Thoughts on next year?

With the portal and additions we are making, I suspect we are going to, at minimum, tweak the 335 to line one of our bigger LBs on the line standing up. Just seems we are going that way.
 
So, to answer that question would take about 25 pages. But I'll give it a go.

1. Stop watching the NFL and think " Iowa State can do that". Georgia doesn't do that. USC doesn't do that. Ohio State doesn't do that. They have the kids in college the NFL is using for that scheme. And they are like " F that, that won't work". So, if the best D linemen in college aren't doing... its not going to work at Iowa State.

When you watch the NFL, you are watching the 0.0001% of football players. So thinking that scheme can work at Iowa State, where we are a developmental program that's not rolling out a ton of NFL defensive linemen year in, year out... just no. That's not even apples to oranges, that's like apples to steak.

2. The NFL game is very different from college. Sure, its more similar in some ways, but its also very, very different. How many great running backs are there in the NFL? Barkley, Henry, then... IDK? Gibbs/Montgomery are good, but great? Say you go those two. After those four guys... who else? My point is, the NFL is 85% anymore quarterback driven. In college football, its 75-80% running back driven. If you can maul people up front and run the ball in college, you can win games. Hell, look at Arizona State. I really like their Quarterback, think he's good and has a crapload of potential, BUT... it was turn around and hand the ball off to a battering ram and they just won the Big 12 with that.

Put it another way.. We faced how many good to great quarterbacks this year? Two? Maybe, maybe 3? (Tech, ASU, Miami). When it comes to the ability to throw the ball, not scramble. At most 4 if you include the kid from Baylor. How many very good to elite RB's did we face?

Miami, Iowa, Tech, WVU, Kansas, Arizona State, UCF, etc... daring people to run inside in college football would be like waving a $20 in front of your middle school bully's face when it's just you and him in the locker room and no one else. Or walking thru the Serengeti covered in blood.

3. Putting slower linebackers on the field is never a good idea. Sure, they are faster than a defensive linemen, in theory, at least. But the problem there lies in that they are also (In theory) far less effective at taking on a 325 pulling guard or tackle slipping up to the second level than a defensive linemen. Why's that bad? Well, if you aren't athletic and can't scrape over the top, I don't even have to block you, I Just need to get in the way and now its out the gate.

Now your safeties have to stay in the center of the field because they have to protect against the seam, which means they're going to be a step or two slow helping on a vertical or something down the sideline. Kinda like the 4th down play against AZ State. Beau and James fly up field, paranoid about Skat. Receiver leaks by and its a huge play.


4. Lastly, in college football, I won't even block that sucker. You know how many rush yards Hansen would have had if defenses lined up in a wide 9? Dude, Stevo or Moore or whomever is slipping up into the B gap, the Tackle just needs to chip or wall off the wide 9, we have a double team on one of your interior tackles play side to LB, the back side guard needs to just not die against the other guy in a one on one, back side tackle can go right now to the 2nd or 3rd level unless that edge is a absolute freak then again, if I just do zone read action that guy has the QB so yeah, tackle straight to the LB. So two of your LB's are dead are covered. Stevo takes the 3rd LB one on one, I like that matchup.

And now, I have Carsen running through the A or B gap, and you're nearest unblocked or unaccounted for defender is either an A) Outside linebacker B) Safety or C) edge rusher who first has to get off a chip by the tackle, then make sure the QB doesn't have the ball so he's not doing crap. Complete non-factor in the run game.

If you wanna line up in a wide 9, I am going to out number you C gap to C gap 6 to 4 before I even count the ball carrier. And F it, if I want to run the quarterback on something like a QB power or Q follow, I now out number you inside 7 to 4. At best, its 6 on 6. BEST CASE and that's if you put all 4 LB's head up to inside the tackle which would be insane because then all I have to do is run speed option at your edge guy and either keep or pitch the ball depending on what he does and your F'ed and completely leveraged. Or jet sweep, etc.

So again, you're giving my 315 pound earth movers a 5 yard start, uncovered, right to the 2nd level + at absolute worst, an even numbers count to running the ball without counting the ball-carrier and more likely, given me an advantage? Dude, that's like letting a semi pull out from the stop light and then try to stand in front of it with your car AFTER it gets moving.

There's a reason almost no one ever does that on a down to down basis in college football. You simply can't watch the NFL and think - oh, that scheme will work. Because, no, no it won't. There might be a play here, or a play there. Sure.

Coverages? Coverages can work because that's about speed, athleticism and zone coverages a thing. But up front?

Give me the absolute best defensive line - peak Georgia from a couple years ago when they had Carter or Alabama when they had Mount Cody. Line them up in the wide 9 against the worst NFL offensive line. And they will die. My point is, there is as much difference between the dudes playing Oline and Dline in the NFL as there is between me and a billionaire. We might be the same species, but that's about it. The NFL is a quarterback driven league. The college game is a running back driven game.

