Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

isucy86

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Those three protected rivalries for iowa wouldn't cause a problem because it is 1 good and 2 mediocre teams. Michigan is already throwing a **** fit and demanding rutgers as their third with sparty and OSU.
Thats why I think more protected rivals the better. Easier to balance out protected rival strength. Set each school up with 4-5 protected rivalries and then schedule the remaining games with an eye for creating comparable SOS over the 9 games.
 

WhoISthis

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I keep seeing that Apple/Amazon have some west coast preference. It's not like they're some local startups. They will go where it makes sense financially. Am I missing something?
I thought the connection to Pac was also due to being first non P2 up to bid, and likely more attainable.

I do think there likely is more corporate/social overlap with Pac though, and that factors into deals way more than we give it credit for
 

WhoISthis

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And puts the Pac 10 at about $25 million. Not sure they would leap to the Big 12 for $5 million more.
You mean at least $8 million (high to high comparison), because of T3 rights.

Why wouldn’t they move for $8 million? At that point you’re spending money just to save a rump Pac.

Leave for nearly 33% more, or stay and hope Stanford doesn’t leave and stay in a functional CA-less west coast based conference that’s been decaying for years even before departures.

It makes very little sense to stay if that’s the situation
 

FriendlySpartan

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Thats why I think more protected rivals the better. Easier to balance out protected rival strength. Set each school up with 4-5 protected rivalries and then schedule the remaining games with an eye for creating comparable SOS over the 9 games.
I think 4/5 protected might be too many as programs do rise and fall. To be fair the cali teams throw off a lot of the math with the protected rivalries but also I think teams would be more open to harder schedules once the playoff expands.
 

isucy86

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Except, every other place I have seen says, Big 12 is projected at $40M+ as we sit right now after a new contract in 2025 with the 4 new adds and OUT.

Also reported that ESPN has offered/valued $220M for the 10 PAC schools, meaning $22M per.

I'm not math genius, but my daughter is, so I consulted with her and she said she was confident that 40M > 22M, by a substantial margin.

One thing that makes TV money confusing is the Conference TV $, with ESPN, Fox, CBS or NBC are only part of the equation. There is also conference TV money related to championships- BCS Playoffs, Bowls, March Madness, etc. Its a pretty substantial % of the total TV $ for a school.

So when we hear the Big12 got $40M that isn't all from our Big12 agreements with ESPN & Fox.
 
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SCNCY

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The 500-600 million for the big 12 + PAC probably only includes television. I doubt it includes a conference championship game, bowl revenue, CFP, and NCAA bball revenue streams.
 

isucy86

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I think 4/5 protected might be too many as programs do rise and fall. To be fair the cali teams throw off a lot of the math with the protected rivalries but also I think teams would be more open to harder schedules once the playoff expands.
I look at the Hawkeyes and their fans would probably like to play: Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois every year. Other than Nebraska, Iowa has probably played those other teams for close to 100 years. Then rotate 5 other teams and try to equalize SOS's.

It seems like fans are getting forgotten in these behemoth conferences. I don't recall if it was last year, but UNC played Wake Forest as a non-conference game. I look at the ACC's proposed new schedule and playing 3 protected rivals seems to minimize the rivalries that already exist and have strong fan interest.

It might be good to make either USC or UCLA a protected rival of every current Big10 school. All depends how many Pac12 teams the Big10 takes.
 

FriendlySpartan

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I look at the Hawkeyes and their fans would probably like to play: Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois every year. Other than Nebraska, Iowa has probably played those other teams for close to 100 years. Then rotate 5 other teams and try to equalize SOS's.

It seems like fans are getting forgotten in these behemoth conferences. I don't recall if it was last year, but UNC played Wake Forest as a non-conference game. I look at the ACC's proposed new schedule and playing 3 protected rivals seems to minimize the rivalries that already exist and have strong fan interest.

