Don’t care if we’re spoilers but we have a TON riding on a strong finish. From what I hear, there is a lot of recruiting impact based on how we finish, and not just with future recruits but current commits.
Cyclones to be spoilers?
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
It starts with OU and I am really glad it does. I sincerely believe we beat OU. And I don't think the game will be a nail-biter either. I would not be surprised if it's closer to an ass-beating than a tight game.
We don't have much choice this season, bro! It's cheer for the Cyclones and be a spoiler, or whine. We know which one you prefer.
I know we like to make ourselves feel better with the losing margin stats, but how many of those games did we have a lead? I'd be more interested in how many minutes in those games we were tied or leading compared to minutes losing. Losing "close" comes in many forms, but I suspect those games weren't as close as it sounds.
Not exactly what you were looking for, but Post Game Win Expectancy tells how likely a win was given the per-play stats that were generated. This is from the same guy that does SP+ for ESPN. Basically says "if this game was played a million billion times and the same stats were generated each time, how often does your team win the game?" Also uses the simulation to create an adjusted margin that can be compared to the actual margin. All of this is calculated using the same stats that go into calculating SP+.
2022 SP+
Using PGWE, ISU has only really been close against Baylor (40% PGWE, -2.0 adj margin - a toss up). In our other 3 losses, PGWE was less than 17% and the adj margins are between -7.8 and -18.6.
Exactly. Yes, we lost to KSU by 1. But they had a 99% post game win expectancy. We could've won, maybe even should have, but it was an anomaly.Not exactly what you were looking for, but Post Game Win Expectancy tells how likely a win was given the per-play stats that were generated. This is from the same guy that does SP+ for ESPN. Basically says "if this game was played a million billion times and the same stats were generated each time, how often does your team win the game?" Also uses the simulation to create an adjusted margin that can be compared to the actual margin. All of this is calculated using the same stats that go into calculating SP+.
2022 SP+
docs.google.com
Using PGWE, ISU has only really been close against Baylor (40% PGWE, -2.0 adj margin - a toss up). In our other 3 losses, PGWE was less than 17% and the adj margins are between -7.8 and -18.6.
It is very scary, because if that happens, the death spiral has started.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Jason Hammond decommits. No inside info. Just a hunch.
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