I think you have to rule out anything down 6 or under early on. That's just basketball and getting a feel for the game.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
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I think you have to rule out anything down 6 or under early on. That's just basketball and getting a feel for the game.
Ah that makes sense. I bet I can guess what that big outlier bad game was for them then.
Wtf are you talking about? What does that have to do with me discussing undefeated teams?
The top of college basketball this season is insanely good.
Arizona, Michigan, our guys, Duke, UConn, Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Gonzaga are all great teams that can win the Championship. Texas Tech, Arkansas and Alabama are capable of making Final 4 runs. Nebraska and Vanderbilt undefeated, tons of great NBA prospects as well.
This is one of the most competitive seasons I can remember in college basketball for quite some time.
Arizona, Michigan, our guys, Duke, UConn, Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Gonzaga are all great teams that can win the Championship. Texas Tech, Arkansas and Alabama are capable of making Final 4 runs. Nebraska and Vanderbilt undefeated, tons of great NBA prospects as well.
This is one of the most competitive seasons I can remember in college basketball for quite some time.
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I think you have a lot of guys in NCAA getting good NIL money that otherwise would be playing in the G-League or Europe making less money. At the same time, it concentrates that talent to the places that have money to spend.
Elaborating a little further using Iowa St. this season as our example.
Circle = Nonconference
Square = Conference
Diamond = Conference tournament
Star = Postseason tournament (e.g., NIT games are still stars)
Size of shape = larger means a better opponent, smaller means worse
(notice the three small circles for those three cupcake games before the two squares for WVU and Baylor)
Green = Win
Pink/Red = Loss (notice we don't have any of those!)
Y-axis = game score (what % of college teams you would beat given your performance... we've only bagged one 100 this season for smacking a great Purdue team on their home court)
X-axis = chronology from the start to the end of the season.
It is crazy though how each of these guys are very important in their respective roles and how dominant this team can be when all those are filled at the same time. Agree with this all 100%. Plus, having up to 3 possible pgs on the team/floor at once is awesome. Jefferson's brain and passing ability is stellar. It allows the offense to be so versatile and creative and always having that sniper in Milan just makes them so dangerous at all locations on the floor. And, we really don't drop off in defense at any spots like we did last year when certain guys come off the floor. They can have an off night in shooting, and still be in the game/winning the game.
Can we get a few posters in this thread to do a CF podcast on the bball team? I want a really analytics in the weeds bball podcast
Then add in the roles Buchanan and Heise fill, and, to a lesser extent, Pleta, Batemon, even Nelson. Just an incredibly well-constructed roster, with buy-in for well-defined roles.
Basketball is somewhat unique in team sports in the outsized impact that one exceptional player can have, e.g. witness LeBron going to the Finals for like eight years straight no matter who else was on the team and healthy.
The unique thing about this team to me is (I'm perhaps underselling Jefferson here), we don't have a super-high-end talent, high-usage alpha-scorer-type player. None of our current roster is a shoe-in to be an NBA Lottery pick. But we do have three guys who would each be the best player on most other teams (very few other teams have three such players) and other players filling out the roster who complement those three really well. It's a master class in roster construction and buy-in by TJ.
Hard to overstate what a hot start this has been. Even if we're punching well above our weight and the wheels fall off here and we finish out .500, that's still a 23-8 regular season, pretty damn good!
The unique thing about this team to me is (I'm perhaps underselling Jefferson here), we don't have a super-high-end talent, high-usage alpha-scorer-type player. None of our current roster is a shoe-in to be an NBA Lottery pick. But we do have three guys who would each be the best player on most other teams (very few other teams have three such players) and other players filling out the roster who complement those three really well. It's a master class in roster construction and buy-in by TJ.
Hard to overstate what a hot start this has been. Even if we're punching well above our weight and the wheels fall off here and we finish out .500, that's still a 23-8 regular season, pretty damn good!
You are underselling Jefferson.
Never saw it coming. I thought they'd be good, but not this elite. Otz really is a roster configuring genius. I just hope (knock on wood) they continue to keep the well-oiled machine running and not have the February lull they've had in the past. I think having this much depth and talent versus the past, can stifle those lulls with having 3 elite scorers and more talented bigs that we haven't had in the more recent past. A guy can have an off night and someone else will take over.
This is exactly why I love basketball so much. The chemistry matters immensely and makes things so much more interesting. It's not just "go buy as much talent as you can" like football is getting (at least at the college level).
As many here have pointed out, it feels like the playing field has actually been leveled with basketball in the NIL area because one or two elite players with the right pieces around them can be highly competitive. And as you note, TJ is proving to be elite at this.
Yea, I and think I had been as well. Not that I didn't think he was good but he was one of the players that could step up and have big night every few games.
No, this dude is expected to have a big night every night. He will have a few off games ( as in 10 pts, 7 reb, 2 assist if that is bad) but he is without a doubt one of the best 5 players in the country.
The thing is, he is so smooth, he doesn't display any emotion and he knows how to choose his spots.
After he goes in Allen Fieldhouse and puts up 20/10/5 I'll reveal my perfect comp for him and I will catch major flack for it but I am absolutely right with it.
And chemistry is not just in how the pieces fit in terms of skills and roles. Also very much in terms of human interaction, emotion, and culture. Teams are better when they feel like brothers, have fun together, root for each other.