And I've not even got into how the run fits change for the line backers, how they are taught to take on blocks would change, the differences in responsibilities in pass coverage, the problems with how your DL would have to adjust their run fits - these guys were all recruited for this defense. That's not something you can just change. Its hard going from a 4-3 to a 4-2. We don't have the personnel as of today to make a permanent switch to anything. Maybe that changes if we bring in a few more bodies in the portal, etc...but as of 12/30/24? Nope.

I appreciate these comments, one counter I do have is that 90% or greater of the players lined up against ISU won't ever sniff the NFL and at least 1/2 are average to below average players (We don't play UT and OU anymore).

I totally understand your description and the shortcomings of lining up in the wide 9 but what I want to know is how the Vikings are #2 in the NFL against the run, when their two rush ends are usually outside the tackle and TE? Is it just that Minnesota's edge are just the good versus the other elite humans in the NFL?
 
Did you hear the news that a portal DE did not want to visit ISU b/c of the 3 man front? That caught my attention. We don't need to make it harder to recruit d lineman than it already is..
We haven't had a hard time recruiting D linemen? Dom Orange, TO, yes he left but after what, 4 years? McDonald, Lima, etc... we've recruited linemen fine for this scheme.

Some dudes don't want to play in a 4 man front and rather play in a 3 man. Otherwise would like to be the other way around. Some edge rushers want to stand up, others are fine putting their hands in the ground. Some D tackles want to be Warren Sapp and don't want to two gap, etc...

point is its like life. No matter what the scheme, some guys are always going to say "no, I want to Play like X and you want me to play like D"

Just like we might have receivers who don't like the fact that we only use 2, maybe 3 at a time and don't throw it 55 times a game or we ... whatever. Kids are always going to go where they feel like the system is what they want and you are never ever going to be making everyone happy. Cause guess what, say you go to a 4-2-5. Ok, fine, whatever.


Then the kid might say "well, yeah, you run a 4 man front but so does Texas and they offered me too so peace out". So this idea that changing the front makes it easier to recruit D linemen... not so much.
 
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I assume we are after another RB as well?? Sama may be a good candidate to look elsewhere/transfer out and we can bring in someone more able to run between the tackles. Abu should be in a system where his athletic ability in space can be more featured. Is Dylan Lee likely ready for RB2/3?

Now, if Mouser wants to get the RB's more involved in the passing game.. I would love to see Sama featured in that kind of a system, he can make a defender miss on the edge and break big plays.
 
I assume we are after another RB as well?? Sama may be a good candidate to look elsewhere/transfer out and we can bring in someone more able to run between the tackles. Abu should be in a system where his athletic ability in space can be more featured. Is Dylan Lee likely ready for RB2/3?

Now, if Mouser wants to get the RB's more involved in the passing game.. I would love to see Sama featured in that kind of a system, he can make a defender miss on the edge and break big plays.
I don’t see Sama leaving. I think his talents can be used more as a receiving back and jet sweep type like we did with Noel. We can work with him during the off season and make those adjustments.
 
I don’t see Sama leaving. I think his talents can be used more as a receiving back and jet sweep type like we did with Noel. We can work with him during the off season and make those adjustments.

He was out at the slot vs. UCF but that didn't seem to stick even though he had a couple of catches that night.
 
I appreciate these comments, one counter I do have is that 90% or greater of the players lined up against ISU won't ever sniff the NFL and at least 1/2 are average to below average players (We don't play UT and OU anymore).

I totally understand your description and the shortcomings of lining up in the wide 9 but what I want to know is how the Vikings are #2 in the NFL against the run, when their two rush ends are usually outside the tackle and TE? Is it just that Minnesota's edge are just the good versus the other elite humans in the NFL?
Cause most teams don't run the ball in the NFL that well.


Detroit Lions - 144 yards
49ers - Mason, 102 yards
Cardinals =154 yards
Falcons- 158 yards
Packers (190 yards) dived by two = 85.0


Vikings rush defense and bottom 3rd or bottom half teams played is half or slightly over half their schedule.. I'm not saying their rush defense is bad, but you've played a healthy number of teams that can't run the ball. And have struggled other than against the Packers against teams who can.

Lions, 49ers, Cardinals and Falcons combined to average 139.5 yards a game. Those are teams that are more predominantly run heavy.


Jets (31st)
Seattle (30th)
Jacksonville (26th)
Bears (25th) (Twice)
Rams (23rd)
Giants (22nd)
Texans (21st)
Titans (15th)





Even taking in the Packers games, that comes out to 124.6 yards rushing given up per game by Minnesota. That would make them rank 19th in the NFL against the run so bottom half of the league. Adding the colts game is in 116.5 yards per game. Mason obviously is the backup for the 49ers.


So, stats can lie until you look at who you played and when. Take Iowa State's secondary. It was great. IT was really good. But against quarterbacks that I'd say were above average or better...in terms of their ability to throw the ball.

