2021 Stock Market

I feel like analysts have completely tied DIS to Disney+ performance.

I honestly don't get it. Yeah Disney+ doesn't have the subscribers of Netflix... but was that the point? To me the strength of Disney+ is the fact that they already have a huge amount of content that basically every parent is going to subscribe for. I've been a day one subscriber because I have 3 young kids. It's on literally probably 2 hours a day in my house. I think if their goal was to get as big as Netflix it was dumb. Their goal should have been to get a nice big subscriber base (already 118 million) and basically not need to spend the gobs of money Netflix has to in keeping the content train running.

Probably depends on how you're valuing something. Future cash flows of rivian may be depending on what Ford or Chevy have planned for the future.

Rivian really needed to get into the market first in a big way. Again, I'm sure their product is nice but it's going to be double the cost of the electric F150.
 
I honestly don't get it. Yeah Disney+ doesn't have the subscribers of Netflix... but was that the point? To me the strength of Disney+ is the fact that they already have a huge amount of content that basically every parent is going to subscribe for. I've been a day one subscriber because I have 3 young kids. It's on literally probably 2 hours a day in my house. I think if their goal was to get as big as Netflix it was dumb. Their goal should have been to get a nice big subscriber base (already 118 million) and basically not need to spend the gobs of money Netflix has to in keeping the content train running.



Rivian really needed to get into the market first in a big way. Again, I'm sure their product is nice but it's going to be double the cost of the electric F150.

I still don't know why or if the market is really fired up for a move to electric. Do people get excited by this? Base their next car purchase on gas vs EV?

I'm sure some do, but I'm just not there yet as a consumer.
 
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I still don't know why or if the market is really fired up for a move to electric. Do people get excited by this? Base their next car purchase on gas vs EV?

I'm sure some do, but I'm just not there yet as a consumer.

My wife wants her next vehicle to be an electric. I’ll probably get a new car next year and it will be gas. I still worry about the infrastructure for electric vehicles.

But I’m with you, this doesn’t seem to really be consumers demanding it as much as other car companies trying to compete with Tesla from a market standpoint. But I’m not sure.
 
I still don't know why or if the market is really fired up for a move to electric. Do people get excited by this? Base their next car purchase on gas vs EV?

I'm sure some do, but I'm just not there yet as a consumer.
I don't know if excited is the right word, but I'm ready to cut gas stations out of my life for the most part. I just built a new home and had them run the wiring to the garage for a charge station. I would guess my next vehicle purchase will be at least a hybrid and maybe a full ev.
 
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I still don't know why or if the market is really fired up for a move to electric. Do people get excited by this? Base their next car purchase on gas vs EV?

I'm sure some do, but I'm just not there yet as a consumer.

I’m getting the electric F150. When I bought my last car I said it’s be the last gas vehicle I’d get. My wife will still have a gas car for trips and stuff.
 
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This market makes me so nervous. I'd like to retire in 10 years. Over the last 3 years my retirement savings has went up 25%, 18%, and 17% so far this year. If I could be promised 4%+inflation over the next 10 years, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Everything is overvalued but there is no where else to put the money. I think I'm just going to move the majority out of the S&P 500 and put it in a 2030 fund.

Occidental Petroleum, and if you don't mind the tax implications of owning a MLP, Energy Transfer Partners. (OXY & ET)

Both are insanely undervalued because of debt but are generating tremendous cash flow and paying it down, and oil is going to $120 next year. A new bull market in oil has begun. OXY is my largest holding.
 
Probably depends on how you're valuing something. Future cash flows of rivian may be depending on what Ford or Chevy have planned for the future.

Car companies are generally terrible investments. Capital intensive AF, and competitive advantages are hard to come by and short lived. Then there's the whole trying to stay relevant stylingwise. And the fact that the auto industry is cyclical. The argument is that these EV companies are actually tech companies, but that's nonsense.

