Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Cyched]

Nothing screams Atlantic Coast quite like the Cal/Stanford duo

 

[isucy86]

One super conference just isn’t going to happen. We are already seeing Fox and ESPN being tapped out of money. They can’t just double the money for the top schools to join one conference. They still have a lot of slots to fill and sports is what fills it. College football won’t be nearly as popular if only 20 or whatever teams are the only ones who matter, and not 70+.

I agree more schools is better for college football. But, there is a believe fans want elite events.

I don't feel ESPN & FOX are limited by running out of money as much as advertisers are going to need to be stepped up over time from college football rates and ad rates that are a multiplier.

There's a pretty big gap between CFB media rights and NFL media rights. Some entity or person is going to promote the idea of a college football super league of 30-40 schools.

Not saying it's a good idea, but Greg Norman was able to convince some top golfers to join LIV. If Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, USC, etc. feel they can join an CFB Super League and TV $ are a significant multiplier of what they make today, some schools will jump.

 

[Triggermv]

 

[MeowingCows]

Nothing screams Atlantic Coast quite like the Cal/Stanford duo

I can't figure out if it would even work. ACC would be having to take less money per school (?) to add two teams which case an extreme expense both for them and teams playing them. Operating costs for the two schools go up by millions both for money sports and olympic ones.

If I'm FSU, CLEM, UNC, etc., why do I even bother agreeing to let them in and lose money in the process? It doesn't help anyone with one foot already out of the ACC doorway. Stanford might be better off going independent and trying to source their own gig... Cal, with their immense debt, is probably screwed.

 

[isucy86]

Cal has huge payments, like 18m per year just for interest, which is set to increase in the next couple years. Mostly due to the renovations and retrofitting for earth quakes on their stadium.

Iowa is well known to spend out of their means...then try to get out of paying for it after the fact. Its surprising the BOR continues to let them get away with it.

My guess is all of the schools recently completed a major stadium/arena build or remodel. No different than a mortgage on a house- as long as there are cash flows to support that debt.

I wouldn't worry about Iowa, especially with CFP money about to explode. Conversely, any Pac4 schools could have a major issue if they end up in G5.

 

[ISpyCy]

Oh FFS.

 

[simply1]

https://www.theolympian.com/sports/article278008498.html

 

[cyclonemagic]

I think the cracks might start to show if the next B10 deal (2030?) isn’t richer than the current, and will pick up speed if the SEC’s isn’t (2034?). It’s Important to note, I don’t believe either conference has a GOR.

The 2020 article appearing in Forbes suggests that we have already hit "peak football" about 10 years ago. Viewership, game attendance, and participation in football is declining at all levels - youth, high school, college, and professional. This does not bode well for growing TV deals. Perhaps a Super Conference will insulate some programs from this trend (?).

The Decline Of Football Is Real And It’s Accelerating

 

[ianoconnor]

 

[HoopsTournament]

Nope. Because at some point these national brand football teams will withdraw from the ncaa and form their own independent league where they control their own rules, including payment of players in salary (not in form of NIL or scholarships). ESPN, Fox, NBC will work together with this new league, much like the NFL. The league will have their own commissioner, just like the NFL.

Why? Money. Networks know viewership will be sky high if **each week** there would be headline games such as Ohio State vs Georgia, Texas vs Alabama, Michigan vs. Clemson, Michigan vs Florida State. Teams would be willing to join this new league for money and prestige.

Will this happen? We don’t know for sure. But I can say what the Big 10 and SEC have now isn’t sustainable. Teams like Mizzou, Vandy, the entire Big 10 west, etc., won’t be included in this new league (well, possibly Nebraska from the big 10 west)

Edit: I know you think that’s funny, Gonzo, but people would had laughed 15 years ago if you said the Big 10 would stretch from LA to New Jersey.

Viewership might be high to begin with, but it will go down over time. It is not a sustainable system. It’s just common sense.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Exactly. But look at the events in the last 15 years. Every single realignment has involved “national brands”. The trend has been to consolidate these national brands towards one conference. We are nearly there

At some point, Michigan, Ohio State. USCLA, Oregon, Washington will look at teams like Illinois and ask themselves what value are they bringing to the conference? That has happened in the Big 12, ACC, Pac 12, and Big East.

We can’t fully predict the future. But we can look at the past and project what may happen based on the events that transpired

Brainwashed Media talking point. Rinse and repeat.

 

[HoopsTournament]

But it could if they work collectively, like the NFL

But it will always be an inferior product to the NFL. You already have the NFL. Trying to recreate it has always failed time and time again.

 

[MuskieCy]

Apparently this is a Utah State "offensive" hand sign.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Here is what I think you arent getting.

So lets say the next round, the media partners are saying well we paid too much last time, so even with rising costs and inflation, we are going to offer, either the same or maybe a little less for the next deal. In the SEC and B1G.