Tech (loss)
Arizona State (loss)
Baylor (win)
Daniels played well, so I guess technically you could count Kansas but I didn't.
And Ward... we won, yes, but its weird in that he elected not to play in the 2nd half

So if you count those two games, we went 2-3 against teams with average to above average college quarterbacks. And went 9-0 against everyone else. We still had an amazing season. And that break down is true for most every team. But that's the danger in saying we were this or we were that.

Army won the award for the best OL in the nation. Could that OL hold up against an SEC, Big 10, Big 12 schedule and still be considered the best in the nation? Probably not.

So if you look at stats, you gotta look at the context behind the statistic, not just the statistic to get the full picture IMO
 
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From a portal departure standpoint, portal closed Dec 28 but exception for teams participating in postseason. Those players can enter up to 5 days after their season ends, so our date to look at is 1/2 to get to without any more defections.

Then it’ll be open again for 10 days in the spring from April 16-25. You hope that is strictly guys who saw the writing on the wall in spring practice and were going to be buried on the depth chart.

So a few more days to get through and we should have a good idea of returning production/talent. Then let’s see what else we can add to this group.

Spring semester starts Jan 21, so I can assume we’d want any adds to be enrolled and a part of the team ahead of that. Next 2-3 weeks would be the timeline for any further adds that will be able to make it through spring camp
 
QB will show slight improvement. Can't get that much better. Fewer pick 6's at least.
WR will be worse. 66% of production is gone.
TE should be better.
LB will be better, but too many open issues. Slow, can't tackle. wrong pursuit angles, can't blitz, injuries.
DB will be worse. Losing a lot of talent. Freyler was the leading tackler.
DL ???? (maybe the most important group next year)

Margins will remain solid - low turnovers and penalties.

Special teams will be underutilized as usual. Few returns, blocks (Porter gone). Decent coverage.

new personnel - fairly weak in new recruits and portal transfers

Close games - we won't get as many last minute wins.

Schedule - harder.

Honestly, 7-5 record would be Ok considering everything.
 
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4-2-5 needs a serious look. They need to seriously look at bringing in some better LB’s. Secondary became shacky as the season went on. As always the OL… Nough said there. Overall we are in decent shape for next season!
Actually it should be 3-4-4. There is what 7-8 quality LBers that return and most of which now have many games of experience.
 
Actually it should be 3-4-4. There is what 7-8 quality LBers that return and most of which now have many games of experience.
Which ones cover the receivers and backs in routes? None have the speed, those receivers will look like randy moss with our backers covering them. We have to have 5 DBs on the field unless we get a backer who has AJ Klein speed.
 
Which ones cover the receivers and backs in routes? None have the speed, those receivers will look like randy moss with our backers covering them. We have to have 5 DBs on the field unless we get a backer who has AJ Klein speed.
Step 1, stop the run. Not many of ISUs opponents go 5 wide. I think our LBers can generally cover most TEs and RBs out of the backfield.
 
See us taking a step back a bit on the win total next year. At Colorado, BYU, and Arizona State will be tough. Plus Kansas is on the schedule and we can’t seem to beat Leipold.
 
See us taking a step back a bit on the win total next year. At Colorado, BYU, and Arizona State will be tough. Plus Kansas is on the schedule and we can’t seem to beat Leipold.
Not sure about BYU, but Kansas, Coloarado and Arizona St. lose a lot of their better players that hurt us this past season. Only the QB from ASU is returning, so that is a plus. No reason with what we have coming back on offense we should not win 2/3 of those games. Heck Sanders might not even be coaching at CU next season with both of this kids graduating this season and on to the NFL.
 
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Not sure about BYU, but Kansas, Coloarado and Arizona St. lose a lot of their better players that hurt us this past season. Only the QB from ASU is returning, so that is a plus. No reason with what we have coming back on offense we should not win 2/3 of those games. Heck Sanders might not even be coaching at CU next season with both of this kids graduating this season and on to the NFL.
I wonder how well Deion can develop players. He didnt have to do a ton with his kids and Hunter already being really good. He has proved me wrong before but i think he will struggle next year
 
Marcus Neal at safety will be a dawg next year.

I'm concerned about DE and the defensive scheme at large. I was confused Heacock didn't change anything 2nd half of the year. Also, which DEs will want to commit to us in a 3-3? You're sort of signing up for a defense that asks you to be blocked by two guys.

You're largely getting guys that are tweeners in a 4 man front. In fact, ISU can make a living getting guys that are otherwise undervalued as DEs in a 4 man front.

Other than McDonald, who was a home run, the handful of elite 4 man front DEs that can rush the passer and hold up in the run game are going to play for the blue bloods. Everybody else is deciding if they want undersized pass rushers or bigger guys that hold up against the run. Then you're also trying to find multiple good interior guys that are tough to find in college.

It's tough because the league is getting more and more power running, which makes the 3-3-5 a bit of a disadvantage. But the 3 man front also lets ISU avoid a little more competition for guys that can fit the ISU front.