Bracketology 2024

[SolterraCyclone]

Here's my updated bracket for March 4 following this weekend's games.

View attachment 124927

• I have Iowa State as my final 2-seed now. Although if you look at the path it creates of Gonzaga/Creighton/Purdue, some might prefer Baylor or Kansas 3-seed path instead. Gonzaga in the 2nd round would be a nightmare scenario.
• A bracketing rule for those who are unaware, any school from the same conference in the top-16 MUST be kept in different regions. This is the number 1 priority when the committee builds the bracket. This year in the top 16, there's a good chance you'll have four Big 12 teams, four SEC teams (with Kentucky improved play of late), and three Big East teams. That's 11 of 16 spots, which creates some complicated bracketing procedures at times. I originally had Iowa State as the 2-seed in the East, as they get "last priority" of the 2-seeds for region as they're ranked #8 in my seed list. But due to complications of then placing Creighton, Kansas, and Baylor into regions as 3-seeds, I had to shuffle where the 2-seeds were going.
  1. I believe this process is basically done by a computer program when the committee builds the bracket, but it's something to consider when you look at bracket projections online. Committee priority for placing teams is as follows:
     1. Teams from the same conference in the top 16 must be in different regions
     2. Distance to regional sites
     3. Regional balance from a competitive standpoint (AKA: S-curve seed list)
• Building the 4/5 pods for me today took entirely too long. Why? BYU! Because BYU cannot (or better said, will not) play on Sundays, they have to be in the West or East regional. They also have to be in the Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Omaha, or Pittsburgh first weekend pods. That creates a difficult situation, especially with my current seed list where I have 3 SEC teams as 4-seeds and South Carolina as a 5-seed AND having only one Thursday/Saturday site in the 4-5 pods.
  • I ended up having to switch Auburn from Salt Lake City pod to Spokane pod even though they are closer to SLC.
  • I also had to be okay with a potential Clemson/Alabama regular season rematch in round 2 rather than a potential conference rematch with South Carolina.
  • I also had to be okay with BYU going to Salt Lake City and potentially having a huge homecourt advantage over the higher-seeded Kentucky in round 2. Imagine this scenario. We'd never hear the end of it from Calipari.
  • Because of BYU's setup, don't be surprised on Selection Sunday if they get moved down a seed line if need be in order to make sure they get into a Thursday/Saturday setup. This is a last resort for the committee, but if it's easier to solve their "we don't play on Sundays" situation this way rather than moving a bunch of other teams around, they'll do it. This is what occurred in 2012 when BYU was in the First Four and BYU/Iona were seeded as a 14-seed to make it work.
• With Marquette being without Kolek for at least the next two games (vs. UConn, at Xavier), it's possible Iowa State could/will pass them if ISU wins both games this week.
• 26 through 38 on my seed list is incredibly close right now. I could see any of those teams being seeded anywhere on the 7-8-9-10 line, which feels a bit abnormal for this late in the year.

Whoa the committee can’t put BYU in Salt Lake just because they won’t play on Sundays. You can’t do that to Kentucky. Bump them down as many seed lines as needed.

If it worked out that way organically, then fine. But you can’t have a top-16 seed get screwed like that cause a 5-seed won’t play on Sundays.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Whoa the committee can’t put BYU in Salt Lake just because they won’t play on Sundays. You can’t do that to Kentucky. Bump them down as many seed lines as needed.

If it worked out that way organically, then fine. But you can’t have a top-16 seed get screwed like that cause a 5-seed won’t play on Sundays.

Poor, poor disadvantaged Kentucky. I'll feel real bad for them if that happens. Hate to see the underdog get screwed....

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Poor, poor disadvantaged Kentucky. I'll feel real bad for them if that happens. Hate to see the underdog get screwed....

Well I only used Kentucky, because that’s who is mocked there. Replace Kentucky with whoever, that team would have a legitimate gripe

 

[NiceMarmot]

Whoa the committee can’t put BYU in Salt Lake just because they won’t play on Sundays. You can’t do that to Kentucky. Bump them down as many seed lines as needed.

If it worked out that way organically, then fine. But you can’t have a top-16 seed get screwed like that cause a 5-seed won’t play on Sundays.

Last year, 1-seed Houston had to play 9-seed Auburn in Birmingham. In 2017, 2-seed Duke had to play 7-seed South Carolina in Greenville. Top 4-seeds are only protected in the 1st round; there are no protections in the 2nd round. They will try to avoid it, but sometimes it happens.

From their principles and procedures guide, "To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round."

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Last year, 1-seed Houston had to play 9-seed Auburn in Birmingham. In 2017, 2-seed Duke had to play 7-seed South Carolina in Greenville. Top 4-seeds are only protected in the 1st round; there are no protections in the 2nd round. They will try to avoid it, but sometimes it happens.

My counter would be those situations happened organically, not because one team has special rules it won’t play on Sunday

 

[Cyowa 14]

Whoa the committee can’t put BYU in Salt Lake just because they won’t play on Sundays. You can’t do that to Kentucky. Bump them down as many seed lines as needed.

