Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Clonedogg

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Its not just that, its comparing what the Big12 is making NOW in Current deal, with what the Big 10 is expected to make at the END of their NEXT deal, after an EXPECTED playoff expansion.

Not a fair comparison. Its just like the navigate model that gives everyone $15+/- bump for the playoff expansion in 2 years except the Big 12, because I guess all the other conferences will get a playoff bump but the B12.

You have to compare apples to apples.
I think there is no 'bump' in that model for the Big12, because that is when OuT is slated to leave. So it ends up being kind of a wash. More money from playoff minus less TV money from lack of OuT. Not 100% but I think that's the explanation I came up with when I looked at that a while ago.
 
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NorthCyd

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I stream and cut the cord about 7 years ago, so my perspective may be different. I just don't see the need for a 24/7 channel for the Big12 in 2022 and beyond.

There are so many ways to push content whether it be a subscription platform, YouTube, or Apps.

Unfortunately the current Big12 is a niche conference. By that I mean, the current 10 teams are located in 5 states. With 80% of Big12 schools from 3 states.

Compare that to the other P5 conferences in 2022:
  • Big10: 14 teams/11 states
  • SEC: 14 teams/11 states
  • ACC: 14 teams/9 states
  • Pac12: 12 teams/6 states
In the future the Big12 bumps to 12 teams in 8 states, a much more diverse base. But will still pale the Big10 & SEC which will be in 12 states- minimum.
I'm not sure comparing states is all that meaningful. States vary a lot in size and population. Texas is over 4 times the size of an average state both in area and population.
 
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Cloneon

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I'm not sure comparing states is all that meaningful. States vary a lot in size and population. Texas is over 4 times the size of an average state both in area and population.
That, and we've already established some states are more prone to be viewers than others (see CA)
 

RustShack

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I stream and cut the cord about 7 years ago, so my perspective may be different. I just don't see the need for a 24/7 channel for the Big12 in 2022 and beyond.

There are so many ways to push content whether it be a subscription platform, YouTube, or Apps.

Unfortunately the current Big12 is a niche conference. By that I mean, the current 10 teams are located in 5 states. With 80% of Big12 schools from 3 states.

Compare that to the other P5 conferences in 2022:
  • Big10: 14 teams/11 states
  • SEC: 14 teams/11 states
  • ACC: 14 teams/9 states
  • Pac12: 12 teams/6 states
In the future the Big12 bumps to 12 teams in 8 states, a much more diverse base. But will still pale the Big10 & SEC which will be in 12 states- minimum.

Add the corner four and we are in 10 while B1G SEC are in 12. Then when the ACC gets raided we add more as well.
 
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Yellow Snow

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You are still comparing money from now/beginning of a what our next contract may be, to what the END of the Big 10s contract is expected to be with the playoff expansion bump.

If you compare the starting Big 10 to our starting contract they probably arent going to be that far apart. both should have similar bumps from the playoff, and then it just depends on how much growth the contract has. I dont think the Big 12 will have as much growth as the Big 10 but you cant compare expected beginning money in the B12 to the expected ending money in 8 years for the B10.
I hope you are right, but our current TV contract was negotiated WITH OU and Texas in the conference. That helps what we are getting now.

Next negotiation will be without them. You act like this is in a vacuum. "Well, we get X amount of money now, and with inflation or whatever, we'll get more next time." I don't believe it will work that way.

I think last year we made high 30 million range from TV, and with bowl payouts, etc. it went to 44 ish million. I'd be pleasantly surprised if (without adding schools from PAC) we match that the next time around.

Like I said... I hope you are correct.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I hope you are right, but our current TV contract was negotiated WITH OU and Texas in the conference. That helps what we are getting now.

Next negotiation will be without them. You act like this is in a vacuum. "Well, we get X amount of money now, and with inflation or whatever, we'll get more next time." I don't believe it will work that way.

I think last year we made high 30 million range from TV, and with bowl payouts, etc. it went to 44 ish million. I'd be pleasantly surprised if (without adding schools from PAC) we match that the next time around.