When every manufacturer has a decent EV they'll become just another commodity. And when that happens, say goodbye to that sky high PE, along with the capital of those who've decided they should be valued as tech companies.
 
I still don't know why or if the market is really fired up for a move to electric. Do people get excited by this? Base their next car purchase on gas vs EV?

I'm sure some do, but I'm just not there yet as a consumer.

I spend a fair amount of time on car sites and I don't believe people are excited about it...but it doesn't matter because nearly every automaker has a significant investment into EVs by now. They're coming and in 15 years either EVs will dominate new car sales, or whatever non-dinosaur fluid tech is available to push cars around.

I believe most people buy cars to get around and don't care what propulsion methods are used as long as it gets them from A to B safely and reliably. They'll buy what is available.

You may not be there, but a lot of people are either there or don't care.
 
I spend a fair amount of time on car sites and I don't believe people are excited about it...but it doesn't matter because nearly every automaker has a significant investment into EVs by now. They're coming and in 15 years either EVs will dominate new car sales, or whatever non-dinosaur fluid tech is available to push cars around.

I believe most people buy cars to get around and don't care what propulsion methods are used as long as it gets them from A to B safely and reliably. They'll buy what is available.

You may not be there, but a lot of people are either there or don't care.
Plus at some point EVs might be mandated some places in the world. Not tomorrow or anything but 15-30 years sure.
 
I spend a fair amount of time on car sites and I don't believe people are excited about it...but it doesn't matter because nearly every automaker has a significant investment into EVs by now. They're coming and in 15 years either EVs will dominate new car sales, or whatever non-dinosaur fluid tech is available to push cars around.

I believe most people buy cars to get around and don't care what propulsion methods are used as long as it gets them from A to B safely and reliably. They'll buy what is available.

You may not be there, but a lot of people are either there or don't care.
I think they'll be excited when more and more of them start coming out and the advantages show up. As an example, SUV's and Pickups are the most popular vehicles. How many EV SUV's are there under $70k? Maybe 3? Most of them small and most of them have about a $15k premium over ICE. How many EV pickups can you walk into the showroom and buy? Zero? I think the F150 Lightning will be a game changer where people compare the EV and the ICE head to head.
 
I spend a fair amount of time on car sites and I don't believe people are excited about it...but it doesn't matter because nearly every automaker has a significant investment into EVs by now. They're coming and in 15 years either EVs will dominate new car sales, or whatever non-dinosaur fluid tech is available to push cars around.

I believe most people buy cars to get around and don't care what propulsion methods are used as long as it gets them from A to B safely and reliably. They'll buy what is available.

You may not be there, but a lot of people are either there or don't care.
If they don’t care, they will decide by conveniences and cost. That would lean towards combustion engines. EV will need to come down in price and be as easy to refuel as gas engines.
 
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if you dont think this (Hyundai Grandeur Heritage EV Concept) owns you are drunk and on drugs




hyundai-heritage-series-grandeur-concept.jpg
 


I have a pre-order in for the Rivian SUV. Because of that Rivian had given me the option of buying up to a certain number of shares (turned out to be about 125 in the end I think at $78).

Initially I had the intention of buying (the first advertised price was around $57-$62), but the more I researched, the more I thought it was overpriced, especially at the final price of $78.

I did not buy any shares basically because of the reasons described in this video. I thought I was making a rational decision, even though I like the company and intend on buying a vehicle from them.

Maybe I was overly cautious and I should be kicking myself, but this current valuation still seems insane to me.
 
I do think we're entering the electric car market faster than people have predicted. With that said, it's hard for me to think Rivian is more valuable than Ford and Chevy.

People must think they are the next Tesla. Tesla still seems way over valued, I think once Ford gets going on their EV lineup they will compete. I would rather have a ford than a Tesla in Iowa because it can get repaired much easier. Doing lots of research right now because I am going to get an EV for my next vehicle to try it out.