Looking at the Big 12 prior to the conference season has many sub-plots that need to be mentioned. As usual we see some of the pre-season candidates for highest honors just about where they are supposed to be. We also see a couple that appear to have imploded. Finally, there are posers that will likely be exposed in a hurry. I’m going to dig into each team based on the pre-season picks…here we go with teams 1-5.
#1 Iowa State
Preseason coaches pick to win the conference. Ranked as high as the top five before being “exposed” with weak second half falters. Has played a pretty reasonable pre-conference schedule with some definite quality on the list. Against the Top 25 they are 1-2 with both loses being complete second half collapses that could have gone the other way with consistent play.
ISU has added a new weapon in the middle with the 6’6” Soares. As long as she can stay out of foul trouble or avoid being gassed she completely changes this team. With her the Cyclones are a Top 10 squad that can play with and beat almost anyone. Without her they fall back to a team that would be Top 25…likely upper teens or low 20’s. She makes that much difference. We also know how deadly this team can be IF they are hitting the three ball. We just haven’t seen that consistently this year. The volume is high but the season percentage is about 33% and they average a respectable nearly 10 per game. But that is on nearly 30 attempts per game. Finally…don’t put them on the line. They are deadly hitting 80% (which is negatively affected by a couple of bad performances).
What to expect?
ISU will be in the hunt for the title, but if they get into a game where fouls are called against them or they aren’t hitting from deep they likely could pick up some losses that keep them out of the top seat.
#2 Texas
This was a team that started the season in the Top Five and there were high expectations. They faltered immediately out of the gates to a 3-4 record (albeit against some tough opponents). The big story of their 8-4 record is injuries. They lost Aaliyah Moore for the season to a torn ACL. They also have seen Ron Harmon get off to a slow start after a pre-season injury. Once Harmon returned Texas started playing like everyone expected them to (although as with many schedules, the opponents have been pushovers). Texas is still a very physical team and will try to force opponents out of their game if the officials let things go. Harmon is a speed bug that you always have to watch out for.
What to expect?
We will know something right out of the gates as Texas plays KSU at home on Saturday. Should be a good test to see where they are at. Losing Moore hurts, but the Horns have a little bit of depth to rely on. Expect them to be in the hunt, but to take some unexpected losses along the way.
#3 Oklahoma
We all know what OU aspires to be - a team that makes the three and runs the court. They were ranked #15 to start the season and have some nice pieces to their puzzle. Four players returning that averaged double figures last year so you’d expect them to score some points. What I also don’t expect to change is their propensity to not play good defense. While they were the top scoring offense in the Big 12, they were the worst defense. They had a very weird game early on where #25 Utah absolutely blew the Sooners out of the water 124-78. So far the Sooners are averaging almost 88 points per game while giving up 73. They mirror the Cyclones in the number of three point attempts and success rate. Where they shine is rebounding and their assist rate (20 per game). They move well and if you don’t play defense they will knock you out. The Sooners have been tested as they played good Ole Miss and Florida squads (both wins).
What to expect?
I expect OU to be the team that surprises everyone this year. They have a fantastic coach who now has her identity all over the program. They have lots of offensive firepower and speed. I could see OU sneaking some road wins out that could be the difference in winning the conference. Keep your eyes peeled here. They start off at WVU so I’m not sure what that will tell us. We know WVU always plays defense, but they aren’t what they used to be.