Like I said... I hope you are correct.
Bowlsby corrected himself after he talked to the Texas legislature (he went high to try to scare them from leaving with the half media). After he had a chance to talk around and check things out, he announced that OuT leaving would cut the payouts 5MM/year. The big 12 contract was slightly back loaded and we are projected to go from 42 MM last year to 44 this year and 46 next year. That is projections. We were projected to be 40 last year and surpassed it by 2MM.
 

AlaCyclone

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I stream and cut the cord about 7 years ago, so my perspective may be different. I just don't see the need for a 24/7 channel for the Big12 in 2022 and beyond.

There are so many ways to push content whether it be a subscription platform, YouTube, or Apps.

Unfortunately the current Big12 is a niche conference. By that I mean, the current 10 teams are located in 5 states. With 80% of Big12 schools from 3 states.

Compare that to the other P5 conferences in 2022:
  • Big10: 14 teams/11 states
  • SEC: 14 teams/11 states
  • ACC: 14 teams/9 states
  • Pac12: 12 teams/6 states
In the future the Big12 bumps to 12 teams in 8 states, a much more diverse base. But will still pale the Big10 & SEC which will be in 12 states- minimum.
Appreciate your response. It's fair.

I just think that the Big Xii would be better off with a Big Xii Network that was accessible though DirecTV, Cable, etc. like the SEC, B1G and ACC Networks than not. It's not a cure all (see Pac), but I think it would help with natonal branding and just be fun to watch as a fan of a Big Xii school.

One day! Maybe once OuT are gone, and the Big Xii adds BYU / AAC schools and hopefully the Four Corner Schools, this will happen.

Let's Go State!
 

AuH2O

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Appreciate your response. It's fair.

I just think that the Big Xii would be better off with a Big Xii Network that was accessible though DirecTV, Cable, etc. like the SEC, B1G and ACC Networks than not. It's not a cure all (see Pac), but I think it would help with natonal branding and just be fun to watch as a fan of a Big Xii school.

One day! Maybe once OuT are gone, and the Big Xii adds BYU / AAC schools and hopefully the Four Corner Schools, this will happen.

Let's Go State!
I think those networks don’t do a thing for National branding. Look at viewers even on Big 10 network. All those networks it is basically just fans of those schools that watch them. Big 10 network worked simply because they had enough people in their market that scream if their cable and sat carrier didn’t have it.
Now I would like it, but I don’t think anybody outside of big 12 teams will watch it.
 

WhoISthis

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I hope you are right, but our current TV contract was negotiated WITH OU and Texas in the conference. That helps what we are getting now.

Next negotiation will be without them. You act like this is in a vacuum. "Well, we get X amount of money now, and with inflation or whatever, we'll get more next time." I don't believe it will work that way.

I think last year we made high 30 million range from TV, and with bowl payouts, etc. it went to 44 ish million. I'd be pleasantly surprised if (without adding schools from PAC) we match that the next time around.

Like I said... I hope you are correct.

The main risk is if there are no longer prime viewing windows available after consolidation, not necessarily that top new Big 12 games can’t draw well enough if given the spot.

Imo the most damaging part of consolidation isn’t losing the brands, it’s that the networks are financing the moves by basically paying to fill all their time slots in advance
 

WhoISthis

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I think those networks don’t do a thing for National branding. Look at viewers even on Big 10 network. All those networks it is basically just fans of those schools that watch them. Big 10 network worked simply because they had enough people in their market that scream if their cable and sat carrier didn’t have it.
Now I would like it, but I don’t think anybody outside of big 12 teams will watch it.

I think there is a good chance we’ll soon see bundling of the networks- if ESPN owns the expanded SEC and a ACC/Big 12 network that comprises nearly all the rest of P5.

An expanded ACC network footprint will help pay for ESPN keeping ACC leftovers whole through 2036. Particularly if ESPN builds in a lot of overlap between their two conferences (potentially in VA, NC, GA, FL, TX, KY, OK, maybe even AZ and KS).

If ESPN gets back in on BIG by helping to move PAC and ACC schools to BIG, maybe even all three.
 

isucy86

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I'm not sure comparing states is all that meaningful. States vary a lot in size and population. Texas is over 4 times the size of an average state both in area and population.
True. That is exactly the point with the current Big12- Texas and then 4 lower populated states.

Just not the formula for rolling out a dedicated Big12 Network to nationwide cable or streaming platforms.

