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Is the B10 a 2-bid league

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SolterraCyclone

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Jul 26, 2021
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I was looking at B10 standings so far through 5-6 games, and I see a 50/50 scenario shaping up where the B10 only gets two teams in.

I’m assuming Ohio State and Oregon are locks and PSU eliminated itself with the UCLA.

Indiana looks like the third obvious team. They travel to Oregon this week, which I assume is a loss. They could run the table from there, but that trip to Happy Valley is a major stumbling block. Honestly, that’s a win and they’re in, lose and they’re out game imo.

The other possible At-larges will probably eliminate themselves the rest of the year.

USC still hosts Michigan this week, is at Nebraska, at Notre Dame, and at Oregon the rest of the way. At least 2 more losses there.

Michigan plays USC in a must win for them this week, but also host Washington and Ohio State last game of the year. If they knock off USC this week they can afford a Wash or OSU loss, but not both.

Illinois hosts OSU this week, which is a loss. Their schedule is easy the rest of the way, but I think they probably lose another along the way (@washington, host Rutgers and Maryland, at Wisconsin are all land mines).

Washington still is at Michigan, hosts Illinois and Oregon. 2 more losses there.

Nebraska has a very easy schedule, but really hast to run the table. And they host USC and are at PSU. Have to win both.

I don’t consider Maryland a contender. And they still have games against Nebraska, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan left. They have to run the table.

All that said : USC through Maryland will all probably eliminate each other throughout the rest of the year. That Indiana vs PSU matchup will probably be make or break for B10 to get more than 2 teams.
 
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AllInForISU said:
Short answer? No. They will get at least 3 in.

Just want to be clear, I see where you are coming from and don’t think the Big 10 will deserve it. But that doesn’t seem to matter in this version of the playoff.
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Probably yes. But not a slam dunk. I think the real question is does the committee take a 2-loss Indiana that doesn’t make the B10 championship
 
AllInForISU said:
Short answer? No. They will get at least 3 in.

Just want to be clear, I see where you are coming from and don’t think the Big 10 will deserve it. But that doesn’t seem to matter in this version of the playoff.
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I imagine so, but as @SolterraCyclone presents it, the "path" to only 2 bids is possible.

A lot has to go wrong, in a similar way that everything for Big 12 has to go 'right' to get multiple slots.
 
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SolterraCyclone said:
Probably yes. But not a slam dunk. I think the real question is does the committee take a 2-loss Indiana that doesn’t make the B10 championship
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A 2-loss Indiana team that didn't make the B1G title game because of two top-5 teams would and should absolutely make the playoffs IMO. And that's IF they take another loss after Oregon. I'd bet a 2-loss Illinois team whose only losses were to Indiana and tOSU would also have a good chance to get in.
 
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cyclones500 said:
I imagine so, but as @SolterraCyclone presents it, the "path" to only 2 bids is possible.

A lot has to go wrong, in a similar way that everything for Big 12 has to go 'right' to get multiple slots.
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Logically yes. But even if this all does happen exactly, I would still guess somehow the big 10 gets at least 3 in. The playoff committee is not logical. It would also mean the SEC gets like 7 or 8 in. Which would be insane.
 
Gonzo said:
A 2-loss Indiana team that didn't make the B1G title game because of two top-5 teams would and should absolutely make the playoffs IMO. And that's IF they take another loss after Oregon. I'd bet a 2-loss Illinois team whose only losses were to Indiana and tOSU would also have a good chance to get in.
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I believe the only 2-loss team that made the CFP last year and didn’t play in the conference championship was Tennessee. Indiana’s resume would be very similar to theirs. So it’s possible, maybe probable.

BUT if the committee is deciding between 2 loss Indiana and 2-loss Notre Dame….
 
Now make the case that the SEC is a three-bid league (Bama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma). Playoff committee would never consider it, but…….
 
Probably not, but I think this year is another example of why 8 playoff teams is a better solution than 16 or 24. 12 already seems like too many, but they won't go backwards at this point.
 
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ClonerJams said:
Probably not, but I think this year is another example of why 8 playoff teams is a better solution than 16 or 24. 12 already seems like too many, but they won't go backwards at this point.
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It always should've been 8. But here we are and there's no way the # is going to go down instead of up. And as long as it goes up, it's just clearing the path for more B1G and SEC teams in there. Yormark needs to slowly back away from 5+11 and grab a model with 2 auto-bids for the Big 12 while he can.
 
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Gonzo said:
It always should've been 8. But here we are and there's no way the # is going to go down instead of up. And as long as it goes up, it's just clearing the path for more B1G and SEC teams in there. Yormark needs to slowly back away from 5+11 and grab a model with 2 auto-bids for the Big 12 while he can.
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Doubt if the ACC would agree.
 
Kinch said:
Now make the case that the SEC is a three-bid league (Bama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma). Playoff committee would never consider it, but…….
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I cannot make that case. They have four teams who are 5-0, plus UGA, Bama, LSU, and Tennessee at 4-1 (and Vandy at 4-1 fwiw).

I could see them getting 5 or 6 this year.
 
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SolterraCyclone said:
I cannot make that case. They have four teams who are 5-0, plus UGA, Bama, LSU, and Tennessee at 4-1 (and Vandy at 4-1 fwiw).

I could see them getting 5 or 6 this year.
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Yeah but lots of those records are going to be pretty janked up by year's end after they've played each other.
 
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SolterraCyclone said:
I cannot make that case. They have four teams who are 5-0, plus UGA, Bama, LSU, and Tennessee at 4-1 (and Vandy at 4-1 fwiw).

I could see them getting 5 or 6 this year.
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I could too. But if Bama and Ole Miss win out and OU wins out except losing to Bama. Say Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and Texas play spoiler. Probably four in that scenario. But what happens if TAMU gets upset?
 
With 12 bids, I think each P4 conference should be guaranteed 2... the remaining 4 can be at large bids.
 
Most likely 4 again this year, just switch out Penn state with one of Michigan/Illinois/etc depending on how the schedule falls.

Big question is does the ACC get 2 or not and how much does the SEC beat up each other
 
FriendlySpartan said:
Most likely 4 again this year, just switch out Penn state with one of Michigan/Illinois/etc depending on how the schedule falls.

Big question is does the ACC get 2 or not and how much does the SEC beat up each other
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If SEC beats each other up, they get at least four, maybe five, IMHO.
 
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