2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I'm down if asked!
He always looks pissed off to me.
In a good way.
Like he's always looking for an ass to kick.
A blend of Niang and Royce White is the ISU comp that comes to mind for me for Jefferson.
He's "tougher" than both of them I think though. He was an absolute dog on the boards last game, which we needed since Baylor was being allowed to jump all over us with hardly a foul called under the auspices of "offensive rebounding".
I'm not that big a fan of JJ bringing the ball up so much, but TJ seems to be a fan and likely knows better than me.
He's "tougher" than both of them I think though. He was an absolute dog on the boards last game, which we needed since Baylor was being allowed to jump all over us with hardly a foul called under the auspices of "offensive rebounding".
I'm not that big a fan of JJ bringing the ball up so much, but TJ seems to be a fan and likely knows better than me.
I think someone mentioned it in the Iowa game thread, but that game is the only time remember him showing much emotion. Just always has the same demeanor to him, again not a bad thing though.
Not 100% true, I think I remember him smiling once
And Michigan.
I think it was in the WVU game that he fought for an offensive rebound and scored, getting fouled, and flexed, very briefly. That's as much emotion as I've seen out of him.
100% agree. The CF pods are still heavy football focused and feels like we aren’t giving this basketball team the attention it deserves (and we all want).
Lol, well, if Jefferson wasn't such a good passer and distributer, I think he'd be adding another 3-5 points per game given he has the same assists/game as our pg. He feeds Milan a lot and having a 55% 3 point shooter is nasty. Have you seen that video of a guy explaining how ISU has some elite efficiency player combinations with our lineup and I think he compared it to all time or some form of working it historically. I don't know if I'll find it though. It definitely is cool to listen to.
I think Jefferson's body control and touch are also underrated. Yeah, he's giant and can pass, but the way he bullies people out on the wings, you would think he'd get called for more charges. And there are so many college players—I'm thinking of one of Michigan State's bigs, since I've seen them in person—who can hold their own in the post but either get caught in bad spots and turn it over or get blocked, or who freeze up and short-arm floaters that have no chance. When Jefferson manages to get to the rim, I'm struggling to think of a time he didn't lay it up baby soft on the backboard
The NIL system has its drawbacks but it has created a better talent pool for college basketball and it shows. The transfer portal sucks because cores rarely stay together for long, we've been very fortunate that the Iowa State cores of the last few years have for the most part, but the quality of play in college basketball is higher as a result.
It also puts a bigger emphasis on coaching as rosters have so much turnover from year to year and coaches have to figure out a way for it to mesh on the fly. I think T.J. is especially good at this which is why Iowa State has thrived.
Let Him Cook is a great show, although not much on the analytics side of things.
Michigan has to be included in that top tier even after the struggle against Penn State, UConn almost lost to Providence also. I think Purdue is in that grouping as well, they're loaded. That win Iowa State had against them at Mackey is the best any team has had this season so far, that's a great team loaded with talent and experience.
Forgot Michigan. So 5 teams. Would put UConn at 5th.
Top ten right now on Torvik w/o preseason effects.
Two points.
1.) Michigan's defense is stupidly good. They're 4.2 points better per 100 than the next team (Arizona). They're probably the most likely national champion in the betting odds right now.
Good as many other teams have been... Michigan is a Death Star right now. But...
2.) Iowa State up to #2 in the rankings over Vanderbilt!
Two points.
1.) Michigan's defense is stupidly good. They're 4.2 points better per 100 than the next team (Arizona). They're probably the most likely national champion in the betting odds right now.
Good as many other teams have been... Michigan is a Death Star right now. But...
2.) Iowa State up to #2 in the rankings over Vanderbilt!
On unfiltered Torvik we're #6 under Michigan, Purdue, AZ, Vanderbilt and Uconn. Did they just all start with better priors? Hard to imagine Vanderbilt would have
I've been trying to figure out the differences between KenPom, Torvik and EvanMiya and what it means that we're so much lower in Torvik
Kenpom often seems to rate us a bit higher than Torvik.
Torvik sorts teams by the "barthag" score, which is the odds of beating (outscoring) a hypothetical average D1 team. Kenpom sorts teams by "NetRtg" which is just tempo-adjusted points scored minus points yielded, per possession. Nothing to do directly with winning/outscoring anyone in particular.
Why we favor better in one vs. the other, not sure. Kenpom I know does not consider "winning" in any direct way, all it cares about is what was the actual margin vs. the expected margin; maybe Torvik does.
Torvik sorts teams by the "barthag" score, which is the odds of beating (outscoring) a hypothetical average D1 team. Kenpom sorts teams by "NetRtg" which is just tempo-adjusted points scored minus points yielded, per possession. Nothing to do directly with winning/outscoring anyone in particular.
Why we favor better in one vs. the other, not sure. Kenpom I know does not consider "winning" in any direct way, all it cares about is what was the actual margin vs. the expected margin; maybe Torvik does.
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