If it worked out that way organically, then fine. But you can’t have a top-16 seed get screwed like that cause a 5-seed won’t play on Sundays.

They can and they will im afraid. I'm not one to say somebodys religion is wrong but I can find it in the Bible that it's perfectly fine to work on Sundays if BYU wants me to lol

 

[NoCreativity]

Any chance of a Drake vs Iowa play-in game if Drake doesn't win MVC Tourney?

Drake actually has a slightly better resume than in 2021 when they got an at-large bid. I think they are still very much alive.

 

[NoCreativity]

No but it steals a bid from a bubble team.

Not necessarily, Indiana State only has 1 Quad 1 win the entire year. It would be very close but I could see the loser of that game being sent to Dayton or completely out and in the NIT.

 

[qwerty]

Can someone explain to me how / why Michigan State is getting so much love?

Against Quad 1: 4-8
Top 25 NET wins: #13 Baylor
Top 25 NET Losses: #2 Purdue, #4 Arizona, #10 Duke, #15 Illinois, #23 Wisconsin (twice),
Other Losses: @ #43 Nebraska, #52 James Madison, @ #53 Northwestern, #57 Iowa, #59 Ohio State, @ #77 Minnesota,

According to them that is only one bad loss as any loss to a B1G team is justifiable since the league is so tough.

 

[qwerty]

Oh, the irony if UNI were to do that.

UNIS: University of Northern Iowa South (or Stolen) as in stolen recruits

 

[gipper2001]

Here's my current Top 16:

1. Houston
2. Purdue
3. UCONN
4. Tennessee

5. Arizona
6. North Carolina
7. Iowa State
8. Creighton

9. Baylor
10. Duke
11. Marquette
12. Kansas

13. Alabama
14. Auburn
15. Illinois
16. Kentucky

And by region:

South

1. Houston
2. Creighton
3. Duke
4. Auburn

Midwest

1. Purdue
2. Iowa State
3. Marquette
4. Kentucky

East

1. UCONN
2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Alabama

West

1. Tennessee
2. Arizona
3. Baylor
4. Illinois

 

[clone37]

I hope like hell, as we all do, that we get placed in Omaha. However, getting to Omaha is far from a sweet 16 guarantee. Look no further than 2 years ago in Milwaukee. Completely outmanned but super hungry Iowa State handily beats Wisconsin to advance.

 

[madguy30]

I hope like hell, as we all do, that we get placed in Omaha. However, getting to Omaha is far from a sweet 16 guarantee. Look no further than 2 years ago in Milwaukee. Completely outmanned but super hungry Iowa State handily beats Wisconsin to advance.

I wouldn't go that far.

WI didn't like getting guarded and hadn't really been for about 2 months.

 

[dsreid]

Anyone understand how the sessions go in Omaha? West games vs Midwest games in which sessions? Guessing they don't announce which matches in which session til TV times are announced?

I can make the Thursday game but likely not the Saturday... looking to buy a couple tickets.

 

[NoCreativity]

Anyone understand how the sessions go in Omaha? West games vs Midwest games in which sessions? Guessing they don't announce which matches in which session til TV times are announced?

I can make the Thursday game but likely not the Saturday... looking to buy a couple tickets.

They won't announce the times and sessions until late that evening on Selection Sunday.

 

[dafarmer]

Ball washers sure trying to get Duke and North Carolina as 2 seeds and I’m sure they’d have a circle jerk if they could have them both 1’s.

 

[cykadelic2]

Anyone understand how the sessions go in Omaha? West games vs Midwest games in which sessions? Guessing they don't announce which matches in which session til TV times are announced?

I can make the Thursday game but likely not the Saturday... looking to buy a couple tickets.

If KU is also at Omaha, ISU likely plays in the afternoon session due to KU’s pull for higher TV ratings in the evening session.

 

[dsreid]

If KU is also at Omaha, ISU likely plays in the afternoon session due to KU’s pull for higher TV ratings in the evening session.

Guess we will see how this week turns out, assuming if KU loses to Houston they drop some more. If not they likely lock in the 3

 

[dahliaclone]

This makes my hair hurt. I know rankings and resumes are totally different. But at this point of the season don't you think that both rankings/resumes would align a little more than some of these teams?

First image is their current Top 25. Second image is their current bracket.

They rank Kansas #16...but they are a 2 seed.

That makes zero sense to me. Maybe they're trying to predict what the committee will do.

 

[drmwevr08]

Last year, 1-seed Houston had to play 9-seed Auburn in Birmingham. In 2017, 2-seed Duke had to play 7-seed South Carolina in Greenville. Top 4-seeds are only protected in the 1st round; there are no protections in the 2nd round. They will try to avoid it, but sometimes it happens.

From their principles and procedures guide, "To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round."

If it's happening that infrequently, they can do better. Take those couple instances and move those higher seeds literally anywhere else.