Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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KidSilverhair
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It is a good question.
On a 2-3 year rental....maybe, depends who is asking? The PAC is done the moment Oregon and/or UW leave, so it is this paradox in which being willing to take Oregon St gets you what you want. If the Big 12 were serious about taking AZ, Oregon, with Oregon St as the transaction cost, I think you'd see movement very quickly.
Is Oregon St too much of a a transaction cost? I prefer Cal and a Big 20 if venturing from the Big 18 setup
As confident as I am the Big 12 is in a good spot to be the base of the best of the rest (3rd "super" conference), that is only true if all members are committed. A Big 20, or even a Big 19 (Oregon, UW, 4 corners, Oregon St) may not be ideal mix but it is nearly certain the Big 12 is the base of the 3rd super conference at that point. It will likely lose a few schools, so there will be room for ACC when the time comes.
No movement, and it only takes WVU, Cincinnati, and one more to prefer ACC as base of 3rd super conference. WVU and Cincinnati would sign up for that P2.5, knowing worse case they'd be with ex-Big East and a few middle-class ACC schools, plus some of the best of the Big 12.
Say UNC is typical UNC and rather stay in a weak football ACC with Duke, NC St, and UVa, knowing eventually FSU, Miami, VT and Clemson go to SEC. It is not implausible that ESPN first convinces WVU and Cincinnati to join regardless of the risk the football schools leave.
Once that happens it would not take much to see KU go join the basketball schools of the ACC, regardless of risk football schools will leave. Then Houston and TCU for ACC Network implications. Maybe Baylor or Ok St for 16 or 20. If ACC football schools don't leave, it is a very good conference. If they do leave, they add UCF and maybe ISU or Memphis or even USF- ACC network will decide imo.
Could be bad news for ISU. But also the 4 corners, who are now without a good setup for when the BIG takes more PAC schools. Not all of them would be locks for an ACC that is after the Big 12 gets picked over first. Two AZ and Utah schools is not needed.. This is what I call the "nuke" threat by the Big 12.
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The Sicem guys numbers had Boise as a bigger draw than Oregon State too, which is very much not a good look for OSU
Sign me up for this. I think it makes sense for the benefit of most of the parties.This podcast from the Athlon Sports guys is a must listen. Start at the 28:00 mark.
Athlon U: The College Football Podcast
Football Podcast · Updated Weekly · Athlon U: The College Football Podcast presented by Athlon Sport previews and reviews every aspect of the greatest sport on the planet. Join Athlon’s college football expert Steve Lassan and sports p…podcasts.apple.com
The TLDR version:
B1G is currently evaluating Oregon/WA/Stanford/Cal
If B1G passes, than we get those four + the corners.
If B1G takes them, we still get the corners.
He spoke pretty confidently that
1. There is no way/no how the PAC survives.
2. CBS may be willing to over pay for an expanded and rebranded Big 12 (they’re in danger of being shut out of the SEC/B1G).
He went on to surmise, after speaking with industry sources, that the new look Big 12 could be playing Thur/Fri/Sat after dark games.
He sounded pretty confident in all this, and that we’ll probably learn about the next expansion moves within about a month.
I agree. That seems like a lot of mouths to feed, though, even if CBS overpays.
Or maybe you take Utah and Oregon St comes with Oregon. Option anyway.
UO is def going to be looking to jump to SEC if the B1G won't have them. but what a terrible geographic fit... idk if the SEC would take them just alone like that...
Could not disagree more. After what this conference has been through to be the one that survives is worth forcing all the pundits to say Big 12 over and over again.
The problem I have with SDSU everyone really thinks they are a great add, but last year, when they were 12-2, when to the MWC championship and won the Frisco Bowl, they had pretty terrible viewership, and attendance for them is even worse. Their viewership in an excellent year, was 78th in the country, below all the other G5s mentioned, and only averaged 198K viewers. That is not good.
What's worse is Cal is barely ahead of that, at 76th and 222k average viewers last year. And for transparency, with a year that Houston had, they didnt do very well either, considering.
Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021?
See which teams brought in the most TV viewers during the 2021 regular season.
Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021?
See which teams brought in the most TV viewers during the 2021 regular season.
6th largest TV market that was in the realm of a lot of G5s in viewership last year. No one is watching Cal. They averaged 222k viewers, all games including the high draw games. Thats not good.
You could change the name and still be the same legal entity for Autonomy and NY6 etc. But if the Pac dissolves into the B1G and Big12, they will want to rejigger who gets berths where etc.
The problem I have with SDSU everyone really thinks they are a great add, but last year, when they were 12-2, when to the MWC championship and won the Frisco Bowl, they had pretty terrible viewership, and attendance for them is even worse. Their viewership in an excellent year, was 78th in the country, below all the other G5s mentioned, and only averaged 198K viewers. That is not good.