#4 Baylor
Anyone surprised about Baylor being picked to finish fourth? All you have to know is Kim Mulkey is gone and that has impacted Baylor far more than anyone might expect. It wasn’t just a passing of the baton. While Baylor did well last year with Mulkey’s players things are changing with key players graduating and the replacements not being of the same caliber. You don’t lose NaLyssa Smith and Queen Ego and expect things to be the same. Baylor is off to a 9-3 start which should say something immediately. With the exception of a close win (neutral court) versus Villanova, the Bears haven’t been able to get the wins against the other ranked foes they normally would handle with relative ease (#19 Maryland @home, #22 Michigan @neutral, and #20 Arizona @sort of neutral). Baylor, for the time being, is still Baylor. They have some talented players returning and are averaging 74 ppg while only giving up 55 (take note of that last number!). Also keep in mind they have played four top 25 teams that impact those numbers. Average shooting team and they really struggle at the line (63%). They share the ball with each other and their opponents (14 turnovers per game). They have six players who average (rounding up) double figures and their depth goes ten deep for quality minutes. Keep your eyes on seniors Bickle and Owens.
What to expect?
I don’t really know on this one. Baylor appears to have taken a step back, but they are still very dangerous. Like Texas, if the officials let things go, they will beat you physically. Mulkey always had a way of keeping the officials in line. Not sure about the new coach. In reality, I expect Baylor to lose some head scratchers and beat some of the best. That means they end up with about 6 conference losses relegating them to the upper middle third of the conference. Baylor starts things at home with TCU and then gets a real test traveling to OU. That should tell us something right away.
#5 Kansas
KU was surprising last year. They not only escaped the bottom of the Big 12 (their customary position since Washington left), they were a contender for an upper half finish all season long. They made their presence known in the dance as well. They return their key pieces with Kersgieter and Franklin (seniors) leading the way. The border thieves are off to a 10-1 start with some VERY impressive wins against Texas A&M and absolutely dominating Arizona in Tucson. What has impressed me the most is their defense. Last year they were an offensive team that could score (they were efficient) and this year they are scoring even more while holding opponents to fewer points. They have been going 8 deep for significant minutes and they have seen post Taiyanna Jackson emerge as a dominant player in the middle after a so so season last year.
What to expect?
We won’t learn much in the first week as KU gets OSU and Texas Tech for starters. They follow up with Baylor, Texas and OU (the last two away) so we will learn a lot from those games. Pretender or contender? So far KU has been the best looking team in the conference. Quality wins and no real warts (their only loss a triple overtime loss to Nebraska on the road). Last year teams that played defense bothered them. We will see if that has changed. I expect them to be in the hunt late into the conference season.
#1 Iowa State
Preseason coaches pick to win the conference. Ranked as high as the top five before being “exposed” with weak second half falters. Has played a pretty reasonable pre-conference schedule with some definite quality on the list. Against the Top 25 they are 1-2 with both loses being complete second half collapses that could have gone the other way with consistent play.
ISU has added a new weapon in the middle with the 6’6” Soares. As long as she can stay out of foul trouble or avoid being gassed she completely changes this team. With her the Cyclones are a Top 10 squad that can play with and beat almost anyone. Without her they fall back to a team that would be Top 25…likely upper teens or low 20’s. She makes that much difference. We also know how deadly this team can be IF they are hitting the three ball. We just haven’t seen that consistently this year. The volume is high but the season percentage is about 33% and they average a respectable nearly 10 per game. But that is on nearly 30 attempts per game. Finally…don’t put them on the line. They are deadly hitting 80% (which is negatively affected by a couple of bad performances).
What to expect?
ISU will be in the hunt for the title, but if they get into a game where fouls are called against them or they aren’t hitting from deep they likely could pick up some losses that keep them out of the top seat.
#2 Texas
This was a team that started the season in the Top Five and there were high expectations. They faltered immediately out of the gates to a 3-4 record (albeit against some tough opponents). The big story of their 8-4 record is injuries. They lost Aaliyah Moore for the season to a torn ACL. They also have seen Ron Harmon get off to a slow start after a pre-season injury. Once Harmon returned Texas started playing like everyone expected them to (although as with many schedules, the opponents have been pushovers). Texas is still a very physical team and will try to force opponents out of their game if the officials let things go. Harmon is a speed bug that you always have to watch out for.
What to expect?
