NBA: *** 2024 NBA thread ***
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People will tell you only 5 road teams have one a game 7 finals...but they leave out there have only been 19 because that doesn't sound as daunting.
26% chance for a team that was written off in December but has been red hot since January? I'll take it.
TLDR warning, non NBA fans, non Pacer fans, non Hali fans please skip.
Some reasons for Pacer optimism:
- Haliburton looked significantly better than Game 5 but still not 100% possible another 3 days gets him still more improved. Hitting a couple of those no hesitation 3s is a great sign. Last year when injured against Boston he wouldn't even take them and in Game 5 something was obviously off. Then only playing 23 minutes is another bonus.
- OKC to me just seems like a less dangerous team on offense for all sorts of reasons. Williams is very good in half court and excellent on the break. SGA can't really be shut down in half court yet his best shot at the end of the day is a 50% 2 point shot and that's not as dangerous as any Pacer taking a 3 or any Pacer getting a Tyrese pass. The difference between "good" and "great" nights with him is largely up to officials which is better than a player who can just score 40 whether officials are down for it or not.
- Pacers just have a higher # of players who can shoot and make big shots if the game comes down to big shots. Not even getting into Tyrese magic, just depth of offensive skill.
- Holmgren is supposed to be their "third star" but he can't do anything if matched against Turner and when he ends up mismatched on Tyrese or Nembhard on D it's basically an automatic Pacer basket. He hasn't shot the 3 well and when he shoots it against Turner it's usually a blocked shot.
- Turner has been shooting the 3 HORRIBLY in Finals and if you watched him all year he goes through stretches where he's an automatic three point shooter. Either he stops taking them or at some point he reverts to the mean, either of those is a win.
- OKC defense is insane but it's dependent on officials saying plays are turnovers rather than OKC fouls because they do foul to cause a lot of turnovers/travels/out of bounds. We saw it even when they got killed in Game 6. Will they get that Hardenstein no call in game 7 or will the officials do their job and not let him shove a guy out of bounds? Will Tyrese have a lot of turnovers because they let Dort hack him across the arms? We don't know. It's up to officials to decide, but officials don't decide if Pacer 3s go in or not.
- Pacers have a coach and star player who have been here before and been major part of winning this.
- Pacers have played very well in lots of road games this playoffs, game 5 of finals not withstanding. In the earlier rounds they were playing better on the road than at home.
Some reasons for Pacer optimism:
- Haliburton looked significantly better than Game 5 but still not 100% possible another 3 days gets him still more improved. Hitting a couple of those no hesitation 3s is a great sign. Last year when injured against Boston he wouldn't even take them and in Game 5 something was obviously off. Then only playing 23 minutes is another bonus.
- OKC to me just seems like a less dangerous team on offense for all sorts of reasons. Williams is very good in half court and excellent on the break. SGA can't really be shut down in half court yet his best shot at the end of the day is a 50% 2 point shot and that's not as dangerous as any Pacer taking a 3 or any Pacer getting a Tyrese pass. The difference between "good" and "great" nights with him is largely up to officials which is better than a player who can just score 40 whether officials are down for it or not.
- Pacers just have a higher # of players who can shoot and make big shots if the game comes down to big shots. Not even getting into Tyrese magic, just depth of offensive skill.
- Holmgren is supposed to be their "third star" but he can't do anything if matched against Turner and when he ends up mismatched on Tyrese or Nembhard on D it's basically an automatic Pacer basket. He hasn't shot the 3 well and when he shoots it against Turner it's usually a blocked shot.
- Turner has been shooting the 3 HORRIBLY in Finals and if you watched him all year he goes through stretches where he's an automatic three point shooter. Either he stops taking them or at some point he reverts to the mean, either of those is a win.
- OKC defense is insane but it's dependent on officials saying plays are turnovers rather than OKC fouls because they do foul to cause a lot of turnovers/travels/out of bounds. We saw it even when they got killed in Game 6. Will they get that Hardenstein no call in game 7 or will the officials do their job and not let him shove a guy out of bounds? Will Tyrese have a lot of turnovers because they let Dort hack him across the arms? We don't know. It's up to officials to decide, but officials don't decide if Pacer 3s go in or not.
- Pacers have a coach and star player who have been here before and been major part of winning this.
- Pacers have played very well in lots of road games this playoffs, game 5 of finals not withstanding. In the earlier rounds they were playing better on the road than at home.
I think this point, along with OKC being 'under pressure' as the home team bodes well for the Pacers IMO. Need to get out to a quick start and force OKC into more pressure and I think stealing Game 7 becomes a real possibility for Indy.
7-Game Finals Series
Road team victories in bold
Road team victories in bold
| YEAR | FORMAT | Gm 1 | Gm 2 | Gm 3 | Gm 4 | Gm 5 | Gm 6 | Gm 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-2-1-1-1 | IND | OKC | IND | OKC | OKC | IND | |
| 2016 | 2-2-1-1-1 | GSW | GSW | CLE | GSW | CLE | CLE | CLE |
| 2013 | 2-3-2 | SA | MIA | SA | MIA | SA | MIA | MIA |
| 2010 | 2-3-2 | LA | BOS | LA | BOS | BOS | LA | LA |
| 2005 | 2-3-2 | SA | SA | DET | DET | SA | DET | SA |
| 1994 | 2-3-2 | HOU | NY | HOU | NY | NY | HOU | HOU |
| 1988 | 2-3-2 | DET | LA | LA | DET | DET | LA | LA |
| 1984 | 2-2-1-1-1 | LA | BOS | LA | BOS | BOS | LA | BOS |
| 1978 | 1-2-2-1-1 | SEA | WSH | SEA | WSH | SEA | WSH | WSH |
| 1974 | 2-2-1-1-1 | BOS | MIL | BOS | MIL | BOS | MIL | BOS |
| 1970 | 2-2-1-1-1 | NY | LA | NY | LA | NY | LA | NY |
| 1969 | 2-2-1-1-1 | LA | LA | BOS | BOS | LA | BOS | BOS |
| 1966 | 2-2-1-1-1 | LA | BOS | BOS | BOS | LA | LA | BOS |
| 1962 | 2-2-1-1-1 | BOS | LA | LA | BOS | LA | BOS | BOS |
| 1960 | 2-2-1-1-1 | BOS | STL | BOS | STL | BOS | STL | BOS |
| 1957 | 2-2-1-1-1 | STL | BOS | STL | BOS | BOS | STL | BOS |
| 1955 | 2-3-2 | SYR | SYR | FTW | FTW | FTW | SYR | SYR |
| 1954 | 2-3-2 | MPLS | SYR | MPLS | SYR | MPLS | SYR | MPLS |
| 1952 | 2-2-1-1-1 | MPLS | NY | MPLS | NY | MPLS | NY | MPLS |
| 1951 | 2-2-1-1-1 | ROCH | ROCH | ROCH | NY | NY | NY | ROCH |
I feel like so much of this game is going to come down to how much the refs let Dort and Caruso just foul with reckless abandon and not call it. And it's sad that that's the kind of thing it could come down to.
It's all but wrapped up for him if they win. He's been pretty great all series. Unless Hali goes for like 50/10/10 with the game winner
Fine, I’ll take 50/10/10 with the game winner.