At the same time they start telling the Alabamas, and the Ohio States of the world, they will give them double to leave and create a new league, hell even if its not a super conference, just a new conference in the same system, but with all bluebloods, making 200M per year.

Are you telling me that schools like Michigan, and Georgia are going to say naw we good making half that in the B1G...because...loyalty, history, or everything else that has been completely thrown out the window over the last couple decades?

That is how I see it being possible. First the media partners offer the big dogs to create a new conference. Then down the road that conference brakes away at some point.

Again this is just a possible scenario, but a scenario that at least makes the idea plausible.

And if they do that they are short-sighted for all the reasons being mentioned. It is possible that TV execs are that dumb. But I think many are smart enough to realize that contracting the market will harm their product. They need the have nots to keep the re it’s of the powers inflated. Otherwise, the system will collapse on itself. It’s basic math.

 

[HoopsTournament]

superconference will still have bottom feeders.

Means you have Blue Bloods and Psuedo Blue Bloods and Non-Blue Bloods

and all of the Psuedos and Nons think they are Blue Bloods.

However, they will try this new Era for a while until change becomes profitable again.

The powers that be, want to fix the game to have the Blue Bloods in the final four or 8 or 12 of any CFP.

Can’t do it in Basketball, but you can sure stack the field in Football by giving multiple entries to top 2-3 conferences and keeping bottom feeders around. Regular season wins translates to higher CFP appearances.

Stack the deck and it will work in your favor.

Some are arguing that super leagues will NOT have bottom feeders. That all the top dogs will break off and just play each other.

This will just create new bottom feeders, but will also alienate half of CFB fans.

What you are suggesting is different.

I agree with you.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

Some are arguing that super leagues will NOT have bottom feeders. That all the top dogs will break off and just play each other.

This will just create new bottom feeders, but will also alienate half of CFB fans.

What you are suggesting is different.

I agree with you.

I will spend exactly none of my time worrying about any of this. It makes no sense, so talking about it or surmising how it might work is not interesting to me…but I also have zero control over it, so it’s literally a completely fruitless endeavor.

 

[Cloneon]

But that hasn’t been the case, that’s just the way you choose to see it. There is no push towards one conference. There is a push to get the value you need to survive. That’s why the LA schools left. It’s not about a desire to have only one conference. Plus the money has a limit. All these insane facilities have been built with the prior media deals. Now that those deals are doubling or more at some point you just don’t need the extra money that badly. Does the AD still want it sure. But with the diminishing returns it won’t cause a conference as old and steady as the big ten to break down over a couple extra million. The presidents would never agree to it.

For the most part I agree, however, every major super power in history has succumbed to over extended or prematurely extended supply lines.

 

[Cloneon]

I don't get the super conference argument. 9 game season + 3/? game CFP. I'll bet the bulk of revenue come from the rivalry games, the CCG and the CFP. In fact, much more than a whole season of a super conference. The reason is simple: the comprehensive viewership is because a ton of teams started the season with that hope, which then ended up with conference loyalty, which then ended up with eventual champion. There's a diminishing point of return with too many powerful teams in one conference which becomes apparent when you look at the fandom equation for the bulk of the money.

 

[MisterO]

A super conference is the final play, which, ultimately will benefit Iowa State. Here’s what I see:

Eventually, the Alabamas of the world will believe there is an even bigger pile of money waiting for them if they didn’t have to play (ie ‘carry’) the Mizzous and the Vanderbilts of the world.

All they need is the biggest 12-16 biggest brands from the old Power 5 and it’s a done deal. Guarantee this happens within the next 10 years.

Here’s my likely suspects of the Top 12
Alabama
LSU
Georgia
Florida St
Clemson
Oregon
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Texas
Oklahoma
Penn State

The 4 maybes to get to 16: (mostly due to their historical success and not necessarily recent success):
Nebraska
Miami
Tennessee
Auburn


Good news: No one from the current B12 would be remotely considered and we would only add more teams for our own conference.

I think this happens- money and greed are inevitable in this game.

* Edit- what do you want to bet the serial conference ruiners from Austin lead the way on this?

 

[Cyhig]

Ouch that’s no fun.

Here’s the thing though, those teams only left when they were given no other option. They stayed loyal till it was clear there was no deal at all to be had. Which is also kind of insane because 6 of the ten are getting paid 30mil per year, add in the LA schools and you have a deal worth the same or more as the Big12. If the PAC had competent leadership they would be intact.

Now look at the SEC. Those schools like bama and Georgia could have jumped to the big ten to make more money. By your logic they would have. But guess what, they don’t leave because the extra money isn’t worth the hassle and breaking of tradition. Same reason the big ten schools wouldn’t leave to pursue a couple extra million that they don’t need.

Ucla USC left when they had options. Texas OU left when they had options.

These national brands were in 5 conferences. They are now in 3, but the national brands in the ACC are not happy. The trend shows we are getting closer and closer to all the national brands into 1 conference