I don't trust Florida. They have some good bigs, but their guards are just average. Teams like that get bounced early in the tourny. Plus, the SEC was downright bad this year.
If Duke gets healthy, I think they are a final four lock.
Michigan is backing into the tournament, but they are loaded with talent. I expect them to turn it up a notch.
Arizona is my pick to win it all. No weaknesses, and they've been consistently dominant all year.