I think in the current climate you’re completely right. But if this evolves into being all about money, Rutgers brings your least brand recognition and value financially to the conference (I don’t have numbers in front of me just assuming).
It’s going to be really hard for Fox to sit on the sidelines and watch Rutgers play P2 games when people nationally don’t really care about them. Even regionally they aren’t that strong of a brand. Meanwhile, Oregon and Washington are going to be on the outside with much better national appeal.
None of us know where this is going. It’s all hypothetical but once the dam breaks on the ACC, B1G and SEC schools are going to have to be ok accepting members who lower their revenue distribution across the board or they’re going to hit a point where they have the right amount of teams.
It could essentially be a bad game of musical chairs where some decent brands aren’t part of the P2 and some bad brands where grandfathered in. At very least, it’ll be a consideration for TV networks to upgrade their portfolio by swapping better brands for bad brands currently on the inside. Especially if college football eventually leaves the NCAA.