But losing OU/UT could have some upside by allowing realignment to expand the Big12's reach. Adding schools in Florida, Ohio and Utah was a good first step. Hopefully, step 2 continues to grow Big12 visibility beyond the traditional footprint.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
True. That is exactly the point with the current Big12- Texas and then 4 lower populated states.

Just not the formula for rolling out a dedicated Big12 Network to nationwide cable or streaming platforms.

But losing OU/UT could have some upside by allowing realignment to expand the Big12's reach. Adding schools in Florida, Ohio and Utah was a good first step. Hopefully, step 2 continues to grow Big12 visibility beyond the traditional footprint.
The old big 12 had what was considered national brands to help it. A/M, Texas, Okie, Nebraska all pulled more than just their state so it worked out well. Why it's big to expand to other areas without those national brands.
 
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timinatoria

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Interesting, it shows market area, but I would not count that as an exact data source for actual market shares. It just uses google trends data, which is not equivalent to market viewership, nor fanbase numbers in a particular area. It is just google search based.
Totally get that. Not exact science by any means but found it interesting. Not sure it really means anything.
 

KidSilverhair

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The main risk is if there are no longer prime viewing windows available after consolidation, not necessarily that top new Big 12 games can’t draw well enough if given the spot.

Imo the most damaging part of consolidation isn’t losing the brands, it’s that the networks are financing the moves by basically paying to fill all their time slots in advance
This is what I was wondering about when they announced the B1G deal with Fox/NBC/CBS all getting regular slots in the Saturday schedule. Seems to me that ESPN/FOX are trying to fill up all the prime viewing windows with SEC/B1G content, which makes it more difficult for anybody else to get a game on somewhere other than FS1 or ESPNU or whatever.

Cord cutting is a thing, but OTA like Fox/CBS/NBC is still a big deal, along with ESPN primary, and if you’re locked out of those slots, it matters.
 
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cyIclSoneU

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This is what I was wondering about when they announced the B1G deal with Fox/NBC/CBS all getting regular slots in the Saturday schedule. Seems to me that ESPN/FOX are trying to fill up all the prime viewing windows with SEC/B1G content, which makes it more difficult for anybody else to get a game on somewhere other than FS1 or ESPNU or whatever.

Cord cutting is a thing, but OTA like Fox/CBS/NBC is still a big deal, along with ESPN primary, and if you’re locked out of those slots, it matters.

I agree and I think it is critical for the Big 12 to get one of the remaining CBS/FOX/NBC windows weekly in the next media deal. ABC and ESPN will be stacked with the SEC and ACC, but those other three channels are committed to only one game per week moving forward (or 1.5 if NBC re-ups with Notre Dame). Still other windows available.
 
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isucy86

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I agree and I think it is critical for the Big 12 to get one of the remaining CBS/FOX/NBC windows weekly in the next media deal. ABC and ESPN will be stacked with the SEC and ACC, but those other three channels are committed to only one game per week moving forward (or 1.5 if NBC re-ups with Notre Dame). Still other windows available.
Saw an interesting interview with Gundy. The other area that Big12/Pac12 might have to utilize is Thur/Fri night games.

Would be curious if a CBS, Fox or NBC would be interested in televising a Fri at 7p game each week. Then add a late night PT zone game on a secondary channel.
 
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Gonzo

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The conference paid out around 43MM per this past season.

So basically you think our new TV deal won't go over our current one? That doesn't seem likely.
The problem is going to be not having OU or UT, they were worth about half of your last media deal by themselves. And you're now going to be splitting the pie 12 ways instead of 10. Not saying the next deal won't be in the same neighborhood as the last one, maybe even a little more, but it's going to be tough getting a deal that brings a lot higher of a per school payout.
 

Cloneon

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The old big 12 had what was considered national brands to help it. A/M, Texas, Okie, Nebraska all pulled more than just their state so it worked out well. Why it's big to expand to other areas without those national brands.
They were national brands because there were only a few viewing options. In today's market, I doubt any of them generate the separation they did back. The next contract will be very interesting indeed. I just heard on the radio recently that streaming last year, for the first time, out did OTA and cable. The next phase of negotiations will be more time sensitive and eventually evolve into a distributed streaming model.