Big 12 Conference Realignment
- Thread starter t-noah
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This is 90% Yormark trying to get into New York and basketball. Possibly the 10% is by removing a school ACC would add once they lose Florida State and others. Reading the ACC boards, if they lose Florida State and a few others, they would like to stick together by inviting others. This takes their #1 backfill off the board.
No, not officially they can't. You're 100% correct on that. But you can maybe incite a little unease and urgency that I think can only help down the road, or at least it can't hurt.
OuT set the precedent in this matter and it's only a matter of time, IMHO. Except we get to watch it play out this time, instead of coming in the form of a multiple year backroom backstab like OuT and Sankey pulled off. Still kind of impressive actually.
I think a UConn leak is not necessarily aimed so much at the attracting ACC schools specifically, so much as it is aimed at diminishing the perception of desperation or lack of leverage that the big 12 has (righfully so).
More specifically that we will always be a safety net available by any and to all at any time. Just pick up the phone after being jilted by the real conferences or left at the alter, and we'll take you in no questions asked. We'll even pick up the pieces for you while you tell us how much you don't deserve to be in a dump like the Big 12.
It’s getting closer to them having to make a decision.
Similar to what we did to the Pac12 with adding BYU and flirting with SDSU. We're trying to find our next Colorado, as removing a block for their existing Jenga stack would be the next logical step. There's a proven formula emerging, perhaps.
EDIT:
1)Bonus points because UConn could give the remaining ACC schools a consolation prize in the form of parity with the Big 12 and Big East in basketball overnight, if not arguably instant basketball supremacy over them both.
2)That might matter for something in the ACC, as they arguably lose nothing (except for potential football money which would be unavoidable and they already aren't maximizing anyways) in terms of basketball with the departure FSU and Clemson. For the schools that are content with their current contract, they just have to satisfy the networks to the extent of maintaining the already modest status quo (modest enough that it started this whole problem in its current form).
3) UConn would give BY unquestionable Market-Setter status for independent basketball media rights negotiations. Like it or not, this matters to BY a lot. Hard to argue the networks have to meet you on your terms when they can play an already signed and bundled UConn, Duke, and North Carolina and a very competitive list of 2nd tier schools off you in negotiations for pennies on the dollar compared to what BY would be seeking. The big east and fox are always already cushy as it is.
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Its not about grabbing them NOW, its about shaping their exit strategy and putting pressure on them.
JUST LIKE THE M4.
Say i am Duke or NCST. I am worried what happens when FSU and Clemson bail, which they surely will. Maybe i will get a P2 invite! But what if I dont?? How fked will we be? Will we get Pac12 $20m offer?? What if the other middle teams bail too and i get left behind? What is our contingency plan? Well, Big12 makes money, and i like bball. Maybe we better at least open a discussion there, just in case...
You cant force the issue. But you can plant seeds and and create a viable option.
JUST LIKE THE M4.
Say i am Duke or NCST. I am worried what happens when FSU and Clemson bail, which they surely will. Maybe i will get a P2 invite! But what if I dont?? How fked will we be? Will we get Pac12 $20m offer?? What if the other middle teams bail too and i get left behind? What is our contingency plan? Well, Big12 makes money, and i like bball. Maybe we better at least open a discussion there, just in case...
You cant force the issue. But you can plant seeds and and create a viable option.
We've already played the card where the Big 12 made a financial concession to achieve a strategic objective when we brought the Four Corners schools on board. We cannot afford to do that again. What evidence do we have that keeping UConn away from the ACC as a backfill generates the amount of money spread across 17 (?) teams to be viewed as a smart move for the long term? Their nominal value as a basketball brand does nothing to make this conference more financially viable, and I think the same can be said about any conference's leftover teams once the major brands bail to P2.
This just doesn't work out the way we want it to, over time.
This just doesn't work out the way we want it to, over time.
This potential and likely UConn move to the Big 12 has generated more nervous chatter from ACC school fans about a possible Big 12 lifeboat for them. Duke viewed the Big East as a good lifeboat if the ACC went to Hell. Taking the Big East's best team has them shifting to the Big 12. Syracuse thinks this UConn move is good for them as a bridge from the Big 12 to UConn.
