from being down 16 at Indiana rather than getting run off the court. But Michigan is better than Indiana

Torvik has them on the #5 line right now pushing for a #4 seed.

View attachment 166785



6 of the top 18 right now... which could turn into 6/16 if a few games go the "right" way.

The top six need to avoid any further upsets and frankly "sharing the wealth" a little bit between the top few teams might help (e.g., Kansas beating Iowa St., Arizona and Houston not running away with it).





Losses by the AP top-ten at this point in the year in previous seasons.

2026 = 10
2025 = 24
2024 = 29
2023 = 25
2022 = 21

College basketball is top-heavy to an almost ridiculous degree this season.

Iowa State with two losses would still be in the top-five most seasons.

As of now (poll rankings will change a bit) that number is 13 losses. But to your point, five of the 13 were to other top-10 teams. crazy

 

[deadeyededric]

what the hell are you talking about.

How tough of a venue Nebraska has for basketball. Has been ever since they built that place. Exactly why they don't lose there often.

 

[madguy30]

I take your point, and I wasn't saying the Michigan game would play out exactly the same as Iowa State-Kansas even if Nebraska comes out flat. My argument is that they've really only played one "down" game. So, are they immune to D- games, or have we not seen how bad their D- is? I can see both sides, but it's not really worth debating, as the next two weeks will answer the question pretty definitively. To your point, they came back from being down 16 at Indiana rather than getting run off the court. But Michigan is better than Indiana



As of now (poll rankings will change a bit) that number is 13 losses. But to your point, five of the 13 were to other top-10 teams. crazy

Give me KU over Michigan right now. KU has been playing fast and I think would dominate UM's guards.

 

[CRCySpy]

It'll catch up with them and they'll lose some games but this is a legit top 15 team. This is Fred's best team since he's been a college coach. They're gonna be tough next year also.

Will Fred be at Nebraska next year? If Sam is gone, and Fred gets Big Red to the "Sweet 16", does he parlay that into another NBA job/bigger college job?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Will Fred be at Nebraska next year? If Sam is gone, and Fred gets Big Red to the "Sweet 16", does he parlay that into another NBA job/bigger college job?

You would have to figure another crack at the NBA is his goal.

Still a hard case to make given how disastrous his Bulls run was.

Then again that place post-Jackson ruins every coach eventually.

 

[deadeyededric]

Will Fred be at Nebraska next year? If Sam is gone, and Fred gets Big Red to the "Sweet 16", does he parlay that into another NBA job/bigger college job?

Why would he leave? I can't imagine him getting a better opportunity. He has been on the hot seat there. He isn't going anywhere. I suppose he can leave just to go get fired again. Its not like he's a coveted prospect of an NBA coach.

 

[deadeyededric]

@dafarmer oh please try and tell me that hasn't become one of the best venues in college basketball. Tell me

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Why would he leave? I can't imagine him getting a better opportunity. He has been on the hot seat there. He isn't going anywhere. I suppose he can leave just to go get fired again. Its not like he's a coveted prospect of an NBA coach.

NIL might be a concern given its traditionally a big football school and having to split that pot.

 

[Marcelason78]

Will Fred be at Nebraska next year?….

Depends on the next dream.

 

[deadeyededric]

NIL might be a concern given its traditionally a big football school and having to split that pot.

I don't disagree. I do think he'll have the cash to win every year though. 20 wins anyway. Nebraska has good fans in general though. They aren't just football fans.

 

[CRCySpy]

Why would he leave? I can't imagine him getting a better opportunity. He has been on the hot seat there. He isn't going anywhere. I suppose he can leave just to go get fired again. Its not like he's a coveted prospect of an NBA coach.

Fred has NBA connections, and I feel his goal is to get back there again some day.

Highest ranking ever for Nebrasketball today. He could get another shot after an historical season at Nebraska. Still need to win that first tourney game and show something this March.

 

[deadeyededric]

Fred has NBA connections, and I feel his goal is to get back there again some day.

Highest ranking ever for Nebrasketball today. He could get another shot after an historical season at Nebraska. Still need to win that first tourney game and show something this March.

Why do you just assume that's his goal again? Maybe that was his goal 10 years ago. Does it piss you off that bad he may actually have intentions of sticking around in the college game this time? Tim Floyd stayed in college after his stint too. Hoiberg is in a pretty good place. We had our highest ranking ever this year at #2 also. It would destroy ISU fans to think Fred may have learned his lesson and wants to stick this out this time. I have no idea what his intentions are but it really wouldn't surprise me if that's the case. NBA gm's already have a sample size of him so what he's doing now isn't getting him another job alone.

 

[EnkAMania]

Torvic hates BYU, has them behind iowa.

 

[not-the-manager]

Will Fred be at Nebraska next year? If Sam is gone, and Fred gets Big Red to the "Sweet 16", does he parlay that into another NBA job/bigger college job?

There's no way he'd take another college job. Finishing in the ~top half of the conference is considered a good season there. Making the tournament is a great season. Winning a tournament game would be historic. I think @bluestarcyclone is right, I don't even know if this miracle season will shift fans' expectations going forward. They just want a competitive P4 team to make the winter more tolerable, then they can rev up the football hype train around April