What's worse is Cal is barely ahead of that, at 76th and 222k average viewers last year. And for transparency, with a year that Houston had, they didnt do very well either, considering.
Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021?
See which teams brought in the most TV viewers during the 2021 regular season.medium.com
If Houston (and SDSU) don't get decent bumps from being in the Big 12, this is kind of moot imo.
As you alluded to, the worst part of Cal is they've had the P5 advantage. Being in the top brand in the West, one people are still delusional about as this power conference, even though it has been easy to win compared to other P5s.
What happens when they are no longer equal to their historic peers in CA and west? Cal as an off-brand in its region, in a conference with 4 corners and Big 12?
Locally, I think they really suffer.
But due to the academics and history of being in the PAC, they are a name brand. Currently one that does not translate to viewers, but there is some upside for those in the Big 12 and others areas of the nation to watch them, if they are good, imo
My guess is Oregon/Oregon State combination would be breakeven +- for the Big12.
Oregon's upside value for Big12 is as a playoff team. National brand and hopefully Lanning is the real deal.
Plus, once we start hitting 20 team conferences, the dilutive effect of Oregon State on per school revenue is probably less than $1M/school. Not meaningless dollars, but to get Oregon and a solid rivalry game isn't a bad thing.
Are you even reading the posts you’re replying to? That scenario had Cal in the B1G, why are you talking about being G5?
Im just curious why people think SDSU is for sure going to get that much of a bump if they get added to a P5 conference.
They had less than a 3rd of the viewers than Boise St in the same conference when Boise St went 7-5, while they went 12-2.
They are in a much larger media market, without an NFL team now and still their viewership is horrible. I dont think the potential for a bump is as great as some think.
UCF had double the Viewership in a 9-4 year.
I think they get a bump, but much of that bump will come from the P5 schools not from them. They just dont seem to bring that many viewers even on their best years, a similar problem for Houston.
Would we be willing to give up a little revenue in order to get a 3rd super conference setup in which the Big 12 was the base?
A bit contradictory, as the more money we can make from adding schools, the more likely we become the 3rd super conference. But I'd take $35 million and removing the PAC over holding out for a combo that resulted in $40 million and missing the chance.
Maybe that risk is not there and if we wait, we'll get Big 18 or Big 16. I personally don't trust all schools in Big 12 if it is true that some were 5 minutes away from going to a PAC with the same issues as the Big 12 had with OUT.
I am not sure- but I am open to the networks thinking it will., although not likely imo. If ESPN eventually has plans to repurpose ACCN would be the one scenario that I think SDSU for sure moves up.
And if it factored in to the death of the PAC. I personally don't see why any average PAC school wants another PAC (or Big 12 school if they join) in CA. Just another peer competing in CA, but one that has the "local" card. But, there is some narrative that they'd like to keep a presence in southern CA
Imo a viewership bump does not really matter where it comes from. That is why the BIG and SEC are so strong- BIG fans and casual viewers watch top BIG games because they are top BIG games, with only the elite having a lot of variability. They don't care where or why those fans are watching. We wont cause the same level of bump, but if SDSU games draw materially better as a member of the Big 12, because they are now Big 12, the networks will be happy. Even if that is a bunch of ISU and KSU and TT fans watching.
Getting any strong penetration on CA viewers would be discounted in the network's models I assume. If college football is fading on historic PAC schools, I just don't see non-P2 schools pulling those markets (which is why the 4 corners going to Big 12 is more value add than B12 leftovers going west imo). But it seems like it is a little like recruiting, in which people (networks) may like upside that never occurs
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Schools like Houston and UCF can boom. It’s common sense they won’t have a huge following playing at a lower level. But it’s more than possible young fans/alumni will follow them more, if they are playing big boy college football. It’s like UNI being Iowa fans. If UNI made the P5/4/3/2.. they would be UNI fans.
I kind of think it’s as sime as if the Big 10 wants Oregon, they’re going. If the Big 10 doesn’t want them, I think if the corners go Big 12, Oregon is out of options. I don’t think independent is viable, so unless there’s an SEC Hail Mary, I think Oregon would pout and come to the Big 12.
My guess is Oregon/Big12 is one of two extremes where there’s zero chance, where Oregon is Big 10 bound OR where Oregon doesn’t have leverage.
With most of these I would prefer it if wasnt such a dip in per team revenue. Maybe with the OSU and WSUs of the world if Oregon and UW really wanted their in state brethren along, or their state legislatures held them hostage they could come in with several years of foregoing media $ to make it worth it. If it was that or MWC they would surely do it.