I actually think in the short term, you are 100% correct. But by definition, its tough to say what the value of paradigm disruption is as a rule in any case, and that's what we're poking around at here. It's BY's modus operandi.
I know it's hard to imagine, but I've seen lots of interesting talk that the RELATIVE value of college football is essentially maxed out, as huge as that number currently is.
The demographic shift coming as the boomers age out of the college sports audience window is just not there to sustain the growth we've seen over the past two decades.
I think short term, it's admittedly a terrible move to deal with UConn whatsoever. They are essentially a net negative football wise which currently pays the bills, no doubt.
But you WILL see the relative value of TV contracts pull back even with the big ten and SEC. They won't be crying poverty, no doubt. I'll give you that. But the future demographics have always looked better for basketball with Gen Z and beyond.
There is room for growth there with the youth, as well as internationally. NYC is one of the more international places you could have a presence to boot. Basketball sells with the foreign markets and the youth, just have to figure out the best way to do it like the NBA has. I think that's part of BY's approach I really do. We've already seen some evidence he believes this.
No thanks on UConn. Wait for the ACC to start to break up and get two quality all sport schools then.
How is the big east a good lifeboat for Duke? They don’t have football? If they are willing to get rid of football then that makes some sense and would still be a life boat with or without UConn.
I totally see it as taking away a back fill but that also fills a spot that a better ACC team could take without hurting the overall payouts
Yeah and soccer will be America's most popular sport in 20 years.
Or American football will continue to be #1 by a mile because Americans of all ages love it.
College sports don't sell that well in foreign markets because almost all of those markets have professional versions of the same sport. The g league isn't likely to impact the college ratings in the US but pretty likely that the professional French teams would impact the US college ratings in France.
The last paragraph is the important point.
If you're doing this to dominate college basketball, I guess I can see the strategy though I'm skeptical it's a financial benefit.
If you're doing this to put pressure on the ACC it makes little sense. It's not like you can kick UConn out once ACC teams become available. The more mouths you have to feed, the less realistic you can provide a tv contract that is better than the remaining ACC teams could get on their own.
The Big12 will not stop a 2 teams in its next realignment round. The Big12 will take any and all ACC teams that have more media rights value than Cincy, Houston and UCF.
Would not surprise me if the Big12 doesn't end up at 24 FB schools and 28 all-sports.
I think it will continue to be #1 by a mile.
That's not really the point.
It's more about how hard it is to grow from a starting point of already "#1 by a mile."
Especially when it's #1 by a mile with the only audience that gives a crap about American football, let alone college football.
Let alone college football in a conference made up of small college towns in flyover country.
I do agree that college sports don't sell well in foreign markets. But CFB has no chance compared to MBB. We are also talking about improving viewership from Cincy and ISU football numbers.
The bar to do that isn't nearly as high as I think you think it is.
Well almost all the ACC teams have more value than those 3 schools, not a great bar to set. 28 schools for all sports would be wild
I don't want Big 12 to be in a rush to expand, adding members just to add them. I'm sure a strategy to get UConn is more than just growing membership for its own sake, but it's OK to stay at 16 for a while.
Sometimes circumstances are forced upon you. If ESPN decides not to renew its ACC deal in 2027, then Yormark needs to have a vision now what a P3 Conference landscape looks like.
Plus, it may take a few years for UConn hoops to exit the Big East without penalty. I haven't seen if the Big East signed a new TV deal yet.
They just did 3 months ago.
Also the Big12 is in a very different position now and many are still acting like it’s a couple years ago. If the ACC dies the schools that don’t get a SEC/Big ten invite will be begging to come to the Big12. You’re in the position of power in that area
Yes, football would suffer. All their other sports, culture, and geography are aligned with the Big East, way more than the Big 12. Possible thinking is that Notre Dame may park their programs in the Big East also. Duke-Notre Dame would be a yearly game and they would then have to find other schools.