We will know something right out of the gates as Texas plays KSU at home on Saturday. Should be a good test to see where they are at. Losing Moore hurts, but the Horns have a little bit of depth to rely on. Expect them to be in the hunt, but to take some unexpected losses along the way.
#3 Oklahoma
We all know what OU aspires to be - a team that makes the three and runs the court. They were ranked #15 to start the season and have some nice pieces to their puzzle. Four players returning that averaged double figures last year so you’d expect them to score some points. What I also don’t expect to change is their propensity to not play good defense. While they were the top scoring offense in the Big 12, they were the worst defense. They had a very weird game early on where #25 Utah absolutely blew the Sooners out of the water 124-78. So far the Sooners are averaging almost 88 points per game while giving up 73. They mirror the Cyclones in the number of three point attempts and success rate. Where they shine is rebounding and their assist rate (20 per game). They move well and if you don’t play defense they will knock you out. The Sooners have been tested as they played good Ole Miss and Florida squads (both wins).
What to expect?
I expect OU to be the team that surprises everyone this year. They have a fantastic coach who now has her identity all over the program. They have lots of offensive firepower and speed. I could see OU sneaking some road wins out that could be the difference in winning the conference. Keep your eyes peeled here. They start off at WVU so I’m not sure what that will tell us. We know WVU always plays defense, but they aren’t what they used to be.
#4 Baylor
Anyone surprised about Baylor being picked to finish fourth? All you have to know is Kim Mulkey is gone and that has impacted Baylor far more than anyone might expect. It wasn’t just a passing of the baton. While Baylor did well last year with Mulkey’s players things are changing with key players graduating and the replacements not being of the same caliber. You don’t lose NaLyssa Smith and Queen Ego and expect things to be the same. Baylor is off to a 9-3 start which should say something immediately. With the exception of a close win (neutral court) versus Villanova, the Bears haven’t been able to get the wins against the other ranked foes they normally would handle with relative ease (#19 Maryland @home, #22 Michigan @neutral, and #20 Arizona @sort of neutral). Baylor, for the time being, is still Baylor. They have some talented players returning and are averaging 74 ppg while only giving up 55 (take note of that last number!). Also keep in mind they have played four top 25 teams that impact those numbers. Average shooting team and they really struggle at the line (63%). They share the ball with each other and their opponents (14 turnovers per game). They have six players who average (rounding up) double figures and their depth goes ten deep for quality minutes. Keep your eyes on seniors Bickle and Owens.
What to expect?
I don’t really know on this one. Baylor appears to have taken a step back, but they are still very dangerous. Like Texas, if the officials let things go, they will beat you physically. Mulkey always had a way of keeping the officials in line. Not sure about the new coach. In reality, I expect Baylor to lose some head scratchers and beat some of the best. That means they end up with about 6 conference losses relegating them to the upper middle third of the conference. Baylor starts things at home with TCU and then gets a real test traveling to OU. That should tell us something right away.
#5 Kansas
KU was surprising last year. They not only escaped the bottom of the Big 12 (their customary position since Washington left), they were a contender for an upper half finish all season long. They made their presence known in the dance as well. They return their key pieces with Kersgieter and Franklin (seniors) leading the way. The border thieves are off to a 10-1 start with some VERY impressive wins against Texas A&M and absolutely dominating Arizona in Tucson. What has impressed me the most is their defense. Last year they were an offensive team that could score (they were efficient) and this year they are scoring even more while holding opponents to fewer points. They have been going 8 deep for significant minutes and they have seen post Taiyanna Jackson emerge as a dominant player in the middle after a so so season last year.
What to expect?
We won’t learn much in the first week as KU gets OSU and Texas Tech for starters. They follow up with Baylor, Texas and OU (the last two away) so we will learn a lot from those games. Pretender or contender? So far KU has been the best looking team in the conference. Quality wins and no real warts (their only loss a triple overtime loss to Nebraska on the road). Last year teams that played defense bothered them. We will see if that has changed. I expect them to be in the hunt late into the conference season.