It might be good to make either USC or UCLA a protected rival of every current Big10 school. All depends how many Pac12 teams the Big10 takes.
Yeah they played each other non con because they hadn't played in 5/6 years. I always forget that wake is in NC, having 4 NC schools is insane. Problem with the big ten is every school outside of PSU has rivalries that go back decades but many have become onesided to the point they aren't really a rivalry more just a team you enjoy beating or would hate to lose to.
 

Zyklon

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Just my opinion, but I disagree

But given they are otherwise on a 2016 deal for 14 more years, and then a few are homeless, I think they’d quickly love it

It’s basically the Big 18+ACC leftovers we want, that we’ve heard will make much more than current ACC deal, but swapping out lowest value in Big 12 and replacing it with lowest value of ACC. (All saving ESPN some transaction costs too)

The leftover ACC will make more over the next 14 years AND remove risk they are left out. Huge win
The PAC Big12 and ACC are basically arguing over which conferences are going to drop their 3-4 lowest performers. If 8 ACC teams get picked up by they Big10 and SEC, that means 6 are left, and half of them are in danger of being left out, so I agree with you that most of the ACC left behinds would vote for this scenario But, If they are relegated to the third tier conference, I don't think teams like Louisville, Pitt, or V-Tech really care if they go with teams like Boston College or Wake Forest. And I think that the Big 12 has by far the most valuable teams at the bottom. That could just be my bias though.

In the end though, what this plan would do is force the PAC schools (minus OSU WSU CAL) to choose whether they want to join the Big 12 with is bottom teams or the ACC with its bottom teams.
 

2speedy1

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One thing that makes TV money confusing is the Conference TV $, with ESPN, Fox, CBS or NBC are only part of the equation. There is also conference TV money related to championships- BCS Playoffs, Bowls, March Madness, etc. Its a pretty substantial % of the total TV $ for a school.

So when we hear the Big12 got $40M that isn't all from our Big12 agreements with ESPN & Fox.
Ah yes, good point.

But when others are talking $100M+ per for B1G I am sure that includes all of that too.

Seem like a lot of numbers are being thrown out there. And I have no idea who is including what in them.

Tier 1,2,3. Bowls, playoffs, ads. Conf pay, just tv money?

I think that is part of the problem with all of this, I have seen anywhere from 30-75M being talked about for the Big 12, that is a huge variance. And anywhere from 80-150M for the B1G.

Does anyone actually know, is it just guessing. I think its more of the same... a hell of a lot of guessing, with a lot of media types drastically undervaluing the Big 12 as usual.
 

jcyclonee

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Utah has a huge big bro complex about getting the p5 invite and BYU being left out in the cold. They have fans that went full Hawkeyes on my belly with Pac 12 tats, its all over bumper stickers, the conference logo is a huge part of their flex to BYU that they are the bigger program. They can't stand it that BYU will be in a power conference too, they really hate have to crawl for help to that same conference.
A conference tattoo is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard of.
 

WhoISthis

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The PAC Big12 and ACC are basically arguing over which conferences are going to drop their 3-4 lowest performers. If 8 ACC teams get picked up by they Big10 and SEC, that means 6 are left, and half of them are in danger of being left out, so I agree with you that most of the ACC left behinds would vote for this scenario But, If they are relegated to the third tier conference, I don't think teams like Louisville, Pitt, or V-Tech really care if they go with teams like Boston College or Wake Forest. And I think that the Big 12 has by far the most valuable teams at the bottom. That could just be my bias though.
Yes, there is a haggling over which conference is the base of the 3, although that being the Pac is by far the least likely imo. They don’t know who is in, and are in their window with bidders preferring they go east.

You mean if relegated to the middle class, 2nd tier? The better ACC leftovers would likely very much rather continue to play Wake than Iowa St or continue to play their Big East rivals. It would be like thinking Iowa St rather leave kansas st in favor of playing Cuse. Not happening