Bracketology 2024

[CascadeClone]

I don't think we will get a 1 seed. If we get a 2 seed in the Midwest or West I will be happy. Just don't put us as the 2 seed in the East. Playing UCONN in Boston would not be great. Especially since UCONN has know for quite awhile now they were heading to Boston and I'm sure have ate up most of the tickets.

Looking at it all, and doing my own partial bracketology- averaging the KPI and SOR as per Marmot's correlation info.

The top 3 are pretty obvious. The next 3 UNC, ISU, Tenn are all VERY close. Then there is a pretty decent gap to auburn, illinois, arizona, and baylor - who are also very close.

I don't think ISU will go east with UConn. UConn will be the overall #1 seed - they won their tournament and look the part. Purdue lost in the semi's, I think people don't quite trust them. And Houston is a little dinged and looked vulnerable last night.

S-curve would mean the 8th overall seed "should" get UConn. ISU won't be 8th and highly doubt even 7th.

So if no UConn in East, and can't get Houston in South...

A) West as a 1 with UNC as the 2 (or reversed) 80% chance
B) Midwest with Purdue 20% chance (if Tenn gets the 2 in the west)

Edit- fly in ointment could be Arizona. I suppose if they get jumped up a out of that third tier group, AND stay west that could dump us to 7th, but even then there is a chance they put Tenn in the south and ISU in the midwest.

 

[twincyties]

So there is no s-curve in the sense of seeding 1-16 into brackets. But they seed 1-4 into regions. After that they will seed 5-8 based on geography, if there are no conflicts based on schedule/conference/venue the five seed goes to its closest geographic region. So if Detroit is open for ISU, UT, or Marquette they will take the 2 seed there. If it's not open it goes to the next closest. For ISU that's Dallas, but we cannot go to Dallas, so we go east to Boston.

I hope that helps

That part makes sense but the question is whether or not all 2 seeds are considered equal and it’s purely geography or if it’s difference between first, second, third, fourth 2 seed.

And if it’s geographic that gets really complicated. Like is is Arizona closest to LA, Marquette closest to Detroit and iSU can’t go south so they’re easy?

Or is it (potentially) ISU is best 2 seed so they get closest eligible region?

 

[heitclone]

The pod system has been around for decades, for the first two games, geography and region are meaningless. Seeing ppl all over social media hoping for a two seed to stay in Omaha that must have just started watching the sport.

 

[mcharlet]

No thanks. Don't want to see BYU in the sweet 16 game.

View attachment 125759

SIAP but Palm!!

#1 seed is great, but I don’t think we can play BYU in S16 without breaking a rarely broken rule(we played them 2 times in reg season, although BYU gets preference for Thursday games). Don’t think Palm recognizes those in his bracket.

 

[mctallerton]

That part makes sense but the question is whether or not all 2 seeds are considered equal and it’s purely geography or if it’s difference between first, second, third, fourth 2 seed.

And if it’s geographic that gets really complicated. Like is is Arizona closest to LA, Marquette closest to Detroit and iSU can’t go south so they’re easy?

Or is it (potentially) ISU is best 2 seed so they get closest eligible region?

They are not equal, they are ranked 5-8 for seeding purposes in terms of determining the order of placing them.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

#1 seed is great, but I don’t think we can play BYU in S16 without breaking a rarely broken rule(we played them 2 times in reg season, although BYU gets preference for Thursday games). Don’t think Palm recognizes those in his bracket.

Assuming the Big 12 gets 9 bids, that matchup can happen.

 

[mctallerton]

#1 seed is great, but I don’t think we can play BYU in S16 without breaking a rarely broken rule(we played them 2 times in reg season, although BYU gets preference for Thursday games). Don’t think Palm recognizes those in his bracket.

I think because we only played them twice we could meet in the sweet sixteen, three times would be elite 8, once would be second round.

 

[RedDog]

 

[CycloneSpinning]

Looking at it all, and doing my own partial bracketology- averaging the KPI and SOR as per Marmot's correlation info.

I don't think ISU will go east with UConn. UConn will be the overall #1 seed - they won their tournament and look the part. Purdue lost in the semi's, I think people don't quite trust them. And Houston is a little dinged and looked vulnerable last night.

S-curve would mean the 8th overall seed "should" get UConn. ISU won't be 8th and highly doubt even 7th.

So if no UConn in East, and can't get Houston in South...

A) West as a 1 with UNC as the 2 (or reversed) 80% chance
B) Midwest with Purdue 20% chance (if Tenn gets the 2 in the west)

I thought that too, but I think they are going to want to keep 2 seeds as close to home as they can as well…which means Arizona in the West. I believe it’s East or Midwest for us if we are a 2.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Assuming the Big 12 gets 9 bids, that matchup can happen.

Could be close on that one with Oklahoma so close to the cutoff

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I need some of you worry warts to explain the Neb in Omaha worry. Why? Haven’t those games been sold out for awhile? Iowa state fans have been buying up tickets for weeks.

It’s crazy to see we are no worse than a 2 and there are this many people scared of ******* Nebraska.

Kansas fans hold a lot of those tickets too and they will flood the market with them once they know they aren’t playing in Omaha.

 

[stateofmind]

I'm in the minority, I assume, that I don't want a 1 seed. I don't want the talking heads bashing us and watching Cyclone twitter-verse argue with them non-stop. I'd rather be a 2 with a chip on our shoulder and positive talk.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

WE WILL BE IN OMAHA NO MATTER WHAT.

Omaha Massachusetts?

 

[Pope]

For what it's worth (probably not much), Joe Lunardi just said on the CBS college basketball show that he doubts Iowa State will be a 1 seed because there's never been a 1 seed with a noncon schedule as weak as ours.

 

[dahliaclone]

 

[twincyties]

Can people post a link to some definitive source on how this works? Clear half the people on here are wrong and half are right.

 

[CascadeClone]

Geography and avoiding regular season rematches in round 1 (and round 2 unless there's absolutely no other option) is the priority. 5-16 seed S-Curve is not a thing.

Are you sure? The blurb you posted earlier made it sound like it was still a thing- that's what they did first. Then they were allowed to make geographic allowances if wanted, but not same-conference allowances. At least that was how I interpreted it. What I found online says same.

But you are obv doing 100x more of this than I am, so you're the expert.

 

[mctallerton]

Can people post a link to some definitive source on how this works? Clear half the people on here are wrong and half are right.

Hope this helps

 

[NorthCyd]

Can people post a link to some definitive source on how this works? Clear half the people on here are wrong and half are right.

It doesn't get any more definitive than this...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...ns-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season?amp

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

For what it's worth (probably not much), Joe Lunardi just said on the CBS college basketball show that he doubts Iowa State will be a 1 seed because there's never been a 1 seed with a noncon schedule as weak as ours.

Which is an insanely stupid f*cking comment/observation. Gonzaga has had multiple 1 seeds and plays a complete dog nuts conference slate. The whole non con SOS point is so worthless when you play in the toughest league in the country. Schools like Arizona and UNC have multiple go through the motions conference opponents, we had zero.